Denver Nuggets on outside looking in of Western Conference playoff race

 

Any time you have a trip planned to Las Vegas, somebody inevitably will tell you that the extravagant casinos weren’t built by giving away money. Vegas knows too much. So, when the Nuggets 2014-15 over/under win total was released by Bovada.com at 41.5, instead of asking myself why the win total could be so low – I immediately assumed the Nuggets would eclipse that mark. And then the 30 win season happened in what turned out to be Brian Shaw‘s last stand in Denver.

Perhaps I’d become too accustomed to seeing the Nuggets win regular season games. Consider that in George Karl‘s seven full seasons as the Nuggets head coach that he averaged 50.4 wins (taking out his partial 2004-05 first season and the lockout shortened 2011-12 season). Karl liked to say that winning games in the regular season was difficult, I never fully appreciated that until the Shaw era.

Teams have to have a little luck in the regular season whether it be: avoiding major injury, benefitting from the schedule makers and various other nuances. The Nuggets suffered injury-after-injury in the Shaw era and lost their fair share of games to teams coming into Denver on the second night of a back-to-back – both major no-nos for racking up wins.

Thinking about win totals got me thinking about how the eighth seed will play out in the Western Conference. Let’s take a look at where Bovada.com has their over/under win totals for this season, and how those numbers increased or decreased from the previous season’s actual record. The first team we’ll see is the Dallas Mavericks, who had an over/under set at 49.5 for the 2014-15 season, finished with a 50-32 record, yet have seen their over/under drop -12.5 games to 37.5 this season, and so on…

2015-16	Wins 2014-15	Change from 2014-15	Over/Under Wins
Dallas Mavericks	50	-12.5	37.5
Denver Nuggets	30	-2.5	27.5
Golden State Warriors	67	-7.5	59.5
Houston Rockets	56	1.5	54.5
LA Clippers	56	0.5	56.5
LA Lakers	21	7.5	28.5
Memphis Grizzlies	55	-4.5	50.5
Minnesota Timberwolves	16	10.5	26.5
New Orleans Pelicans	45	3.5	48.5
OKC Thunder	45	11.5	56.5
Phoenix Suns	39	-2.5	36.5
Portland Trail Blazers	51	-24.5	26.5
Sacramento Kings	29	5.5	34.5
San Antonio Spurs	55	3.5	58.5
Utah Jazz	38	3.5	41.5

 

If we base the 2015-16 playoff seedings on Bovada.com’s numbers, the Western Conference will play out like this:

2015-16	Over/Under Wins
1.) Warriors	59.5
2.) Spurs	58.5
3.) Thunder	56.5
4.) Clippers	56.5
5.) Rockets	54.5
6.) Grizzlies	50.5
7.) Pelicans	48.5
8.) Jazz	41.5
9.) Mavericks	37.5
10.) Suns	36.5
11.) Kings	34.5
12.) Lakers	28.5
13.) Nuggets	27.5
14.) Blazers	26.5
15.) Wolves	26.5

Pulling in the win totals from 2014-15, Bovada.com had eight teams with over/unders set at 49+ wins. As the season played out, they were not too far off as the seventh seeded Mavericks finished with the aforementioned 50-32 record, followed by the eighth seeded Pelicans nabbing the final seed with a 45-37 record (in a tiebreaker with the ninth place Thunder). It took 45 wins to get the final playoff spot in the West.

This season, only six teams in the West have win totals over 49+ with the Pelicans sitting with an over/under of 48.5 wins. So, Vegas is viewing the Western Conference as being a little bit weaker than last season. Could a win total under 45 games earn a team the right to play the top seed come April?

The Pelicans are already dealing with the injury bug as point guard Jrue Holiday will be on a minutes restriction through January, in hopes of not creating problems for his lower right leg and guard Tyreke Evans, again, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his bothersome knee.

The latest blow is arthroscopic knee surgery for Tyreke Evans, his second such procedure on the same knee since May and his third since he arrived in New Orleans. Considering the Pelicans are not exactly forthright with injury information, how long exactly he will be out is something that may not be known until he returns. That said, if Evans is out until January, which seems at the very least possible, it may be time to ask the question that no one wants to ask.

In fact, the Pels are so hard up for healthy bodies that they recently signed former Nuggets guard Nate Robinson – who has yet to return to form following his own ACL injury in 2014.

No matter how you slice it, the teams that will be in the hunt for the final playoff spot out West all come with major questions heading into the season.

Pelicans: Injury concerns, new head coach in Alvin Gentry (phenomenal hire) and they still have superstar Anthony Davis – who is just 22-years-old.

Jazz: Dante Exum‘s sophomore season was cut short with an ACL injury suffered this past August and he will miss the 2015-16 season. Can the Jazz come together and make a playoff push?

Mavericks: How much of a load can 37-year-old Dirk Nowitzki carry this season in Dallas? Deron Williams (calf), Chandler Parsons (knee), JaVale McGee (leg), Wes Matthews (Achilles) and Sam Dalembert (knee) have yet to step on the floor together this preseason – only Dalembert has played, amassing a total of 42 minutes. How quickly can that team come together without a proper training camp?

Suns: They are building around new additions in Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight (came over at the trade deadline last season), but the Markieff Morris situation has yet to be fully resolved. Will the Suns hit the ground running or will they suffer team chemistry issues, not too dissimilar to those the Nuggets faced over the past couple seasons…

Kings: A team that doesn’t lack for talent with DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo, but how will they blend with George Karl’s system? Karl was able to elevate the Seattle Supersonics, Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets – can he do the same in SacTown? It may sound a little crazy, but I have less questions about the Kings than I do the Pelicans, Mavs and Suns.

Lakers: I’m quite interested to see how Kobe Bryant will blend with D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Roy Hibbert and Jordan Clarkson. The Lake-Show could be better than expected and they certainly won’t be a rollover win.

Nuggets: Can Denver translate some of their preseason success over to the regular season? If Michael Malone focuses on playing the young guys (who have been playing very well) over chasing wins with guys like Randy Foye and J.J. Hickson, the Nuggets should exceed their measly 27.5 over/under. Can Denver stay healthy? How much will missing Jusuf Nurkic hurt and how quickly can he blend into the mix when he returns? Mental toughness will be a battle for the Nuggets all season, especially with 19-year-old Emmanuel Mudiay running the show against elite point guard talent.

Blazers: How far can Damian Lillard carry the once mighty Blazers? The team is completely remade with new additions: Mason Plumlee, Maurice Harkless, Noah Vonley, Ed Davis, Phil Pressey, Al-Farouq Aminu and Gerald Henderson.

Timberwolves: They have a bright future with Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine, but are they ready to help lead the way for the team this season?

If the Nuggets are to get anywhere near the playoff picture this season, a long-shot anyway you cut it, they’d have to surpass their predicted win total by at least 14 games. Bovada.com’s over/under totals ranged widely in actuality last season. Six teams finished double-digits better or worse than their predicted totals in: the Nuggets (-11.5), Warriors (+16.5), Lakers (-11.5), Wolves (-10.5), Thunder (-12.5) and Jazz (+14).

The Nuggets have seen some major downs over the last three seasons going from 57 wins, to 36 and 30 last season. The hope is that this team will be the one who bucks the downward trend and starts to build back up. But how far can the Nuggets climb?

Would you bet on the Nuggets or would you bet on Vegas?