Four home teams for our NFL Week 13 picks

 

 

For those of you who don’t care how we come to our predictions, you will find the picks at the top of these posts for the rest of the season. The explanations for them are below. Enjoy!

The BSN picks of the week:

Minnesota Vikings +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati +1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Chicago Bears -1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

We’re back at it again in a fairly clear cut week for our picks. Allow me to explain; our EW metric is so similar to the Vegas spreads this week that we truly can’t use a single pick from those suggested spreads, not one. The two highest differentials from our EW spreads are of 3 and 2 points and both are games that YPP is in strong opposition to so we won’t be using anything that EW is offering up.

On a week like this, it’s quite clear how much a metric like our updated EW spreads impact the actual lines as it’s almost exactly on the money with every game.

Our YPP spreads did very well in games above our preferred 5 point differential threshold last week and there are five such games this week. Two of those are the two differentials that EW is in disagreement with, so we’re going with the three remaining picks plus one game that has a 4.5 differential.

Hopefully, that’s not too confusing. Below are the in-depth explanations for our four picks and the usual numerical charts with both our EW and YPP suggested spreads.

Enjoy!

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BSN ATS’ picks of the week

Minnesota Vikings +3.5

This is our one 4.5 point differential meaning it’s right on the cusp of giving us the green light. EW also sees this spread as being on the high side with Minnesota being only -2 underdogs, but that’s not why we’re taking the Vikes.

Dallas is the NFL’s 12th best team per yard per play differential with a positive 0.3 number, while Minnesota is 20th at -0.1. So Dallas doesn’t rank anywhere close to as high when you look at YPP as they do in the standings, but they play the basics well, meaning they stop and run the ball. When you execute the basics you force the other team to match you on that level, if they can do that great if they can’t you have the upper hand. Meaning the key matchup here will be Minnesota’s ability to stop the Cowboys running game. The Vikings are a much better passing defense than they are against the run but they can still stop the ground game. How well they do so will be a key factor.

Minnesota’s defense will have to (again) carry the load, while offensively they’ve struggled significantly as the unit’s been one-dimensional and the weight of the offense is all on Sam Bradford. One factor that could play into the Vikings hands is that the Cowboys defense is much better vs the run than they are the pass as shown on Thanksgiving allowing Kirk Cousins to pass for over 400 yards. At home, Minnesota could draw up the perfect game plan and have the offensive layout necessary to exploit an overachieving Cowboys defense.

Dallas has done nothing but impresses so far this season but they still have lots to prove, first and foremost in their defensive secondary and quarterback. The Vikings have a team set up to exploit both those weaknesses, with our YPP suggested spread having this line set at Minnesota -1 we’re rolling with them.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Falcons have been a YPP favorite and remain at the top of the statistic in the entire league. Coming off an impressive victory over the Arizona Cardinals and playing at home vs a Chiefs team that should be exhausted from a five quarter battle in Denver we’re going back to picking the Dirty Birds.

The Chiefs are a hard team to play against as they’re a complete team with few true weaknesses that can be exploited. They might only be great in a few areas but they’re seemingly above average in just about everything they do so that can make them hard to game plan against. Justin Houston’s return has also made us take notice – after all, if you look like one of the most dominant forces in the NFL you have to. So we don’t take Kansas City lightly here.

But there are two areas in which KC has shown themselves to be not so solid. Their right tackle spot is a position that Vic Beasley can exploit as he’s having a breakout season for Atlanta. More importantly, the Chiefs showed major issues in coverage against Denver last week with Emmanuel Sanders torching them, and all without ever having to throw towards Marcus Peters, their best corner. If Trevor Siemian can do that, what will Matt Ryan do with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu? Those can be two areas that allow Atlanta to play their game and make some explosive plays to get ahead quickly.

Despite a great record and season the Chiefs are only 27th in the NFL per YPP, with this spread having them as 11 point underdogs for a massive 7.5 point differential. The spread is just baiting you to take KC but we say that’s foolish, take Hotlanta.

Cincinnati +1 

If you were to go off of strictly a win-loss record Cincinnati only being a 1 point underdog seems crazy, but you have to take into account how badly the Eagles have fallen since their 3-0 start. EW has always been one of the strongest backers of Philly but even that suggested spread doesn’t favor the Birds as it’s identical to the actual line.

