BSN Nuggets roundtable: three games into the 2016/17 season

 

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Now that the regular season is ramping up the staff at BSN Nuggets will be putting out a weekly roundtable to collect the thoughts of all of the contributors on different storylines that have presented themselves throughout the week. Look for them to drop every Thursday or Friday going forward.

An Nguyen (@The_NGUYENNER), Joel Rush (@Denbutsu), Dan Fatigato (DNF_on_NBA), and myself (@BSN_McBride) came together to hopefully shed some light on some of the bigger questions surrounding the Nuggets.

With Will Barton now out with a sprained ankle who does that mean for the Nuggets going forward and who steps into his place?

An: Fortunately for the Nuggets, Gary Harris has been looking healthier lately. He should fill in perfectly and will provide a much-needed boost to a Nuggets team that has been absolutely brutalized the last two games by opposing starting backcourts, giving up an average of 61 points per game. Until Harris is completely healthy, look for Jamal Murray to get some burn and hopefully light the league up. It’d be great to see him force his way onto the court a la Faried and Jokic.

Dan: Remember when we were puzzling over how the rooks would ever crack the rotation of this super deep team? Well, that lasted less than three games. Groin injuries tend to linger, so we may not be seeing a fully healthy Gary Harris for some time, and a tough road trip looms. The Nuggets need Jamal Murray to step up as both a scorer and passable wing defender fast. Luckily the next three opponents – Detroit, Boston, Memphis – don’t have dynamic offensive backcourts. But the Warriors come to town Nov. 10. That game could be uglier than first imagined if Harris can’t go.

Joel: Through three games, Barton has Denver’s second highest offensive rating (103.6), their second-highest eFG% (.563), and per game is first on the team in fast break points (5.0) and points in the paint (7.3), per NBA.com/stats. In short, the Nuggets are losing a ton of their offensive production and efficiency in Barton, and it will take a team effort to make up for it. This must start with Emmanuel Mudiay, whose shooting woes continue, but Denver also needs Jameer Nelson to continue his surprisingly good performance, and Jamal Murray will have to step up into a larger role.

T.J.: Well it seems that the Nuggets darling of the 2016 NBA draft will now get all the playing time he wants. With both Barton and Gary Harris out it will be Jamal Murray who will now get close to 30 minutes per night and being that the Nuggets now lack there best pick and roll player in Barton and the spacing that both Barton and Harris provide those responsibilities will now fall to Murray. He has the skill-set to pull it off but being a rookie who has yet to make his first professional bucket there is still a way to go.

The Nuggets have blown two leads late in the 4th quarter. What do you attribute this to and what can be done to fix it?

An: I attribute it to being a young team, mistakes will be abundant and the only thing we can hope for is that Head Coach Michael Malone is using these as learning opportunities as opposed to just letting the losses go to waste. Another factor is the Nuggets do not have a true “go-to scorer” and will need to both outplay and outwork other teams for more quality shots.

The quick fix is Malone and the coaching staff need get more creative on offense, something that has been a bit of a struggle since highly-touted Assistant Coach Chris Fleming left for the Brooklyn Nets. The fix for the foreseeable future is Jamal Murray developing into a bona fide star, as he has one of the highest scoring potentials on the team and has a natural knack for getting buckets.

Dan: It always comes back to a lack of a star offensive player. The Nuggets have plenty of good scorers, but late in games, someone needs to take over, preferably a primary ballhandler. When’s the last time you saw the ball in Emmanuel Mudiay’s or Danilo Gallinari’s hands late in a game and felt supremely confident they were going to score? Murray could be that guy eventually but he’s clearly not there yet. Malone is also having some issues figuring out the center rotation and whether he wants to stick to small-ball in crunch time. Let’s caveat all this by remembering it’s only been two games. It’s not exactly a trend – yet.

Joel: Michael Malone is in a tough spot, doling out a precious few minutes to too many players who probably merit them. To his credit, he did move away from the gamble which paid off against the Pelicans but arguably caused the loss to Portland – closing out the game with Faried at center while Nurkic and Jokic sat on the bench – by playing Nurkic for nearly the entire fourth quarter in Toronto. Even though that game slipped away as well, it was an adjustment in the right direction, and going forward, Malone should commit to keeping a legitimate center in to close out games.

T.J.: Inexperience. The Denver Nuggets foundation of Nurkic, Jokic, Mudiay, Harris, and Murray are all under the age of 22 so there will an immense amount of growing pains, biggest of such is learning to close out games. Not only is this team largely not able to drink legally in the states but they have yet to play with everyone healthy. To compound the issue further the glut of players in the front court have led to inconsistent rotations from Malone and not having players in rhythm to close out the game is just another obstacle to overcome. To

To compound the issue further the glut of players in the front court have led to inconsistent rotations from Malone and not having players in rhythm to close out the game is just another obstacle to overcome. To me, this screams of early season basketball tom-foolery. If the trend continues then MAYBE it is the time to hit the panic button and begin analyzing what is not working with this roster as currently constructed. For now, they may just need reps together to begin building that on-court chemistry.

There has been a lot of talk about Michael Malone’s front court rotation. What do you think of it and what would you change, if anything?

