BSN Exclusive: Inside Colorado's approach to the 2018 NHL Draft

As the NHL Draft approaches, the Colorado Avalanche is facing a unique situation of not knowing exactly what to expect on Day 1. While the Avs hold their own selection at 16th overall, they also have an opportunity to acquire the fourth pick from the Ottawa Senators.

As part of the Matt Duchene trade in November, the Avalanche acquired Ottawa’s 2018 first round selection with the caveat that a pick inside the top ten would result in Ottawa having the choice to defer the pick to 2019. At the time, nobody saw Ottawa’s complete collapse coming and they finished 30th overall. Suddenly facing an expected rebuild amid organizational turmoil at all levels, the possibility remains the Senators might give Colorado the fourth pick and elect to begin gearing up for the future with their 2019 pick secured.

In talking exclusively with BSN Denver after concluding his annual media conference call, Avalanche director of amateur scouting Alan Hepple said the Avs were prepared for the moment in case Ottawa does decide to give them the selection.

“They have until they’re on the clock to decide,” Hepple told BSN Denver. “We tracked their standings as closely as we did Colorado’s down the stretch and made sure we had full coverage on all the top guys. If we get that pick, we’re ready.”

While it’s Hepple’s opinion, and that of conventional wisdom around the league that the Senators will keep their selection, the homework had to be done just in case.

Before getting into how Colorado goes through its draft process, we jumped back a bit and touched on last season’s draft class, beginning with Cale Makar. The fourth overall selection in 2017 decided a couple months ago to return to UMass-Amherst for his second season. When asked if he was disappointed in the decision, Hepple was quick to side with the player.

“I wouldn’t say disappointed,” Hepple stated. “It’s all about comfort for the player and he decided he wasn’t comfortable moving up to the pros yet. If he’s not comfortable, he’s not going to be successful so we’re very supportive of him going back for another year.”

While Makar didn’t quite have the year people were expecting, the jump in quality of competition from the AJHL to the NCAA was noticeable and Hepple admitted the transition might have been slower than expected.

“It was a slow start, for sure,” he said. “But [Makar] found his legs, especially after World Juniors and beyond and we’re excited to see what he does next year.”

It was at the World Junior Championships in January that Makar found himself sharing a blueline, and occasionally even the ice, with fellow 2017 Avalanche draftee Conor Timmins. The two excelled at the tournament in leading Canada to another gold medal as both were named among Canada’s top three players.

“That certainly was a proud moment for the Colorado Avalanche organization,” Hepple said. “I was there watching them and they both looked great and there was some pride knowing we took them and they were part of our future.”

And with that, the focus of the conversation shifted from the past to the present as the Avalanche has spent the last year preparing for this draft. With selections in every round and an additional pick in the second round courtesy of the Nashville Predators, Colorado is preparing to add eight players to their prospect system. The main purpose of my sitdown with Hepple was to see how the Avalanche got there and what their approach was in building their draft rankings.

In talking about American standout Jake Wise, who suffered a broken collarbone early in the year but finished strong, Hepple said the injury wasn’t enough to push him down their board and it caused no concerns long-term.

“With [Wise], the injury was early and our doctors were able to clear him and assure us there was nothing to worry about down the road,” Hepple said. “Because it happened early, we were able to get our viewings of him later but we felt good about his game and who he was.”

Wise is projected to go in the second round in part because of his injury but Hepple stated it was not something that played a role in their ranking of him. This is in contrast to the situation the Avs benefited from last year when Nick Henry, widely considered a second- or third-round caliber prospect, fell to the top of the fourth round because of a separated shoulder that required surgery and hampered him through the playoffs.

One of the interesting things teams have to face every year when stacking their boards is weighing the various opportunities to see players who might be playing in obscure situations but get opportunities internationally. One such case is Slovakian forward Oliver Okuliar, who spent the year playing in the Slovakian junior leagues. While his production was impressive, it’s difficult to get out to see all the players in the lower European leagues, especially Slovakia versus the higher caliber Swedish, Finnish, and Russian leagues that regularly produce more talent.

In the case of Okuliar, however, he was given an opportunity on the international stage at the Under-18 World Championships at the end of the season and scored eight points in five games, tying him in points with likely first-rounder Joel Farabee. So how exactly does a team approach ranking a player like this?

