Studs

Cale Makar

So, yeah, there were problems with Makar’s game. The pinch he made that turned into a Winnipeg 2v1 and Adam Lowry’s first goal that made it 4-3 in the second period? That was bad. It felt like it was happening in slow motion because I was saying, “Nooooooo” as it was happening and it turned out exactly as you’d expect.

That’s a bad play, a bad look. I get it.

But this guy had three points and you can wave them away and call them garbage time points or whatever but he was working hard and he was downright nasty with the puck. He was a difference-maker on offense and I really didn’t think his defensive game was a real problem, just imperfect.

In the end, Makar finished with 12 shot attempts, five scoring chances, and one high-danger chance in all situations. He was an offensive engine and this should be better remembered in the book of great Makar playoff games.

Miles Wood

Any regular reader of this space or consumer of the podcast is probably familiar with the, ahhhh, frustration that I felt about the inconsistent nature of Miles Wood’s game this season, especially near the end.

His speed always played but the rest of his game looked like there were no other facets to it, like a more financially secure Andreas Athanasiou.

The Avs paid for a speedster who loves to throw his body around and mix it up after the whistle. The Jets got the full Wood in this one as he scored a goal, hit everything that moved, and led the Avs with three high-danger chances created.

I don’t know if it can get any better than that but if Wood gives even 80% of this effort the entire series, he is going to be a gigantic pain in the ass.

The resiliency

I have never played in the NHL (you’re shocked to learn this, I know) so I can’t even imagine when you’re playing a pretty solid game and every scoring chance, and even some that aren’t, are ending up in the back of your net.

As a spectator, it has driven me bonkers. For the Avs, it looked like they were all towing the line of not throwing their goaltender under the bus but body language betrays us all in life and it was no different for the Avalanche skaters tonight. They were struggling to watch every broken coverage and mistake turn into a goal against and that type of stress will create more mistakes and more goals against as it turns into a negative feedback loop from hell.

Instead of folding as the Jets kept scoring in the third period, Colorado pushed and pushed and pushed and pushed. That’s the heart of a champion and what you really want to see. There was no true knockout punch from Winnipeg tonight. It was more like the cut man couldn’t stop the bleeding and they eventually ran out of rounds to keep throwing punches. It felt like the classic “five more minutes and we’d have beaten them” kind of third period for the Avs.

All season long we talked about the possibility of Colorado flipping a certain ass-kicking switch when the postseason began and I think there were shades of that tonight. The first ten minutes were completely dominant and even as the Jets steadied themselves and turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead, Colorado stayed on it and scored twice in 18 seconds.

What you saw throughout this game was an Avalanche team that was very down for the fight. There’s no way the Jets allow Game 2 to be as wide-open and high-flying as Game was but we saw the Avs find success grinding shifts out and using their physicality to build positive momentum, too.

I loved the heart.

Duds

Josh Manson

This is pretty weird to type about a classic defensive defenseman but I thought Manson was awesome with the puck and atrocious in his own zone. His turnover on the second Winnipeg goal was ghastly. A blind backhand into space when he had a chance to move the puck up the wall on his forehand? What are you doing?

Then he loses his man in front of the net on Winnipeg’s third goal. He spins around like a top with no purpose on the seventh goal. It was a mess in his own zone.

Now, this is the part where I mention how getting a save would be great. Manson was on the ice for three high-danger chances against. All three went in. You literally pay a goaltender to not let that happen, so that’s a tough one for Manson.

Devon Toews

I really struggled with Toews. I thought he was poor with the puck and his defensive reads weren’t very good either. I would love to know in their video session tomorrow who they talk to about that third Winnipeg goal. Yes, Manson loses Mark Scheifele in front and that’s very frustrating, but watch Toews.

Casey Mittelstadt goes with Kyle Connor behind the net and actually wins the puck battle, but Gabe Vilardi goes hard behind the net while Toews is standing there watching. He realizes what’s happening too slowly and Vilardi beats Toews to the front of the net with the puck, then makes the pass to Scheifele.

What is Toews doing the entire time? Did Mittelstadt need to make a different play with the puck? I’m not sure who to “blame” here because it looks like multiple breakdowns, but it’s safe to say that whatever Toews is doing did not accomplish the goal of, you know, playing defense.

Decide for yourself in the clip below:

Alexandar Georgiev

Like, let’s be real here. He gave up seven goals on 23 shots. That’s only a good save percentage if all 23 are clean breakaways. It’s insane to me that there is any conversation at all about Georgiev not getting “any help” in a game where his teammates allowed only 23 shots on goal and 16 scoring chances and seven high-danger chances at 5v5.

The Avs allowed six high-danger shots on goal and four of them went in. For comparison, Connor Hellebuyck faced 11 high-danger shots on goal and three went in. To make it even worse, Georgiev faced ten low-danger shots but allowed goals on two of them for an unsightly .800 save percentage. For reference, the average goaltender had roughly a .970 save percentage on low-danger shots this year, so an .800 is holy smokes bad.

For good measure, Georgiev gave up one medium-danger goal on seven shots. If you’re doing the math here, that’s 17 of 23 shots on goal at medium or low danger, which are the easiest shots to stop. Three of them beat Georgiev so even if you were trying to make a case that the defense hung him out to dry on the four high-danger goals he allowed (as noted above, he did not have a ton of help on some of them!), you still have three more goals to account for.

In my mind, there is no getting around this. The Avs allowed 1.38 expected goals against at 5v5. The Jets scored six times. There is simply no way on this planet you can look at Georgiev’s performance tonight and walk away thinking “that’s all the defense, AJ!” I’m sorry, the gap between hard data is simply too large.

Look at every other game played today. The expected goals range from 1.38 (Winnipeg) as the lowest to 3.03 (Colorado) as the highest. There were only 19 5v5 goals scored across four games and nine happened in this game (6-3 WPG). It is simply ludicrous to suggest that Colorado’s defense was some huge problem that never gave Georgiev a chance but that every other team that played today was better than the Avs defensively despite giving up nowhere near the same goals.

It just doesn’t square with reality and Georgiev is now a gigantic problem the Avs have to settle up with. He has been emotionally volatile all season and likely would have been pulled at some point in this game had Justus Annunen been available but he was a gameday scratch because of an illness. If Annunen is healthy for Game 2, the conversation about starting him has to happen.

If Georgiev is given the net again for Game 2 and Annunen is available, the leash has to be extremely short. Georgiev has run himself out of road as Colorado’s surefire starting goaltender.

Sports are an incredible avenue for redemption stories and I’d love for Georgiev to be one, but I certainly have no confidence that is how this story ends. His tenure as Colorado’s netminder should now be on a game-by-game basis.

Unsung Hero

Nathan MacKinnon

He was awesome offensively. He had two points. He could have had more with a little better puck luck at the start of the third period. He’s not a stud in here simply because his defensive game has me worried. He primarily drew Adam Lowry head-to-head and did just fine in that matchup, except for that goal where Lowry outworked MacKinnon to the front of the net for the fifth Winnipeg goal early in the third period.

If the Jets want to go Lowry against MacKinnon, I think the Avalanche will ultimately be comfortable in that position. Lowry shooting 100% on high-danger chances should be unsustainable, but I’d like to see MacKinnon execute in his own end a little bit better.

Holy smokes was he ever the offensive engine we have come to expect from him this season, however. He is a major problem for the Jets.