The Colorado Rockies can absolutely afford to sign Nolan Arenado to a lucrative long-term extension.
Anyone who has watched him closely in his career doesn’t need justification for why this is a good idea, but briefly: he’s a generational talent and maybe the best defender at his position ever, he is one of the best clutch hitters in the game, if not the best, he is beloved by fans and teammates, and he has a remarkably easy to fathom path to becoming the single greatest player in the history of this franchise.
Now that we’ve established Colorado should offer their star third baseman whatever it takes to keep him in purple, maybe even for life, let’s take a look at what that might look like.
As it stands, Nolan is set to become a free agent after the 2019 season, making 2020 the year we need to examine in order to determine just how the Rockies can pull this off.
Pre-Blackmon Rockies 2020 Payroll:
Wade Davis: $17 million
Ian Desmond: $15 million
Jake McGee: $9.5 million
Bryan Shaw: $9 million
Chris Iannetta: $4.25 (club option)
Total: $50.5 million ($54.75 million)
If they choose to pick up Iannetta’s option—meaning that his play has warranted it—the absolute most Colorado has written in stone for their 2020 ledger is $54.75 million. That doesn’t sound like much but that was before the news of the Charlie Blackmon extension.
We don’t yet know the exact year-to-year breakdown of Blackmon’s deal but we know it averages out to $18 million a year and we know that he will be making $21 million in 2019. We’ve also seen with the Desmond deal that the Rockies like to get creative with how they structure these things, so let’s project a high end and a low end for what he is likely to make in 2020.
Charlie Blackmon: $21 million
Projected Total: $71.5 million ($75.75 million)
Blackmon will make $21 million in the first five years of the deal, coming down to $10 million if he picks up the sixth-year option. This brings our 2020 total to $71.5 million with a possibility for a little more if they hold on to Iannetta.
That’s not terrible, but it is for only six players.
Now, it’s Nolan’s turn. With this kind of talent, and at the age he will be signing a deal, the numbers can get insane. But Arenado has also made it clear how much he would love to play in one place his entire career. That is, as long as they are winning. Assuming the Rockies would be willing to add some player options and no-trade clauses similar to what they gave Blackmon, I could see the price on Arenado coming all the way down to an average value of about $25 million. Especially if Colorado is willing to dole out the years.
They’ve also just sent him a clear message about valuing loyalty, hard work and—most importantly—winning.
Nolan Arenado: 10 years, $250 million – $25 million AAV (10 years, $300 million – $30 million AAV)
At the higher end, it’s perfectly reasonable for Arenado to expect to get paid like a superstar in this game and for the Rockies to acquiesce. A 10-year, $300 million contract would make him among the highest paid players in the game at a time when those kinds of deals are becoming much less popular. It would be about on par with the 13-year, $325 million deal Giancarlo Stanton originally signed with the Miami Marlins.
Projected 2020 Total with Arenado and Blackmon: $96.5 ($105.75 million)
2018 Budget: $141.4
Even at the highest end of our projections, with a huge deal for Arenado, the Rockies could still have just under $36 million to spend on the rest of their roster in 2020.
If Nolan signs a more team-friendly deal, Colorado could be looking at about $45 million for the rest of the group.
And that’s all without considering extra money that could be brought in from multiple postseason appearances and a pending need for a new TV deal.
Those wondering about the younger players getting more expensive, only Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Trevor Story will be in the second years of arbitration, keeping them relatively affordable, only pushing the budget if they’ve performed exceptionally.
After that, as those players reach higher levels of arbitration (where the real money is) and a few others—Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, etc—join them, most of the other big contracts will be coming off the books.
In 2021, the only guys under contract are Desmond and McGee, for a combined $17 million, and now Blackmon.
All offseason, pundits and fans have been suggesting the Rockies may be in for a kind of last hurrah in 2018. But the news of the Blackmon extension and it’s team-friendliness mean this team could be competing for the NL West crown well into the next decade.
And they can do it with their heart and soul—two of the greatest to ever pull on a Colorado Rockies jersey—leading them all the way.

0 Comments (3 conversations)
Joe
Rockies opening day payroll for this year (2018) was $141 M, not 121…look at that, we just got another $20 M to play with, let’s re-sign DJ too!!!
Joe
Wait, check that. I just did the math. Taking the high end scenario, we’ve got 105.75 M committed to a total of 7 players. Even if we fill out the rest of the roster with league minimum rookies (about $600,000), that’s another $11 M between 18 players, getting us to a total of about $116 M.
Bettis & Rusin will be in Arb 3 years – let’s assume an average of $4 each (pretty low estimate I think)
Gray, Anderson, Story, Oberg, and Wolters will all be Arb 2 – hard to predict these too, but a reasonable low-end guess might be under $15 M for all 5 of these guys
And Marquez, Freeland, Estevez, and Valaika will all be Arb 1 eligible – again, hard to predict performance, but under $8 M for all 4 guys seems in the right range as of now (Freeland and Marquez will get at least the $2M arb-1 amount Bettis is getting this year, probably more).
Of all of the Arb-eligible players above (11 total), that’s another $31 M, plus we will assume 7 league minimum guys to round out the roster ($4.2M) brings us to a grand total of basically right at $141 M.
So, unless there is a considerable payroll increase, there isn’t much payroll flexibility. Even Nolan taking a $5M/year hometown discount doesn’t get you enough to sign DJ most likely. Of course, a lot will happen between now and 2020, but it is interesting to think ahead and try to get an idea of what the front office is thinking long-term. However it shakes out, I’m going to love watching Charlie run out there in purple for the next 6-years!
Drew Creasman
AuthorAbsolutely. And good job on guessing for the ARB guys, that all sounds about right. This is why I think DJ is likely a goner unless both he and Arenado take some significant discounts.
But even then, as you said, they can do it and just move forward with little to no payroll flexibility. It’s when you start thinking about the possibility of an increase in the budget and a better TV deal that the mind starts to race at everything they could do. If they so choose.
Juan Pablo Zubillaga
Nice job Drew. I really have to tip my hat to you on basically flying solo for some time now, even before Jake left. You’ve a done great job balancing the podcasts AND getting a lot of written content out. Personally, I really appreciate it,it must be exhausting! Keep it up man.
In regards to the Blackmon news, I’m pretty stoked. Not only because of what he can bring to the table, which is a big deal in and of itself, but as you’ve pointed out, it really looks like it makes an Arenado extension a lot more likely, which would be HUGE.
I agree that DJ is probably the odd man out and that sucks, but as you’ve said, they have options there if Rodgers pans out, or even moving McMahon to second, moving Desmond permanently to 1B, with Dahl and Tapia at the corners.
Looking forward to at least 4 more years of contention. Go Rockies!!