Now that the regular season is ramping up the staff at BSN Nuggets will be putting out a weekly roundtable to collect the thoughts of all of the contributors on different storylines that have presented themselves throughout the week. Look for them to drop every Thursday or Friday going forward.
An Nguyen (@The_NGUYENNER), Joel Rush (@Denbutsu), Dan Fatigato (DNF_on_NBA), and myself (@BSN_McBride) came together to hopefully shed some light on some of the bigger questions surrounding the Nuggets.
*Note: This was finished prior to the loss to the Golden State Warriors*
Gary Harris’s return is as welcomed a sight as any. What does he bring to the Nuggets team on and off the court that is so valuable?
An: On the court, Harris provides the team with a boost on both ends of the floor with his stellar defense and great knack for moving without the ball. He hasn’t quite found his shot since coming back from injury, but it’s just a matter of time for someone with his form and work ethic. Off the court, he provides Mudiay comfort in knowing that he has the backcourt partner he played all of last year with. Harris spent his first year in Brian Shaw’s doghouse, so both of them essentially got their feet wet together.
Dan: He gives them an above league-average wing on both ends of the court. That is huge for any team, but the Nuggets particularly need that stability with a young, turnover-prone point guard and rookies on the bench. You saw Harris pounce on the trap-and-steal that should’ve won Denver the game Tuesday night in Memphis. He puts pressure on primary ballhandlers, disrupting the flow of the other team’s offense. Denver just doesn’t have anyone else at the 2 that does that consistently.
Joel: The biggest beneficiary to Harris’ return may be Mudiay. While we can’t know for sure whether Mudiay’s epic first quarter eruption in Boston was at all sparked by Harris’ return to the starting lineup, what is certainly true is that in 2015-16, the most effective 2-man lineup featuring Mudiay and another guard included Harris (per NBA.com/stats). With Denver’s third highest effective field goal percentage last season (.538), Gary brings floor spacing to the starting five which is crucially helpful to Mudiay’s game, and it just appears Emmanuel has a comfort level alongside Harris that facilitates a more composed and poised mode of play.
TJ: The biggest help he will provide is obviously his bulldog defensive mentality. Instead of sticking with the easy answer, I am going to go with how much his presence will help calm and improve Mudiay’s game. No longer is Mudiay taking the bulk of the defensive responsibility when checking the opponent’s best guard. That task now falls to Harris. Also, it is Harris’s off-ball cuts and three-point shooting that benefits the overall floor spacing for the Nuggets offense. Just the presence of having Harris back is one of the more understated additions to the Nuggets as a whole. Mudiay said it best:
Mudiay on Gary Harris: “Ya'll dont understand. That man there makes my life so much easier."
— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) November 7, 2016
Wilson Chandler has come out of the gate looking like a legitimate 6th man of the year candidate. What about his game has led to his reemergence and the Nuggets big lift from his return?
An: He’s healthy, has been working hard during rehab and just has an all-around scoring game. People underestimated Wilson’s drive to improve as he continued to put in countless hours at the gym, staying strong as he persevered through two disheartening season-ending injuries. Enjoying a career season, Chandler now gets to finally feast on the fruits of his labor.
Dan: He looks healthy again. That’s the main thing with Chandler. He’s always been an above-average shooter and solid, switchy defensive player. He hasn’t lost much versatility despite all the injuries, so Malone can play him in a variety of ways. When Malone finally abandons the Twin Tower lineup, I think Chandler’s influence only grows. Just stay healthy, please!
Joel: In speculating about what has led to Chandler’s resurgence, the obvious assumption would be that he has genuinely returned to full health and conditioning for the first time in a long time, perhaps in years. Chandler has burst onto the scene this season playing at or near his all-time best, with his points and rebounds per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage, and win shares per 48 minutes second only in his career to 2012-13. He is probably Denver’s best two-way player at present, and his versatility makes him a reliable fit for Malone to use in a variety of lineups.
TJ: The easy answer is that he finally looks healthy but what really has contributed to his production is that his skill-set is exactly what the Nuggets have been lacking. Chandler can guard positions 1-4 and scores in every zone of the court. Being able to showcase his skill-set in a way that directly boosts the Nuggets as a whole has allowed Chandler to play his game and flourish with the current roster. He is there MVP thus far throughout the season and is arguably their best two-way player.
Nikola Jokic has struggled throughout the early going of the season. What can coach Malone or Jokic do to alleviate his struggles?
