The Root of Varlamov's Early Season Struggles

There’s no denying that Avs’ top goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, has had a rough start to the year.  After two seasons of stopping 92% of the shots he faced and only allowing around 2.5 goals per game, he’s suddenly dropped to an .892 save percentage and a goals against average well above 3.

In today’s goaltending-reliant league, those sorts of numbers make it very difficult for any team to win.  The Avs are no different.  This year, they’re 4-7-1 in one goal games (.333), which places them 27th in the league.  Varlamov is 2-4-1 in those situations.  He’s also 4-5-0 in games where the Avs’ skaters have done their job and scored 3 or more goals.  Roy was even quoted as saying Varlamov was “lucky” to be 5-7-1 prior to Thursday’s contest due to his lackluster play.

While there’s no question Varlamov is an elite goalie, even the best go through cold streaks. It’s also no secret that the Avs defensive scheme, instituted by new assistant coach Dave Farrish, puts a very high value on blocking shots.  This unfortunately interferes with Varlamov’s athletic style, which is most effective when he can see the puck.  Add in a less than stellar defensive corps, and it provides a large number of potential culprits when it comes to Varlamov’s goaltending struggles.

So, who’s to blame? Is it the Avs defense, defensive system, or Varlamov’s individual play?

For the answer, we’ll turn to War on Ice and take a look at the 40 goalies that played a minimum of 400 minutes prior to Saturday’s games.  The site breaks down shots faced by said netminders into three category: low, medium, and high danger chances.  While the exact definition is a little complex, essentially far away and most blocked shots are low danger; unblocked shots from home plate are medium; and crease, rebound, and rush shots are considered high danger chances.

With this in mind, let’s look at each of the potential culprits, starting with the Avs D.  Varlamov has played 666.3 minutes and faced 320 shots, which equates to 28.8 shots/60 minute game.  While that sounds somewhat high, it’s actually right around the average of 28.5 for top minute goalies.  For comparison, last season he faced 31.7 shots/60.  Even though the Avs D still has their issues, this drastic improvement makes it hard to pin Varlamov’s problems on them.

The next culprit is Farrish’s defensive system. The Avs’ commitment to blocking shots certainly shows, as they currently lead the league in the stat with 452.  Likewise, Varlamov leads with nearly 19 blocked shots in front of him every game, well above the average of 13.5.  This increased traffic is one possible reason why Varlamov’s low danger save percentage clocks in at a league worst 94.6% instead of the expected 97.4%.

However, when you look at last year (which is pre-Farrish), Varlamov still faced over 17 blocked shots per game.  Furthermore, based on the number of low danger shots he’s seen, even if he was closer to average, he would have allowed only 4 fewer goals.  Not even his outstanding 2013-14 numbers could have saved him, as a .982 save percentage would have resulted in a whopping five goal credit.  Given the Avs one goal game record, these goals aren’t insignificant, but they are only a drop in a much larger bucket.

Instead, let’s look at his individual play, especially when it comes to high danger shots.  Since these are chances in very tight or off the rush/rebound, they’re by and large one-on-one battles between the goaltender and the shooter.  This season, Varlamov has a high danger save percentage of 74.7%, far below the  average of 84.4%.  If he was at the expected level (or his average from the past two seasons), he would have allowed only 13 goals from this range instead of 21, a difference of 8 tallies.

While the Avs defense and Farrish’s system might have some effect on Varlamov’s play this year, it’s hard to argue that the goalie himself doesn’t deserve the lions’ share of the blame.  That’s not to say he’s suddenly a bad goalie, but he certainly hasn’t been the rock the Avs have need this season.

With strong performances in his last two games, it’s very possible that this extended cold snap is ending, but the damage may have already been done to the Avs playoff chances.  Even though this isn’t all Varlamov’s fault, he needs to rediscover a way to be a consistent cog driving the club forward instead of the weak link holding them back.  He certainly has the talent to do so, but the sooner he regains form night after night, the closer to relevancy the Avs will be.