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Saturday Fun: Riding that C-USA wave

November 11, 2016

Time for another week of Saturday Fun, meaning that it’s time for our College football picks as we continue to tinker with our conference YPP numbers. After a terrific Week 9 using picks entirely based off of the metric, we jumped all in Week 10. Things didn’t go as planned, going 2-2 in our picks and 2-5 overall as once again the big games let us down.

Another way to break it down is we went 2-1 in games that had unranked teams going against each other while we went 1-4 in games with a ranked team. So in essence Vegas is outsmarting our metrics when it comes to the big teams but we’re finding ways to beat the spread with the mid-majors. Also, it should be said that the numbers didn’t fail us here, the games we picked did, but overall conference YPP was 14-10 on the week – in games with differentials over 7 points – and 9-7 in those games when adjusting for teams strength of schedule.

Conference YPP keeps on picking winners and more importantly being a great tool in sifting through the endless slate of college games to find worthwhile picks. With that we’re offering up six games this week to get back to winning after the 2-5 Week 10 took our record for the year to 33-31-2 on the season (mind you we’ve only started using YPP a few weeks ago.)

Without further ado here are our picks for college football’s Week 11.

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Saturday Fun picks of the week

North Texas +28.5 at Western Kentucky

This Conference USA matchup might be the hardest of all to trust the numbers on because Western Kentucky can straight up fly on offense and puts up lots of points – 42.3 per game to be exact, good for 11th in the nation. So you can see why there’s such a huge spread and the numbers agree, having WKU as 15 point favorites and -20 points when adjusting for strength of schedule. But that’s still an 8.5 point difference from the actual spread.

Look, the 4-and-4 North Texas Mean Green (gotta love that name) aren’t world beaters but they did just lose to Louisiana Tech by “only” 19 points. That same LA Tech squad that beat the Hilltoppers handing them their only conference loss in 2016. WKU has the power to run up the score but we’re betting on this not going past a three-touchdown lead. So far our C-USA picks have done us good, we hope to keep it going.

Charlotte -10.5 vs. Rice

The numbers advise that we pick one more Conference USA game for good measure. What we love about this game is that the numbers don’t like the underdog but rather the 4-and-5 home team to win big in this game. More than 10 points for a 49ers team that only so-so seems like a risk. But Charlotte’s been playing better and is coming off two consecutive wins that should have been four if not for a one-point loss to Florida International.

Rice, on the other hand, is 1-and-8 and has lost by an average of 19.5 points in games played against FBS opponents. More telling they’ve allowed an average of 40 points per game good for 121st in the FBS. YPP has this line set at -20 in Charlotte’s favor when we adjust for strength of schedule and that drops to only 18 without the adjustment.

No matter how you split it the 49ers are significantly better. Expect them to win big.

Illinois +26 at Wisconsin

We’d rather not be picking a ranked team again in the picks of the week but this is how the numbers fall. After the two C-USA matchups, this game made the most sense. The Badgers have gone through a gauntlet of a calendar that’s unlike anything anyone else in the country has faced. They’ve already played against three top 10 teams and LSU to start the year.

Because of this, we’ve been keenly aware that the numbers will undervalue the Badgers some. Wisconsin is, in fact, one of the primary motivators in adding the strength of schedule variable to our numbers. Thanks to that we can see that our suggested spread in this game jumps from 5.5 based purely on conference YPP, too -12 when adjusting for the schedule. But that’s still nowhere close to 26.5 points.

Wisconsin is a great defensive team, but they’ve only played in close games. Their only wins by more than 14 game against Michigan State in a 30-6 beating and vs Akron, 54-10. Which is to say they haven’t blown anyone out since September.

The Illini are a sub-par team but they’re more talented than in years past and probably a bit better than their 3-6 record shows. This won’t be an easy test, but we’re counting on the Badgers keeping this fairly low scoring.

Teams	Conf. YPP spread	Actual spread	Differential
North Texas			14
@Western Kentucky	-14.5	-28.5
Rice
@Charlotte	-18	-10.5	7.5
Illinois			20.5
@Wisconsin	-5.5	-26

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Big Game Hunting

USC +8.5 at Washington

This is a huge game of the Pac-12 and the playoff picture. While at home and being on an absolute roll as of late, the Huskies are only 8.5 point favorites against a three-loss USC team.

That’s because since going with quarterback Sam Darnold as the starter the Trojans have become a really tough team to beat. They’ve currently won five in a row and are looking like a much better team than the one we saw Week 1, getting trounced against Alabama.

The Huskies haven’t had as easy a schedule as most people make them out to be but certainly not the strongest when comparing them to the other elite teams in the top 6-7 of the college football rankings.

Based purely off of conference YPP the Trojans are 7 point underdogs but when you factor in strength of schedule that number is just under 5. No matter how you slice it this surging USC team has the talent and has played well enough lately to pull off the upset, let alone the 8.5 point cover.

Keep a close eye on two of the best wide receiver and cornerback matchups we’ll see all year in this one, particularly when Adoree Jackson (USC) will be tasked with covering blazer John Ross. This game should also come down to two young quarterbacks, we like our chances with SC here.

LSU -7 at Arkansas

Arkansas keeps being the rare underdog team that the numbers don’t like and this has happened for two weeks in a row. The Hogs proved us wrong for taking Florida last week but this LSU team is slightly different.

Primarily, the Tigers inspire more confidence than the Gators because they have a bit more offensive mojo, at least since the coaching change. They also have Leonard Fournette who we expect to feast on the Arkansas defense.

The bigger worry here is that the Tigers don’t score lots of points so winning by more than a touchdown won’t be easy. Unless, Fournette runs wild and the Tigers defense imposes themselves, similar to how they walloped Ole Miss. That’s what we’re banking on here as LSU is still fighting for its respect and trying to finish the season on a high.

Give us the Tigers in this battle of bottom top 25 teams.

Mississippi State +29.5 at Alabama

What are we doing going back to the well with Alabama you may ask? Well, this Mississippi State team might be different. The Bulldogs were called to upset Texas A&M by YPP last week but I didn’t believe, missing out on a great upset win.

The Bulldogs started off slow but they’re currently rolling. That’s in large part due to the play of quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, the next in a long line of quarterbacks developed by coach Dan Mullen. Look, the Bulldogs aren’t going to upset the Tide, especially not at home. But again we like them to cover. 29.5 points is a lot, and just too high for a Mississippi State team that has nothing to lose and is playing explosive offense right now.

Also as disciplined as they are, Alabama has just finished up the tough stretch of their schedule. Their only remaining big test will be the Iron Bowl against a surging Auburn squad; it would be natural to overlook the Bulldogs a bit. Give us Mullen’s boys to put a scare in Nick Saban’s team.