Avalanche Roundtable: Matt Duchene's struggles, Patrick Roy's roster quirks

The losses to the Blue Jackets and Panthers were nothing short of disheartening for most Avs fans. Colorado followed up with an impressive victory over Tampa Bay. What are you biggest takeaways from this week’s slate of games?

Evan: My takeaway is that this team still doesn’t have a real identity or a whole lot of chemistry at this point in the season.  There are a lot of new players on the team, and it doesn’t seem like they know what they want to be yet.  I look at a guy like Carl Soderberg, who I think has been a lot better the last 5 or 6 games.  He really likes to be patient and hold onto the puck in the defensive zone, rather than dumping it off the boards and out.  When he looks to reverse it back to the defense, sometimes they aren’t ready, because it’s not something a lot of Avs forwards have done the last few years.  That’s something that will come with time.

Regarding an identity, I remember in the Dallas game, they were extremely physical and eventually wore down the Dallas defense with that physical play.  I was hoping that would be a sign of things to come, but we really haven’t seen much of that yet.  This week I think they’ve shown signs of really strong even strength play, but I’m not sure they’ve put together a full game where they’ve controlled or matched the other team in possession, and that’s not a recipe for success, especially when the special teams play has fallen off a cliff like it has.  They need to find some consistency or risk falling out of the race very early in the season.

Cheryl: Well, I wouldn’t call the win over Tampa “impressive” necessarily. There were some ugly moments, and without Semyon Varlamov returning to form, that would have been another loss. That fact highlights my biggest takeaway this week: without superb goaltending, this team cannot win. Another takeaway is that the root of Colorado’s problems is in the systems Patrick Roy has put into place. A moment in the Tampa game solidified that belief for me. Erik Johnson made a move on the power play to enter the Lightning’s zone. He crashed towards the net and had the penalty killers scrambling.

However, instead of getting a shot off—relying on the fact that two Avalanche players were entering the zone and could jump on a rebound—he peeled back towards the halfboards and set up on the point. These extra seconds gave Tampa the time it needed to establish their defense, forcing Johnson to pass the puck. This was so clearly a set play, and it worries me that players will skip opportunities in order to enact an established system. It worries me that Roy is so focused on his ideas that he’s missing other ways this team can generate offense.

J.D.: First, the Avalanche aren’t dead in the water. There is hope for them to become the team everyone hopes they will be. They have shown flashes of brilliance and have improved in some areas. They just look like they need time to put it all together. Second, they are still finding their identity. A third of the players are new to the team so finding lines that work well together may take a bit. Third, this season may be a roller coaster ride as we watch the team evolve, but that carries an excitement of it’s own.

Cole: This stretch of games is really a great microcosm for what the Avalanche are all about right now: they’re a downright terrible possession team with some significant top tier talent.  When you’ve got that odd combination of traits you really have no choice but to live and die by percentages and individual performances.  The win over the Lightning was a nice team effort (at least through the first 40), but the victory happened because Nathan MacKinnon, Jarome Iginla, and Semyon Varlamov absolutely took over that game with dominant individual performances.

Let’s talk about the most divisive figure on the Avalanche right now – Matt Duchene. How worried are you about his poor statistical production and what does he need to change to get headed in the right direction?

Cheryl: I’m not worried. Duchene goes through periods like this where his lack of production snowballs in on itself and the more he pressures himself, the more difficult it is for him to break out of the slump. But when the dam breaks, it breaks, and he starts putting up points at a fast clip. I think it’s more disconcerting that the team in general seems to suffer from a lack of confidence, identity, and leadership. The team appears rudderless, and that adds to Duchene’s struggles. He, like many players on the team, thrives on stability and synergy. If someone were to grab a hold of the boat and start steering it, Duchene and the others would right themselves.

Evan: I really think Duchene has played pretty well for the last 4 games.  Against Florida, he created a lot of chances for his linemates but they weren’t able to bury any goals.  Against Columbus, I thought he was the best player on the ice for the first 30 minutes or so.  We all saw the ridiculous save Bishop made on him against Tampa.  Eventually, the bounces will go his way.  I do think it’s interesting how Roy has started to criticize him a bit more to the media, considering he’s usually very protective of his players.  Even if he’s playing a lot better, the team can’t survive without him producing, so we’ll see if Roy’s new tactic has any effect.

J.D.: For the Avalanche to have the kind of success they desire, their star players need to play like stars. Duchene has room for improvement in that regard. He had a great shot on Ben Bishop only a minute into the Lightning game but the fact it didn’t go in seemed to get in his head. He needs to dig down and find a way to focus less on playing a perfect game and more on playing an effective game. He’s had good chances to shoot the puck on net but seems reluctant to take them.  Instead, he tries to make another pass or moves around the net or a defenseman. He’s making the game too complicated.  I’d try finding him linemates he can enjoy playing with and see if he rediscovers his game.

Cole: I’m extremely worried about Matt Duchene’s production. Yes he’s caught some bad luck with highlight reel saves from Cam Ward and Ben Bishop (though I still think the shot vs Carolina was headed wide) but would 3 goals and 1 assist really be acceptable performance for the Avalanche’s highest paid player and supposed face of the franchise after 9 games? No.

Yes, Matt Duchene could use more help from his linemates, yes he could also use a lot more help from his coach, who continues to put him in less than ideal situations.  But at the end of the day great players find ways to produce and Matt Duchene just isn’t doing that and it’s very easy to point to a number of individual missed opportunities so far this season.   Duchene’s 55 points last season were a big disappointment but now at just an 18 point pace over the first 10% of the season he’ll be lucky to catch that mark.

The Avalanche are purposely keeping 12 forwards on the roster and playing Semyon Varlamov on both nights of this week’s back-to-back. What do you make of these decisions by Patrick Roy?

Evan: I’m OK with them keeping only 12 forwards at this point.  The only forwards that I would want to call up are guys like Rantanen, Hishon, Martinsen, or Rendulic, and I don’t see the benefit of those guys sitting in the press box when they can be playing games in the AHL.  If an injury occurs, I don’t think going a game with 7 defensemen is an issue, but it’s not something I would want to keep doing for more than a game or two and at that point, I’d hope they bring up a forward.  Regarding Varly starting back to back games, I think it’s an easy decision.  He had a few days off, and he’s coming off his best game of the season, so I think you have to put him back in there and let him continue to get his game back on track.

J.D.: Until all of our forward lines find some chemistry working together, I am all for Roy carrying 12 forwards. As for Varlamov, he stepped up his game to the level we have grown accustomed to seeing. Riding the hot goalie is not a new concept in the NHL. Of all people, I trust Patrick Roy to know when to make that call. Two thumbs up.

Cole: Historically speaking, starting the same goalie on back-to-back nights is an almost guaranteed handicap to your team.  Normally I’d be more critical of Roy’s choice to start Varlamov a second night in a row, but the Russian netminder has had a tough start to the season and if starting tonight hot off a great performance in Tampa Bay helps Varlamov to shake off some of that funk then it’s worth it in the long run.  Roy’s Avalanche have always lived and died by their goaltending, so getting Varlamov revved up is absolutely critical to saving a season that’s starting to slip away.

As for Roy carrying just 12 forwards, it’s not going to make or break this team by any means but it is an unnecessary risk.  Players can and do get hurt during warmups and Roy is keeping his team one foul step or errant puck away from running 11 forwards and 7 defensemen.