An: As everyone points to Jokic playing the 4 as the reason for his struggles, I can’t help but notice that he’s struggled even in lineups where he’s the sole seven-footer on the court. Malone needs to do a better job of getting Jokic involved in the offense, as he rarely has the opportunity to make a real impact on the game due to his unselfish nature. Jokic has the ability to make plays with his uncanny court vision as well as finish possessions with his tricky moves and soft touch.
Dan: It’s early but I’m panicking a little. Jokic, to me, is the best all-around player on the team and he’s absolutely playing out of position this season. It’s stymied his development and made a naturally instinctive and fluid player overthink on the court. He’s gotten his shot going a few times, like late Tuesday night against the Grizz. But too often he’s just kind of floating around the top of the key and trying not to jam the lane when he plays with Nurkic. We need more of the facilitating, picking-and-popping craftiness that we came to love last season. One last thing: he can’t guard most fours. It’s painfully obvious. The man is a prototypical modern-day center.
Joel: I hope Malone isn’t creating a negative feedback loop that inhibits Jokic’s development by first forcing him into the Jurkic lineup out of position and against his strengths, then limiting his minutes for being “ineffective” when the deck was stacked against him. Whether Nurkic starts and Jokic comes off the bench or vice-versa (I would prefer Jokic start, but Nurkic has played great), both Jokic and Mudiay – and Denver’s team defense – should benefit by mostly separating the Balkans into different lineups. As the sole center, Jokic can make the most of his offensive skill set, especially with plays run through him at the elbow.
TJ: Jokic’s season, so far, reminds me of his Olympic run with the Serbian National team. Weather he was sharing the court with Serbian big man Miroslav Raduljica or acting as the primary big man on the roster it seems that he never got into an offensive rhythm and struggled. Fast forward to the beginning of the Nuggets preseason, while starting next to Nurkic, and the storyline remains eerily similar. His confidence seems shaken and it has led to a drop in production. The injuries to Barton and Harris has hurt his ability to hit off-ball cutters from the high post and being delegated to the perimeter as a power forward has left him out of place and seemingly overwhelmed defensively. Malone needs to simplify the offense and begin making it a point to get Jokic involved from the start to begin rebuilding the confidence he built up throughout his rookie season.
Now seven games through the 2016/17 Denver Nuggets season what issue is the most troubling for the Nuggets thus far?
An: It has to be turnovers and lack of a go-to scorer. The Nuggets are one of the youngest teams in the NBA and have certainly looked the part as they’ve choked fourth quarter lead after fourth quarter lead. They have only themselves to blame as they average a league-worst 18.3 turnovers per game. To add on to that, the Nuggets offense typically stalls when the going gets rough as the Nuggets also own the league-worst field goal percentage in the fourth quarter, shooting an absolutely putrid 33.6 percent.
The silver lining here is that the Nuggets have still been in a position to win each and every game (excluding the massacre in Detroit) despite these horrid fourth quarter performances. This gives hope that the Nuggets may actually start racking in wins once the growing pains are sorted out.
Dan: I know Joel is going to talk about the turnovers, so I’ll mention two other problems. Namely, health and shooting. Sound familiar? No one’s been lost to a prolonged injury, which is a notable change from this time last season. But the Harris injury before the start of the season really threw things off during a tough first five games. Now Will Barton is banged up, as well as Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler. Depth turns to scarcity in the blink of an eye, and this trend needs to reverse before it gets out of hand again. Three-point shooting has been better this year (12th), but the Nuggets are 25th in overall field goal percentage. That’s not going to cut it in the long run
Joel: It’s hard to identify just one troubling issue for the Nuggets – pull on one thread, several more unravel – but one especially problematic area is turnovers both ways. The Nuggets not only have the worst turnover ratio in the league (17.3), they are fourth worst in opponent turnover ratio (12.6), resulting in the second worst own-opponent turnover ratio differential, and the third worst differential in points off of turnovers (-5.3), per NBA.com/stats. The fact that three of Denver’s four losses have been by less than that 5.3 points is a grim reminder of the urgency of taking better care of the ball.
TJ: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. The Nuggets lead the league in turnovers while having lost three games by a total of six points. If they had held onto two more possessions in each game they could easily be 6-1 at this juncture. To win in the regular season, and the playoffs, taking care of the ball should be priority number one and if they do not get the issues with turnovers to calm down they will not be making the playoffs this season.
