What do you even talk about in the summer if the Colorado Avalanche aren’t stressing over acquiring a second-line center to play behind Nathan MacKinnon? Thanks to the Gabe Landeskog/Valeri Nichushkin situations, there’s plenty to get into, but Casey Mittelstadt’s new contract with the Avalanche means the 2C won’t be a topic of discussion this summer.
Mittelstadt re-signed yesterday morning on a three-year deal worth $5.75M per season. The contract bought out two years of restricted free agency and one year of unrestricted free agency and will allow Mittelstadt to test the market when he’s 28.
When Mittelstadt was acquired by the Avalanche at the trade deadline in exchange for defenseman Bowen Byram, it was a blockbuster deal that addressed the biggest need on the roster since Nazem Kadri left in free agency for the Calgary Flames.
The results for Mittelstadt in Denver were mixed as his 10 points in 18 games is just a 45-point pace across an 82-game season, which would be a major disappointment for a second-line center on a Stanley Cup-contending team.
Those regular season numbers gave way to him producing nine points in 11 games in the playoffs, the first postseason appearance of his career, and he looked like he was settling into a real home with the Avalanche.
Uneven results for players acquired at the trade deadline is a tale as old as the deadline itself so I’m not going to make too much of that, but there has been a distinct trend in Mittelstadt’s career over the last two seasons that the Avalanche are banking on continuing.
Mittelstadt has had seasons of 59 and 57 points in the last two years, recording 116 points in his last 162 games after scoring only 80 points in his first 195 games. At just 25 (he turns 26 in November), this is the trend you want to see from a young player who struggled to find his legs but now clearly has.
This is where I always drop fancy charts and graphs on you because points are everything, so let’s get to that.
This is the clearest indication (beyond just points) that Mittelstadt has taken a serious leap as a quality NHL player. Where I have found these numbers to be the most surprising pushed up against his reputation when he was acquired is in the defensive results but I’ll get to that a little later.
This card above shows that Mittelstadt is a legitimate top-six center and in Colorado that means playing on the second line because, you know, Nathan MacKinnon. He’s not much of a shooter (see the card immediately below this) but he’s got a decent shot. He isn’t a guy who is going to be a major asset on special teams, but he’s showing himself to be quite a strong even-strength player.
These are the “microstats” where specific in-game plays are tracked. You see on the left column that you won’t be seeing Mittelstadt as much of a shooter, but all of the passing data shows he creates on the rush by finding his teammates.
He’s not a fast skater and he rarely gets it geared up as he’s a more deliberate player. He still finds success via transition because he’s so smart in reading the ice that he has turned into a quality defensive center and combines that with his playmaking prowess to be a threat through the neutral zone.
An area of his game that won’t show up on any of these stats is his work rate. I was pleasantly surprised to see Mittelstadt is a strong player along the boards and is a willing combatant in the greasy areas of the ice.
He is not a physical player at all, but he will not shy away from engaging with his stick and he is quite good at that.
And here we see that Mittelstadt isn’t a strong play-driver on his own with his offensive numbers in the negative, but -1% is essentially a league-average player in that regard. The defensive end, however, he really shines as his prevention is excellent at -8%.
Again, he’s not a player who should have a primary role on special teams, but he won’t in Colorado barring injuries (sigh).
Ultimately, this is a fair signing for both player and team. The Avalanche finally don’t have to spend every offseason chasing a second-line center and Mittelstadt gets a healthy bump from his previous $2.5M salary while playing on a premier offensive team that could see another leap in production for him when he gets back into the market when he’s 28.
Despite his defensive results, Mittelstadt still isn’t the defensive stopper at center the Avalanche could really use and he isn’t any good at faceoffs, another small area of the game Colorado badly struggles.
As far as a player fitting in with how the Avalanche want to play and being a stable piece to move them forward? Casey Mittelstadt checks that box with plenty of room to grow and improve over the next three seasons.
If the Avalanche move Ross Colton, the club’s third-line center, in a cost-cutting move, they will have to find an answer there and they don’t currently have a fourth-line center at all (sorry, Chris Wagner).
That said, the Avalanche are finally walking into the summer without having to stress about how to fill the second-line center spot, one of the hardest to fill once you have your top-line guy all sorted out.
Heading into the NHL Draft this weekend and free agency next week, the Avalanche now have their top two centers, top four defenders, and both goaltenders accounted for. There’s still plenty of work to do to round the roster into proper form, but that’s not a bad place to be as a starting point.
