All-in on the home dogs, plus one huge upset for our Week 15 NFL picks

 

For those of you who don’t care how we come to our predictions, and trust us with our 27-25-2 record on the year, you will find the picks at the top of these posts for the rest of the season. The explanations for them are below. Enjoy!

The BSN picks of the week:

Denver Broncos +3 vs. New England Patriots

Chicago Bears +6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

San Diego Chargers +3 vs. Oakland Raiders

Los Angeles Rams +15.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

It’s another week of NFL games meaning another week of picks courtesy of our two trusted metrics YPP and EW that have been with us all season long. After a nice Week 14 for YPP, we have some very intriguing differentials this week with seven games that diverge from the numbers by 5 points or more – our preferred differential for YPP to bet on.

Interestingly enough this isn’t a week that has several large differentials in the double digits – something we’ve seen before and was a bit of a warning sign – instead, all but two of the games have divergences in the 5-6 point range, another positive sign.

EW had a tough week last time around after having been on fire the previous two as the slim margins – EW has been right on top of the Vegas lines – finally caught up. This week EW is again very much in line with the actual spreads with five exact spreads and eight more with differentials less than 3 points.

With all this, our metrics offer up some juicy opportunities in Week 15 with three consensus games and one YPP pick of the week that’s just too good to pass up. After a tough outing in Week 14, the numbers make sense this week, the picks are clear and there was really little stress in making these selections.

So without further ado here’s our picks with all the reasoning behind it, plus our numbers below and much more. Let’s get to it.

BSN ATS’ picks of the week

Denver Broncos +3

There isn’t a team or stadium in the NFL that has Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s number like the Denver Broncos do. The Patriots with their two Hall of Famers have gone 2-and-7 in the Mile High City including the playoffs. That’s no fluke. Based on that alone we should feel pretty good about this pick and our numbers are in firm agreement. YPP has the Broncos as 2.5 point favorites in the suggested spread while EW has Denver as 0.5 favorites (basically making the game a pick’ em).

Based on that alone we should feel pretty good about this pick and our numbers are in firm agreement. YPP has the Broncos as 2.5 point favorites in the suggested spread while EW has Denver as 0.5 favorites (basically making the game a pick’ em). The Broncos rank sixth per YPP while the Patriots are third meaning these two teams aren’t all that different based on their 2016 on-field performances, add the home field factor and it all makes sense why our numbers feel this way.

The big question here is who will take advantage of the miss matches in this game? Expect New England to try and run as much as possible while also using their backs in the passing game in hopes of isolating members of Denver’s depleted inside linebacking core. While Denver will have opportunities to exploit the Pats cornerbacks with their start wideouts and their offensive line in pass protection. Those matchups on each side will be huge.

We’re counting on the home factor making the difference in this game, give us the Broncos for the big upset.

Chicago Bears +6.5

What has happened in Chicago as of late? a team that YPP has liked all year long is finally proving the metric correctly with some important covers the last couple of weeks. Matt Barkley hasn’t necessarily been the catalyst for that change but he has played better than expected and allowed the Bears to play mistake free, all be it conservative, football that’s allowing their defense to shine. Just last week the Bears gave the NFC North division-leading Detroit Lions all they could handle on the road only to lose by three points.

On the other side of the ball, we have a Green Bay Packers team that’s found its groove as well the last few weeks with the offense awakening. After consistently inconsistent outings and Aaron Rodgers not seeming like himself, the Cheese Heads have now won their last three games coming off of an impressive 37 point thumping of the Seattle Seahawks. Which is why this line is so high despite Rodgers suffering a right calf injury and exiting the game vs the Seahawks early in the fourth quarter, which should help the Bears defense.

EW likes the Bears to cover having the Packers at only -3 and YPP is very high on Chicago having them as outright favorites by a touchdown for a massive 13.5 differential, our largest of the week.

Sure the numbers don’t account for the sudden change in play by Green Bay, but Chicago’s high ranking regardless of all the changes at quarterback and other issues they’ve had is remarkable. 6.5 is just too much for this inconsistent Packers squad on the road where they’re 2-and-4 this season. Give us the Bears to cover again against a hot divisional foe.

San Diego Chargers +3

Here we have two teams who seem to have fallen off a bit. The Chargers have played some fine football at times this year though they haven’t always been able to pull off the win at the end, while the Raiders just had their worst offensive performance of the season in large part due to a Derek Carr pinky injury.

Carr’s performance is likely the only reason this line is even this low as it would likely be in the 6 point range or higher if there weren’t concerns over him missing passes like he did against the Kansas City Chiefs this past week.

Last time these two teams played the Raiders barely squeezed out a 34-31 point win in Oakland, which given the circumstances already makes the -3 seem high this time around. Oakland’s problem has been their defense especially against the pass where they’re allowing the sixth highest total of yards per game in the air (264). That should be a huge miss-match for Phillip Rivers and the Bolts aerial attack that’s been playing well and averaging 263 yards per game.