YPP really likes Cincy who would be -1.5 point favorite in a neutral field and is -4.5 in our suggested spread for the metric. That’s a noticeable difference from the actual line.

The Eagles continue to play tough defensively something they showed even in the loss on Monday night to the Green Bay Packers in which they gave up 27 points but primary off of great coverage with the Packers passing game just making superior plays. Without A.J. Green the Bengals will have to find ways to make such plays, but they also have the advantage of being much more multifaceted than the Packers.

But the Eagles issues haven’t been defensively but on offense were without a solid running game and a lack of star receivers, rookie Carson Wentz has been put in a tough spot and is beginning to struggle. Or at least play like a rookie.

Because of this, a veteran Bengals unit that has plenty of talent should be able to keep that trend going and pull off the win. Look per YPP the Bengals are simply the better team and they’re playing at home so it’s an easy call. Based on recent play and Cincy having lost many of their games by the slimmest of margins we’re believers, give us the Red Rifle and his crew.

Chicago Bears -1.5

It’s extremely hard to project the Chicago Bears who’ve been highly ranked per YPP for most of the year. But they’re hard to project because despite being high in offensive YPP they’ve now played with three different quarterbacks and none have played in a manner that could be described as stellar. Yet Chicago remains a top ten NFL team in YPP both on offense and defense even if they’ve been poor in producing points in the red zone or turnovers.

We wouldn’t bet on the Bears unless the circumstances lined up and that’s exactly what’s happening here, with Chicago playing at home against another poor team in the 9ers.

San Francisco took over the bottom standings for YPP a few weeks ago and even after a garbage time comeback attempt last week in Miami we’re still far from convinced.

San Francisco’s stood out in particular for how bad they’ve been on defense. Colin Kaepernick worries us a bit given his unique skill set and that he can sometimes pull a rabbit out of his hat, but were confident with the home field advantage that Chicago will demonstrate their superiority and manage to pull off the close win.

The Bears are a full -10 point favorite per YPP so we’re all-in on them. Bear down Chicago!

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Numbers, news, and notes

Below are our suggested spreads for the week for both EW and YPP. The two other games that YPP liked but EW suggested against where the Jacksonville Jaguars at home against the Denver Broncos and the Los Angles Rams going to the New England Patriots. We tend to agree with EW that it’s imprudent to go with either of those picks.

Again we remind you to take a look at our EW suggested spreads and how eerily close to the Vegas spreads they are.

Teams	Current Spread	YPP #	Advantage	Home Field	YPP Suggested Spread	Difference	EW Sugg Spread	Difference
DAL	-3.5	0.3	1.5				-2
@MIN		-0.1	-0.5	3	-1	4.5		1.5
KC		-0.5	-2.5
@ATL	-3.5	1	5	3.5	-11	7.5	-3.5	0
DET		-0.3	-1.5					1
@NO	-5.5	0.5	2.5	3.5	-7.5	2	-4.5
LAR		-0.4	-2			5.5
@NE	-13.5	0.5	2.5	3.5	-8		-16.5	3
DEN	-5	0.5	2.5				-7	2
@JAX		0.1	0.5	3	-1	6
HOU		-0.5	-2.5			2.5
@GB	-6.5	-0.4	-2	3.5	-4		-6.5	0
PHI	-1	-0.4	-2				-1	0
@CIN		-0.1	-0.5	3	-4.5	5.5
MIA		0.4	2			2
@BAL	-3	0	0	3	-1		-4	1
SF		-1	-5
@CHI	-1.5	0.4	2	3	-10	8.5	-3	1.5
BUF		0.1	0.5			2		1
@OAK	-3	-0.3	-1.5	3	-1		-2
NYG		0.3	1.5			3.5
@PIT	-6	0.1	0.5	3.5	-2.5		-4.5	1.5
WSH		0.6	3
@AZ	-2.5	0.6	3	3	-3	0.5	-3	0.5
TB		-0.6	-3
@SD	-3.5	0.1	0.5	3	-6.5	3	-5	1.5
CAR		-0.1	-0.5
@SEA	-6.5	0.6	3	3.5	-7	0.5	-6.5	0
IND	-1	-0.8	-4		-0.5		-1	0
@NYJ		-0.1	-0.5	3		0.5