“The ability to see them internationally is huge,” Hepple began. “When a guy is playing in lower leagues across Europe, they can be tougher to get to at times but playing against their age group internationally is always a key for us. Some guys we get to see a lot more often, especially in the CHL, but for a guy like that, the exposure on the international stage is a difference maker.”

While Hepple naturally wouldn’t divulge how the Avalanche ultimately saw Okuliar specifically, he did say those guys are always fun to watch on draft day because teams always value them so differently.

Speaking of obscure places to play, this year’s draft curiosity is Liam Kirk, a forward who played for the Sheffield Steelers of the Elite Ice Hockey League, located in England. Such standouts of the league include former Avalanche draft pick Luke Moffatt, who finished eighth in league scoring. The question with Kirk is obviously how you evaluate a potential pro prospect playing in a league that simply doesn’t produce NHL players.

“In my 20 years of doing this, I can’t recall a player coming out of there,” Hepple admitted. “It’s pure projection with a kid like that because you watch him play and you can’t tell if he’s making his linemates better or not because his linemates are no good. We met with him at the Combine and we’ve talked to his coaches and various people around him to get a feel for how coachable he is. A guy like that needs to be very coachable because he’s never had the same kind of coaching these other kids have in his entire life. A kid like that, it’s a projection.”

Among the other situations facing the Avs next week is the case of a player such as Adam Mascherin, a second-round selection of the Florida Panthers in 2016. For whatever reason, the relationship between Mascherin and the Panthers never resulted in a contract offer and Mascherin is going through the draft process for the second time. Unlike many players who don’t get NHL offers from their drafting clubs, Mascherin has been healthy and very productive in his two years since being drafted, scoring 186 points in 132 OHL games. What’s the approach with a player like this come draft day?

“Well, the book on him is obviously bigger,” Hepple said with a laugh. “We had our evaluations from two years ago and we’ve followed him since then. About halfway through the year, it became clear, and I’m not sure if it was the player or the team, but it became clear there was not going to be an agreement. Once that happened, we devoted more time to him and made sure we had the proper coverage and checks on him.”

Running down the list of interesting situations a team faces in a draft year, maybe no player represents a tougher decision-making process than that of Ryan Merkley. An extremely talented defenseman with ability widely viewed as worthy of the top five, Merkley is a player whose significant off-ice issues will likely see him drop to the late-first round, if not out of the first round entirely. When asked about the Merkley situation, the typically affable Hepple stiffened significantly.

“He’s a very talented player, “Hepple said after six seconds of silence. “His ability is there and that’s about all I should say about him. There’s just too much going on with him beyond that.”

On the topic of the game’s most polarizing position, Hepple and the Avalanche are like all teams this year: Unsure of what to make of a particularly volatile class at the hardest position to project.

“The goalies…they have their own process, get their own list,” Hepple explained. “This year has been a bit tougher because guys are all over the place. The guys we identified early maybe didn’t perform the way we expected and some other guys stepped up and had great years.”

Given Colorado has taken two overage European goaltenders the last two years, I asked if I should simply pencil in Veini Vehvilainen, who is going into his third draft cycle and just backstopped Karpat to a championship in Finland’s top pro league, as the man for Colorado this year, Hepple couldn’t help but laugh a bit.

“No, I wouldn’t do that,” Hepple cautioned me while still chuckling. “The key is just getting guys who have a net. There are only so many of those jobs out there and drafting guys who have a net is the key for us. It wasn’t part of a plan but it just worked out that way the last two years.”

Does having the extra second-round pick make it easier for the team to pull the trigger on a goaltender in a round they haven’t used one since taking Calvin Pickard in 2010?

“For us, there is only one guy who stands out that high for us,” Hepple said. “For us to take a goalie that high, we would have to be all-in on that player. The extra pick gives us choices but, again, the goaltender list is different and we would really have to be comfortable to do that.”

And last but not least, the 16th pick that Colorado knows for sure; Any hints?

“Best player available,” Hepple said, reiterating what he said on the conference call earlier. “We’re targeting players with hockey sense and skating. They have to be able to think the game at a certain speed and play the game today. Size is not as big a factor anymore because the league is going the direction it is.”

It’s almost downright refreshing to hear the Avalanche are almost dismissive of size after years of targeting big players, simply for the sake of getting bigger. As they continue to transition away from those days, the team is hoping its new emphasis on speed and hockey IQ will translate to the NHL sooner than later.