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Peyton Manning's lack of 3rd down success another justification of benching

November 19, 2015

Are Peyton Manning‘s days in Denver done?

OK, let’s not go that far, even though some think so.

Manning’s injured and Gary Kubiak insists he’s still the Broncos quarterback when he’s healthy. Which makes sense; the 39-year old is one of the greatest to ever play the game and he possesses the unique experience of playing in three Super Bowls. Brock Osweiler may be younger, faster and have more zip on the ball, but he has zero postseason experience. Heck, he barely has any regular season experience, making his first start this Sunday, ironically against Jay Cutler, John Fox and the Chicago Bears.

The truth of the matter is, Manning may be injured now, forcing Kubiak’s hand to sit the 18-year veteran, but No. 18 has struggled all season long. Especially on 3rd downs.

Pro Football Focus came out with a list of best and worst offensive players on third down this season, and there’s Manning’s name among the worst quarterbacks.

His 31.1 percent conversion rate is fourth-worst in the NFL, behind Alex Smith (26.5%), Ryan Tannehill (27.8%) and Russel Wilson (29.0%).

Team	Quarterback	Dropbacks	3rd-and-8+ yards	Percentage of passing plays on 3rd-and-8+	1st down	Touchdowns	Conversion percentage
CLE	Johnny Manziel	47	26	55.3%	13	3	34.0%
KC	Alex Smith	98	52	53.1%	24	2	26.5%
MIA	Ryan Tannehill	90	47	52.2%	22	3	27.8%
HOU	Brian Hoyer	71	37	52.1%	24	4	39.4%
DEN	Peyton Manning	103	53	51.5%	28	4	31.1%
NFL	League total	3,269	1,469	44.9%	995	131	34.4%
ARI	Carson Palmer	86	33	38.4%	30	8	44.2%
WAS	Kirk Cousins	105	40	38.1%	41	7	45.7%
SEA	Russell Wilson	93	35	37.6%	24	3	29.0%
ATL	Matt Ryan	105	37	35.2%	40	4	41.9%
PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	57	20	35.1%	24	1	43.9%

(Table credit: Profootballfocus.com)

Converting on 3rd downs is a key factor for allowing offenses to flourish; sustaining drives leads to scoring points.

What must be noted when looking at this table is that Manning has more passes on 3^rd and 8+ (53) than any other quarterback in the NFL. What that means is not only has Manning been a let-down, but so has the entire offense, on 1^st and 2^nd downs. They’re setting themselves up with far too many 3rd-and-long situations, making it easier for the defense to read, react and ultimately force Denver to punt the ball away.

The simple fact is this: Denver must play better offensively to give themselves a shot in the playoffs and to win Super Bowl 50. Whether that’s with Osweiler or Manning at quarterback.

John Elway knows it, Gary Kubiak knows it, players and fans know it.

Now, we all get to see what happens next. And, it’s possible coaches will utilize this statistic — once Brock accumulates opportunities — to help determine who should start.