Where do the Avalanche go from here? We have some suggestions

Despite an unexpected, almost historic playoff appearance, the road for the Colorado Avalanche to return back to legitimate Stanley Cup contention remains daunting. It was an impressive bounce-back season for the franchise as they enjoyed a competitive first-round series after a 95-point season, a 47-point improvement from the tire fire of last year.

The series against the Nashville Predators exposed a number of deep flaws that still exist for the front office to tackle and while Sakic expressed rightful optimism at his season-ending press conference Monday, the work in some ways is just beginning. Getting back to the playoffs was a beast of an accomplishment given last year but it was the easy part. The Avalanche have had encouraging one-offs of making the postseason in 2009-10 and 2013-14, only to fail to repeat that success the following year.

Why will this coming season be any different? What must be done to make sure it wasn’t another one-and-done?

Let’s step back and take a look at some of the most important issues facing the Avalanche this summer.

Address goaltending

Semyon Varlamov finished the year on injured reserve (again), Jonathan Bernier couldn’t stay healthy the final couple of months and even Andrew Hammond battled the elements down the stretch. Colorado’s pipeline for goaltenders is basically non-existent right now, as prospect Spencer Martin (who is an RFA this summer) has failed to take significant steps forward since turning pro three seasons ago.

Varlamov has one year remaining on his contract with a salary cap hit of $5.9M so expect him to be back. A strong showing from Bernier in the playoffs against the Nashville Predators could have placed him at the forefront of a weak UFA goaltender class to potentially get a starting job somewhere (Islanders? Sabres?) but he failed to produce impressive results and he mostly reinforced that he’s a high-end backup who can start for teams in a pinch.

That track record and reputation makes him a perfect fit to return to the Avalanche but it depends on what he wants and what the market is offering. If someone is going to pay him starter money, he likely will not return. Unless Bernier re-signs, the Avalanche will once again be in the market for a backup goaltender.

The Avalanche have been connected to goaltender Pavel Francouz, who currently plays in the KHL and might be looking to come across the pond. Beyond that, they would have to wade into an uninspiring class of free agent goaltenders, not just for their NHL backup but for a third goaltender to split time with Martin in Loveland with the Colorado Eagles. They have two spots to fill and a lot of questions surrounding the long-term future of the position.

Find another impact player

This one is going to be difficult. With so much youth on the roster, it’s a fair expectation that a handful of players take significant steps forward in the next year or two. Tyson Jost, Alexander Kerfoot, Sam Girard, and J.T. Compher are among the main players whose development could limit Colorado’s need to import much help from around the league.

That said, the playoff series against Nashville showed the Nathan MacKinnon line could hang among the league’s very best and it still wasn’t enough to get them through the first round. Simply put: they need more talent, especially a player that changes opposing team’s game plans.

The Carl Soderberg line was made up of players looking to bounce back from bad seasons and they were admirable in their role as the de facto second line and defensive stopper, but they were clearly overmatched from a talent standpoint. Going into next season, only Soderberg should have a realistic shot to be in the top cluster of forwards for time on ice.

The Avalanche have a ton of cap space and can afford to take a swing at this year’s top free agents. From John Tavares to John Carlson, the Avalanche can find impact players at the highest level who would have a transformative effect on their roster. Even if they don’t swing quite that high, Calvin de Haan is the next-best defenseman potentially available and forwards such as James van Riemsdyk and Evander Kane are eligible to hit the open market. Any one of them would bring a dynamic element Colorado clearly was lacking in their playoff series against the deep and talented Predators.

Stay committed to youth

With all of that said about the free agent class, Colorado needs to carefully walk the line and not go crazy. We’ve seen huge UFA spending sprees lead to limited success (Minnesota) or expensive and embarrassing buyouts (Philadelphia, Buffalo). The Avalanche just spent a year committed to developing young players in the NHL. They need to continue down that path and not go crazy just because they have the money to spend.

A smart, measured approach to free agency where they identify specific players who are either obvious home runs (Tavares, Carlson) or players who can come in an fill a specific role. The Avalanche aren’t so loaded with quality young players they don’t have room for upgrades.

As Blake Comeau is set to be a free agent, Sakic’s comments about getting even younger might be an early signal that he is unlikely to return. Other players who may find themselves in doubt of being brought back are Soderberg (unlikely but possible) or Colin Wilson (would there even be a taker at this point)? But Colorado needs to manage the temptation of having as much cash to burn as they do with a market that doesn’t justify huge spending beyond the top tier (which actually does justify big dollars for once).

Ultimately, this version of the Avalanche is going to take steps forward or once again stagnate based on the development of the young guys who are already in Denver or who will be making a push very soon (A.J. Greer, Nicolas Meloche, Conor Timmins, Cale Makar, Vladislav Kamenev, Shane Bowers).

Get ahead of the contract curve

This is a piece of business we have not seen the Avalanche get done at any point in recent history. As bridge contracts largely fall by the wayside, Colorado has gone with the flow and locked up MacKinnon after his entry-level contract expired to a long-term contract or continued to find bridge deals when necessary (Nikita Zadorov last fall).

This summer, a handful of players are entering the final years of their ELCs and Colorado would be wise to make serious overtures to lock them up long-term. Of the players who are in this position, the ones of interest are Kerfoot, Compher, Zadorov (one year remaining on his bridge, not his ELC), and Mikko Rantanen.

Of those, Compher is probably the one you wait on, Kerfoot is a toss-up but you’re again probably waiting, and then Zadorov and Rantanen are the guys you really want to get locked up. I’ve long said an appropriate contact comparable to Zadorov is Michael Matheson ( of the Florida Panthers and nothing from the past season has moved me from that opinion.

Matheson signed an eight-year, $39M ($4.875M AAV) contract with Florida in October of 2017. Their profiles are similar and while I think it would be smart for Colorado to not go with that kind of term and maybe a bit lower AAV, that’s the ballpark of a realistic long-term contract for Zadorov. If the Avalanche wants to wait another year and see if Zadorov continues to take steps forward, it likely won’t cost them much additional money on a contract because defensive defensemen don’t get contracts nearly in the same range as defenders who produce points.

With Rantanen, the Avalanche have a trickier situation. His 84-point season likely puts him in the range of getting a contract somewhere between what Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M AAV) and David Pastrnak ($6.66M AAV) signed for but the question of whether or not the Avalanche establish a “MacKinnon ceiling” (meaning nobody makes more than their best player, who is on a huge discount at just $6.3M AAV) to operate under. With another year to go, again Colorado can wait and see how Rantanen produces before giving him a long-term contract but if he repeats his performance from this year it could cost them millions per year.

The smart bet is to lock Rantanen up now for as cheaply as possible. It would also represent a change in philosophy as the Avalanche front office has yet to sign one of these contracts prior to the expiration of an ELC but it’s a move that would show Colorado can keep up with the changing times.