Diagnosing the Nuggets recent second-half swoons

The Denver Nuggets first half against the Orlando Magic Tuesday night was proceeding like clockwork. Denver raced out to a 47-40 halftime lead, forced 13 Magic turnovers and managed to go 4-9 from 3-point land.

The clouds were clearing and the sun was beginning to shine through as Denver held Orlando to a paltry 39.5 percent shooting and somehow shutout Orlando on the perimeter. (Although, the Magic shooing 0-8 from distance had more to do with the Magic not hitting shots than the Nuggets perimeter defense.)

Then, something happened that’s beginning to evolve into a predictable script of sorts.

Another all-to-familiar second half swoon.

After scoring just 27 point throughout the third and fourth quarters against Orlando, Denver is now averaging a pedestrian 46.2 second half points per game this season, which ranks them 29th in the league — just 0.9 points ahead of the offensively-inept Milwaukee Bucks.

In the last seven games, where the Nuggets have posted a 2-5 record, their second half offense has slipped even further to 39.1 points per game, or dead last in the league — 4.6 first half points less than 29th ranked Charlotte Hornets. The gap between Charlotte at 29th and Denver at 30th is roughly the same margin that’s between Charlotte and the Memphis Grizzlies who rank 19th in second half points.

It remains a mystery how a team with an embedded home court advantage like Denver can have all of it’s energy zapped from them after the halftime break, but it shouldn’t be a surprise because it’s been the case all season. Head coach Michael Malone and his players keep searching for answers, but after games they seem to be more befuddled and at a loss for words about the issue.

Let’s examine a couple reasons why this team has been so hard to watch in the second half this season.

Injuries leading to fatigue

The injuries, which have been a dark cloud looming over this organization for the past few years are back.

Denver has been without two players who figured to play major roles in Wilson Chandler (out for the year after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right hip) and Jusuf Nurkic (out indefinitely while rehabbing from a torn patellar tendon). Gary Harris, who started the first 16 games of the season, has missed the last six contests with a concussion, Joffrey Lauvergne, who started Denver’s first three games of the year before missing the next 13 with a back strain, is still getting back into game shape and Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur have been in-and-out of the lineup with ailments of their own.

Those injuries have led to Randy Foye starting and playing nearly 30 minutes per game since Harris went down, and Mike Miller averaging 12.5 minutes per game during Denver’s last eight games — about 12 more minutes than he thought he’d play when he signed here as a free-agent this past summer.

With non-rotational players like Foye and Miller being pressed into bigger roles than required and playing key second-half minutes because of the injuries suffered by the guys who should be on the court, it’s no wonder teams pounce on the Nuggets late in games.

“[Fatigue is] no excuse. We’re in the NBA we should be in shape,” said an exhausted Will Barton after Monday night’s loss. Barton was gassed coming to the bench with 6:01 left in the fourth quarter and he and Danilo Gallinari, the one guy who can consistently create a look for himself in a half court setting, have been pigeonholed into supplying nearly the entire offensive load for Denver.

By the time the second half rolled around, Gallinari, who was visibly fatigued after played 39 minutes in Philadelphia and then 38 against Orlando, had nothing left. And Barton was in the same boat after running wild all game long trying to be Denver’s spark on offense.

Pace, but then precaution

Denver is 18th in the league in pace and a healthy 13th in first half pace. So, the Nuggets are getting up and down relatively well early in games. Yet in second halves, Denver’s pace slips to 22nd in the league. With minimal players capable of creating offense as aforementioned, this team doesn’t have the personnel right now to craft an innovative half court offense when the pace drops and the game slows down.

It’s no secret that when the Nuggets are in transition, they are at their best. Gallinari is averaging 1.68 points per possession (ppp) in transition and Barton is scoring 1.31 ppp, No. 2 and 21 in the league respectively, per Synergy. But in the half court without consistent creators, this team struggles.

“I don’t know what it is. I can’t put my finger on in it right now,” Jameer Nelson said in response to what the Nuggets second half issues stem from. “It’s happening a little too often. When teams make a run, we drop our heads and get a little tighter. We don’t play the right way.”

Part of it could be the fatigue factor, but another portion of it could be that when the pace slows down, Denver’s youth — which isn’t as comfortable in the half court as they are in transition — shows its true colors.

“Getting a little tighter,” as Nelson put it, leads to little to no movement away from the ball as we see below:

The little off ball movement allows the Magic defense to collapse and suffocate Foye. While, Gallo and Nelson do little to help their guy out in the corner.

The tightness also leads to broken plays like this one below that result in really difficult and forced shots at the end of the shot clock:

Look at that play again. A sideline out of bounds set where no contact is made on screens to free up shooters. Cuts and passes are not happening or they are so delayed that it is not conducive to getting easy looks in the half court.

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Orlando came into Denver on the fourth of their five game Western Conference road trip where they visited Minnesota, Utah and Los Angeles (where they spent an extra night under the bright lights) and yet they looked like the stronger team in the second half — when they should have weakened in the Altitude.

The Nuggets second half struggles come down to all the contributing factors above. Denver’s injuries have called upon veterans to play minutes they simply aren’t equipped for, Gallinari and Barton are burdened with carrying the offense and then in the second half, the fatigue begins to set in, limiting the Nuggets willingness to get out in transition and Denver morphs into a half-court, inefficient offense.

I joked after Monday night’s game that maybe the new locker room was expanded onto an Indian burial ground, or the new leather chairs and plush dark blue carpeting inside is too comfortable. Something happens between those walls during those 15 minutes in between the second and third quarters and it should be the players’ and coaching staffs’ No. 1 priority to figure out what it is.