Predicting the Colorado Rockies 2018 season

It’s here.

No more waiting to find out who made the roster or if any last second veteran signings will be made. No more games whereby the seventh inning even the most diehard of fans are quoting Major League: “Who are these guys?”

The 2018 MLB regular season has arrived. And it is set to be a glorious one for the Colorado Rockies.

Predicting baseball is a bit like trying to get into an in-depth and informative conversation on Twitter. It’s not impossible but most of the time everyone involved is just going to look silly by the end.

There are so many unpredictable factors that go into what we might generously call “educated” guessing in this game. There’s the ever-present caveat that a few devastating injuries can derail even the most dominating of clubs. There’s the fact that baseball lends itself more to random guys you’ve never heard of bursting onto the scene (hello Ryon Healy hitting 30 home runs last year) or the inverse where elite guys turn into pumpkins in the midst of their prime for no discernable reason. Looking at you, Tim Lincecum.

Take the Colorado Rockies biggest offseason news. No, not the $106 million they doled out in the bullpen, the news that Carlos Gonzalez would be returning for his tenth season in Denver.

Who is CarGo?

At 32-years-old, coming off a season in which he was one of the worst players in baseball until the final month-and-a-half in which he was one of the best players in baseball, nobody should be shocked if he either bats .210 in the first half or if he sits around .290 and already has 20 home runs by the All-Star break.

Most players don’t have as wide an outcome range as that, but the Rockies, for all we have been confident in their positive direction even before the results began to show at the MLB level, have a roster filled with guys who could be anything from major disappointments to absolute superstars. And now I’m looking at Trevor Story.

Therefore, the following predictions must be taken with a veritable mountain of salt:

Biggest Rebound – Ian Desmond

It would be tempting to pick Trevor Story in this category as I believe he is primed for a huge year (more on that in a minute) but Story had a great campaign in 2017 from a defensive standpoint, still showcased his impressive power, and finished on a strong note.

As much as I have defended Desmond’s subtle contributions a year ago, his contributions before joining the Rockies never used to be quite so subtle. He returns this year to being a 20/20 guy and while wRC+ and the like will still probably see him as a poor offensive weapon, he will give Colorado a huge boost that they didn’t get from him last year and he will finally get to fulfill the role they envisioned for him.

Biggest Regression – Gerardo Parra

It should absolutely not be understated how important Parra was for the Rockies in 2017. Batting .309 in 115 games was more than impressive coming off his dreadful 2016 season, but it was the remarkable production in the clutch (71 RBI) that made him so valuable.

But while guys like Nolan Arenado have, I believe, shown a true clutch gene, it did feel more for Parra like a bit of a fluke that every hit he got seemed to come with somebody on base. It’s just unlikely to play out like that again.

His health issues the past few years and a poor finish to the season have me thinking he slides back down toward his career averages and settles in as a bench player rather than an everyday player for Colorado.

Surprise Series – In Miami

The Colorado Rockies will… not be swept in Miami this year.

Best Pitcher – Jon Gray

But if anyone challenges for his mantle, I’m taking German Marquez. Given enough innings, Gray will get Cy Young votes in 2018.

Best Position Player

I mean…. Nolan, right? Or Charlie. Or Nolan….

Best Reliever – Chris Rusin

This is going to be hilarious. Wade Davis should be great, don’t get me wrong. I also expect big things from Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, the latter of which I almost picked here because he will throw a ton of innings. But despite those guys making the big bucks, it’ll be the unassuming Chris Rusin who once again acts as the anchor of the relief corp.

Taking the over on 1.5 times he makes Justin Turner visibly angry.

Transaction of the Year – Charlie Blackmon Extension

Colorado will burst out of the gates, everyone will be feeling great, Coors Field will be packed and the writing will be on the wall that this team has a chance to be closer to a dynasty than a flash-in-the-pan. And then we will hear that Jeff Bridich and his team have managed to secure the face that runs the place. The beard the whole world hears. Rockies fans will rejoice as Blackmon signs on for a few more years in Denver.

First-Time All-Stars

Jon Gray and Trevor Story.

This is the year that Story emerges as the third amigo. With all due respect to the most underrated, or at the very least most overlooked player in the game, DJ LeMahieu, superstardom in this game is nearly impossible to achieve without the big, flashy home run.

Story has the whole package and we’ve just begun to see him put it all together. He will hit in the .260-.290 range with at least 30 home runs and be nominated for his first Gold Glove.

DJ LeMahieu’s batting average – Over .300 … again

For the fourth year in a row, people will doubt LeMahieu’s bat when it goes into a momentary slump and for the fourth year in a row, he will prove that singles are not accidents. Very few people outside of Colorado will care.

Biggest Hit of the Season – Raimel Tapia

I have no idea how much run Tapia will get in 2018. But much like we did with Pat Valiaka a year ago (which turned out to be true late in the year in Kansas City) Tapia seems primed to rise to the occasion in a huge moment when his team needs him the most.

Rookie of the Year – Ryan McMahon

The NL Rookie of the Year, not just for the Rockies. Bonus prediction: McMahon will get RoTY votes but David Dahl will actually end up contributing a bit more in terms of overall value. Both players will be in the starting lineup for the postseason. Which brings me to…

Win Total – 90 Games

Going back to our caveats, nobody can say for sure what a team with so many moving pieces can do over the course of six months. But this is a 90-win team. They’ve got veteran talent with strong ties to each other and the organization, playing for either one last hurrah or to prove to management that they should be kept together.

They’ve got a parade of talented youngsters, eager to make an impact and prove they belong at the MLB level.

But most importantly, they have assembled the single greatest pitching staff in franchise history.

Some injuries inside the division, a bit of regression from the Los Angeles Dodgers, and their insane depth will lead Colorado to the second 90-win season their history.

Let’s play ball.