Pierre-Edouard Bellemare should help the Avalanche

I joked last week that September 12 was the day to watch for as the Colorado Avalanche had made a signing on that day each of the last two years, but the organization got a headstart as NHL insider Elliotte Friedman tweeted earlier today that the Avs were bringing back veteran forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare on a professional try-out (PTO).

I wrote about this possibility already, but now that Bellemare is actually headed back to Colorado, let’s talk a little more about how he fits and why he makes sense for the team.

The fancy stats

Let’s start with the area I always like to begin with: fancy stats. Here’s the obligatory charts and graphs to give you a quick snapshot of what kind of player Bellemare currently is.

These all give you a clear picture of what Bellemare is today: a defense-only player who will not be asked to do much offensively but will give you the goods on the defensive side of the puck.

If you look at that middle chart, you’ll see that Bellemare was 10% better than a league-average forward in the defensive zone. Of course, he’s 8% worse offensively, but that isn’t why he’s being brought back to Colorado on a PTO.

From that top chart, you’ll also see that at least some of this success is driven by Bellemare’s deployment. He is playing with the weakest teammates against the weakest competition his coach can find for him. He’s a player who will need some level of protection.

Okay, but where does he fit on the Avalanche?

Bellemare wins faceoffs and kills penalties

One thing that has always made me laugh about touting a player with “penality-killing ability” is that anyone can be a PK guy. Their coach just has to use them that way, right? Thanks, Captain Obvious.

In Bellemare’s case, however, he’s someone who has consistently excelled as a PKer in his career. That slipped a touch last season but from the second chart above, we see that he was still league-average last season.

For the sake of comparison, Andrew Cogliano is the player whose role is most easily replaced by the addition of Bellemare. Here are Cogliano’s on-ice results last year:

At even strength, their results are similar. On the PK, though, we see that Cogliano was downright bad last year.

The other obvious area is that Cogliano was too frequently used as a faceoff guy on the PK as he led the Avs in shorthanded faceoffs taken. He won 31.8% of them. That means opposing teams won the faceoff and immediately setup their power plays 68.2% of the time. Not good!

Bellemare, on the other hand, won 51.8% of his SH FOs last season. In essence, if Bellemare makes the team, the Avs are getting a 20% jump in faceoffs in that specific area of the game.

The Avs badly needed it, too, because too often their PK was put behind the eight-ball because they couldn’t win a draw. That’s 20 extra seconds the Avs had to kill off each time they lost a faceoff. Bellemare immediately improves that.

If you were flipping a coin, wouldn’t you rather have a 50% chance of winning than 30%? That’s what Bellemare can do.

Where in the lineup would Bellemare play?

Fourth-line center.

As of this writing, the only other serious options at 4C are Chris Wagner and Cal Ritchie. The team had all offseason to commit to Wagner if they loved him in that role, but this PTO says the Avs are still looking to improve there. The conversation around Ritchie is complicated and one we’ll get more into this weekend as he heads to the Rookie Faceoff in Los Angeles, but he’s at least part of this.

Bellemare is a tried-and-true 4C in the NHL and even in Colorado, given his recent two-year stint as an Av. He fits this job like a glove, with one major caveat…

Can Bellemare keep up?

To me, this is the only reason this is a PTO. Bellemare will turn 40 in March, which is ancient by hockey standards (Cogliano, for example, was “only” 36 last year and looked completely washed by the end).

Skating speed has never been a hallmark of Bellemare’s game. He got to the NHL (at age 29!) on the back of his hockey IQ and defensive acumen. That’s how he’s stayed there. Those remain the pillars of his success.

We saw last year with Ryan Johansen just how bad it can look when a player physically can’t keep up with how the Avalanche like to play. In recent years, we’ve seen PTOs get to camp and simply cannot handle Colorado’s preferred pace and that’s the end of it.

With Bellemare, if he’s more Jack Johnson (passable, can still do what he does best), I expect he gets a contract. If he’s more Artem Anisimov (could not handle NHL speed anymore), then this PTO is unlikely to turn into a contract.

When training camp opens next week, this immediately becomes a top storyline to follow.