On paper this seems like a slam dunk and even when we consider a few absences for the Chargers – Melvin Gordon being the biggest one – we still like San Diego to make this a close game at home for the cover. Our YPP spread has the Bolts as 6 point favorites for a massive 9 point difference

A bonus YPP pick that was too good to pass up

Los Angeles Rams +15.5

There’s so much going on with these two teams right now and the Rams especially who just fired their head coach, which has seen this line climb even higher in favor of Seattle.

But the Seahawks are also coming off an embarrassing loss to the Packers by 38-10. Their run game isn’t working and their offense has struggled in their last two road games combining for 15 points. Seattle is a very Jekyll and Hyde team with their performances at home being much more convincing than what they’ve shown on the road.

The Rams on their side have beaten the Seahawks the last three outings holding them to 3 points in Week 2 in their last win. They’ve also won four of the last five meetings and have just dominated the matchup lately. Which makes this huge spread, that’s only climbed more since Jeff Fisher’s firing all, that much more appealing.

The Rams are struggling offensively, lack an identity and are now trying to bring along rookie quarterback Jared Goff. But the defense knows how to stop Seattle and turn this into a low-scoring affair. That shouldn’t change with Fisher’s departure as the rest of the staff has remained intact.

Our metrics agree that the Seahawks are the better team, particularly at home with YPP having them as 9.5 point favorites in this game, but that’s still a 6 point differential from the actual spread, more than enough for us to feel comfortable picking the Rams here.

A quick note on this one, this is the Thursday night game so get on it early while you still can.

Numbers, news, and notes

While our three consensus picks were clear choices to make this week and our YPP pick of the week given the recent history of the Rams success vs the Seahawks was also fairly clear cut, we had quite a few other games to choose from. With seven YPP differentials over our preferred 5 point indicator there were three other games we left (out all road underdogs coincidentally); the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cincinnati Bengals.

The two inner-divisional bouts are interesting as the Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers always battle it out and A.J. Green appears to be healthy enough to play in this one. The Jaguars and Houston Texans matchup nicely as well with defensively dominated squads and Houston won the last outing by only three points making it that much more appealing.

The Eagles against the Baltimore Ravens, however, is a bit more worrisome as these two teams are truly trending in opposite directions.

On the injury side, there are several quarterbacks dealing with bumps and bruises like Carr and Rodgers who’s struggles we mentioned above. Of greater note though is a potentially season-ending injury to Ryan Tannehill’s ACL and MCL. Regardless of the severity with varying reports circulating, the Miami Dolphins will be without their starting QB for at least this week and likely much longer. A huge blow to the 11th ranked team per YPP that was seeing a huge uptick in Tannehill’s performance this season.

Matthew Stafford also hurt his hand and will be playing with a glove, an issue that could play out similarly to Carr’s who seemed to be struggling with his deep ball accuracy last Sunday. Andre Luck is also not 100-percent as he’s dealing with some soreness in his right shoulder and elbow. At this time of year playing injured is part of the job with the playoff race amping up. But injury reports and QBs having to lead their teams while hurt is an important factor for bettors to consider.

As we do every week, below you’ll find our metrics with all our suggested spreads for Week 15, enjoy.

Teams	Current Spread	YPP #	Advantage	Home Field	YPP Suggested Spread	YPP Differential	EW Suggested Spread	EW Differential
LAR		-0.5	-2.5			6		0.5
@SEA	-15.5	0.7	3.5	3.5	-9.5		-14.5
MIA	-2.5	0.2	1				-2
@NYJ		-0.3	-1.5	3	-0.5	3		0.5
NE	-3	0.7	3.5
@DEN		0.5	2.5	3.5	-2.5	5.5	-0.5	3.5
GB	-6.5	-0.2	-1				-3
@CHI		0.6	3	3	-7	13.5		3.5
JAX		0	0		Even	6
@HOU	-6	-0.6	-3	3	Even		-6	0
CLE		-0.8	-4			3		1.5
@BUF	-10	0	0	3	-7		-8.5
PHI		-0.6	-3		Even	5.5		0.5
@BAL	-5.5	0	0	3	Even		-5
TEN		0.3	1.5			4
@KC	-5.5	-0.1	-0.5	3.5	-1.5		-5.5	0
DET		-0.3	-1.5					2.5
@NYG	-4.5	0.2	1	3	-5.5	1	-2
IND		-0.5	-2.5
@MIN	-4	-0.1	-0.5	3	-5	1	-6	2
PIT	-3	0.2	1				-1
@CIN		0.1	0.5	3	-2.5	5.5		2
NO		0.5	2.5					1.5
@AZ	-2.5	0.4	2	3	-2.5	0	-4
SF		-0.9	-4.5			2.5
@ATL	-14	0.8	4	3	-11.5		-15	1
OAK	-3	-0.4	-2
@SD		0.2	1	3	-6	9	-1	4
TB		-0.6	-3
@DAL	-7	0.3	1.5	3	-7.5	0.5	-9	2
CAR		-0.3	-1.5
@WSH	-4.5	0.7	3.5	3	-8	3.5	-6	1.5