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BSN Breakdown: The Denver Broncos' most revealing stats of the (quarter) season

Ken Pomponio Avatar
October 8, 2015
McManus

 

Even if you only have managed to catch a half of one of the Denver Broncos’ four games so far, you’ve no doubt heard all about Peyton Manning’s decreased touchdown-to-interception ratio or the sacks Wade Phillips’ defense is bagging at a league-leading pace.

But there are plenty of other telling stats and notable numbers from the first quarter of the Orange and Blue’s season that are just as revealing – and probably even more so.

And for the sake of proper context, we’ll classify them under one of three categories:

The stellar

  • If third down is the most important down in football, then the Broncos’ defense is truly the best in the league, opponents have only converted 25 percent (12) of their 48 third-down opportunities. No other defense currently is doing better than 30.6 percent, and the best season-long mark in the league over the last six campaigns was the Lions’ 30.3 percent rate in 2011. Credit the Broncos’ work on earlier downs – particularly their league-low 3.74 yards allowed on first downs – for putting the opponents in unfavorable third-and-long situations.
  • Of all the intriguing and revealing “Quality Stats” found on the Cold Hard Football Facts website, the analytics organization’s Real Quarterback Rating metric (explained here) has proven to have the strongest correlation to victory. The stat was introduced in 2011, and during the previous two seasons, including the playoffs, the teams finishing with the higher Real QB Rating in a particular game compiled a .861 winning percentage. This year, through four weeks of play, teams coming out ahead in that particular stat battle are winning at a .903 clip, going 56-6. With Manning off to a slow start, the Broncos rank 25th in RQBR at 74.43, but defensively, only the Jets’ 52.54 RQBR is better than Denver’s 55.0 so the net differential of 19.43 has the Orange and Blue in real strong shape.

The slipshod

  • In terms of big plays – classified as rushes of 10-or-more yards and passes of 25-plus yards – the Broncos have been lacking this season. According to the folks at Sporting Charts, Denver has had 12 (six of each) this season among its 254 total offensive plays to come in at 31st in the league with 4.72 percentage. Only the winless Detroit Lions have lower marks with eight big plays among 238 for 3.36-percent rate. Yeah, not good.

The surprising

  • As you may well know, the Orange and Blue are tied with the Panthers for second in the league with 11 takeaways (six interceptions and five fumble recoveries), and that’s led directly to 29 Denver points. On the flip side, the Broncos have turned the ball over six times – their five interceptions and one lost fumble are tied for 12th in the league – and, according to Sporting Charts, opponents have turned those charitable miscues into 28 points. So that leaves the Broncos with a net gain of a single point so far. Fairly shocking considering all the good the Denver D has done.
  • We’ll close, though, with a decidedly more pleasant surprise, and it comes in the kicking game where Brandon McManus has converted all nine of his field goals, including a trio of 50-yarders, and all 10 of his extra-point attempts from the new 33-yard distance. That makes the Broncos one of nine teams with a perfect success rate in both areas – and a minority in a league where kicking fails have drawn negative headlines in a number of games. In short, it’s been a welcome development for the Broncos and McManus given his struggles that led to his release a season ago.

 

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