An: It’s definitely a complicated situation that will only get more convoluted when Darrell Arthur gets healthy, but the biggest problem so far has been the synergy between Nurkic and Jokic. It’s not that they’re performing poorly as players, but rather the fact that they don’t seem to compliment each other. They’re both merely existing rather than co-existing. Jokic can play further out on the perimeter, but his low post scoring is one of his most valuable traits, not to mention his underrated rim protection.

Take Nurkic away from the paint, and you’re completely taking him out of his element. Faried is playing extremely well coming off the bench, but Malone has to remember that Kenneth’s not a starter for a reason. Definitely, a difficult problem to solve, but I have full confidence in Malone and the coaching staff to figure it out. The only thing I would change is having more faith in the Balkan Big Men during crunch time.

Dan: I’m a fan of both Nurkic and Jokic, individually. Together, they still need to mesh. But it’s early and both have had some amazing performances, notably Jokic’s 23 and 17 against Portland and Nurkic’s big night in Toronto. I need a little more time to evaluate before really advocating for change, but I will say Malone should shift his approach based on matchups. Some nights Jokic is more set up for success than Nurkic, and vice versa. As long as Faried is on the team, he should be playing with the second unit. His energy off the bench and athleticism against other team’s second units makes up for his shooting/defensive deficiencies.

Joel: I am increasingly convinced that the predominance of the “Balkan Buddy Boys” lineup is doing a disservice to both Mudiay and Jokic, and should no longer be the starting five template. Per NBA.com/stats, of the Nuggets’ eight 5-man lineups with five or more minutes, three have positive net ratings, and none of those include both Jokic and Nurkic. Mudiay needs more spacing than the two-center lineup provides, and Jokic seems handcuffed offensively alongside Nurkic. Malone should try starting Chandler at the four to help Mudiay, and run more offense through Jokic at the elbow when he comes off the bench.

T.J.: I am starting to place myself firmly in the camp that believes the Balkan Buddy Ball will not work for long stretches. If Malone elects to not start the two centers together then the rotation begins to take shape in a much cleaner fashion. Evenly splitting the 48 minutes allowed between the two centers so each plays 24 minutes a game at their natural position is how I would do it.

Then, for 6-10 minutes a night, the twin-tower lineup can still play together depending on the matchup. Cleaning up the rotation at center will allow or the power forward minutes to begin working themselves out while allowing the glut of big men to all get the minutes they need. If the Nuggets continue to struggle with space in the paint and on the defensive side of the ball I would not be surprised to see Malone scrap the “Jurkic” lineup completely.

Emmanuel Mudiay has struggled to start the season in the same way he did his rookie year with turnovers and trouble with his jump shot. What has contributed to his issues and what can Malone or Mudiay do to remedy the problems?

An: Mudiay is taking way too many tough shots as he still has the tendency to barrel his way into the lane, only to find it stuffed due to the lack of respect for his jump shot. Opponents are daring Mudiay to drive into the paint where they can easily force him into a contested layup, which he converts at a less than desirable rate of 36.5 percent, or an easy turnover from a forced pass.

Malone needs to do a better job of getting Mudiay the ball while he’s going downhill, allowing him to use his elite strength to make finishing at the rim easier. I don’t want to tell Mudiay to be less aggressive, but he definitely needs to pick his battles more wisely. Fans must keep in mind how young and inexperienced Mudiay is as there will continue to be growing pains until the game slows down for him.

Dan: I’m not hitting the panic button, but I’m a little nervous about Mudiay. He’s extremely young, which gives you hope. But the fact that he’s struggling with the same issues as last Oct/Nov is alarming. When your point guard shoots 33 percent from the field, there’s a domino effect on the rest of the team. No one has any reason to respect his shot, so his defender clogs the lane to muck up the rest of the action on the floor.

Opposing defenders don’t have to worry about him on the pick-and-roll since he’s rarely making them pay by finishing at the rim. So they don’t have to switch as urgently and can shade onto the roll man, killing that action. For Mudiay it may be as simple as his shot. I’m reminded of Elfrid Payton in Orlando. And then I panic just a tad more.

Joel: If I had the secret to unlocking the mysteries to Mudiay’s success, I would be asking the Nuggets for a paycheck instead of blogging about them from behind my laptop. But as I mentioned above, one thing he should clearly benefit from is the better spacing that lineups with only one center will provide. And taking a cue from the history, counterintuitive as it may be, of what worked in the past – playing DJ Augustin alongside him as the primary ball-handler – more combinations with Mudiay and Nelson or Mudiay and Murray merit experimentation.

T.J.: Having two big men on the floor has done nothing but stagnate Mudiay. While Mudiay has done himself no favors by turning the ball over constantly and struggling to score anywhere outside the paint if the Nuggets want to maximize his effectiveness they need to stop playing the two centers together with him. Playing Mudiay with three shooters and a center and letting him play in the high pick and roll is the easy answer but for Mudiay to truly start shaking up the NBA he needs to find a way to start hitting jump shots.

Teams going under screens in the pick and roll is absolutely suffocating the paint, where Mudiay is supposed to feast on opponents. People forget that last season was his first time playing any kind of competitive basketball, outside of 12 games in China, since he played in high school. There is a long road ahead of Mudiay in terms of development. Patience will be everything.