If Nuggets want to build with Emmanuel Mudiay, they must continue to play to his strengths

 

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The sky is not falling when it comes to Nuggets second-year point guard Emmanuel Mudiay.

No, he didn’t have an efficient or impressive rookie year, and his second season has started off like his first, with low shooting percentages and high turnover numbers. Albeit with a small sample size, his statistics look a whole lot like two other high-usage guards in Mudiay’s draft class who are generally held in a higher regard than Mudiay throughout Basketball Intelligentsia.

Yet, the slander has already hit hard three games into Mudiay’s sophomore season and part of it is his own doing.

Mudiay’s on court product which hasn’t been the most aesthetically pleasing, and isn’t at the level many expected it to be after an encouraging post All-Star break run last year and seemingly productive summer.

His shot, at times, looks to have regressed back to what it was at the beginning of his rookie year, while occasionally it appears more streamlined and compact. His handle is still a work in progress, and Mudiay is still working to make more responsible decisions with the ball in his hands.

But some of Mudiay’s struggles have been out of his control.

The Nuggets are running a new offense this year, one that emphasizes and looks to get the ball as much as possible to one of their bigs; Jusuf Nurkic or Nikola Jokic. While there’s still ample spacing and the two bigs have shown they can play together offensively, things obviously look different to Mudiay, which is understandable.

Mudiay went on record earlier this year and said that playing with this group is an adjustment and it will take some time for everyone to mesh.

“We know each other pretty well, but the groups that are in right now, we haven’t played together a lot, so I think that’s what the different adjustment is. Nurk wasn’t healthy at the beginning of last season, Gallo at the end the year wasn’t healthy over the last 2.5 months. With them two being back in there we never had a lineup like that [last season] so I think me, Gary, and Nikola we’re trying to get used to that.”

“I’ll figure it out I’m pretty sure, but that goes with more reps playing together. It takes a little bit of the driving lanes kind of away here and there, but I’m sure we’ll figure it out.”

As the Nuggets look to zig through the rest of the league by playing through their bigs, they have to remember to keep playing to Mudiay’s strengths and not forget about the 20-year-old point guard they invested a top-10 pick in just 1.5 years ago.

Pick-and-roll ability

Coming into the draft, Mudiay was billed as a “pick-and-roll” point guard and someone that would excel in those situations. His height, at 6-foot-5, vision in the halfcourt and ability to get to the rim, all set the table for a rookie who was going to be excellent navigating through the lane, finding shooters, and taking advantage of slower bigs on switches.

With how bad Mudiay’s percentages were last year, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what he excelled at during his rookie season, but his play in the pick-and-roll was one thing he did do well.

0.64 points per possession as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls was the worst efficiency out of players with more than 300 possessions, but it put him in D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, and Dennis Schroder territory last year. In all, 43 percent of his offensive possessions came by the way of pick-and-rolls, all of this according to NBA.com/stats and Synergy.

The Nuggets are running a different offense than they did during Mudiay’s rookie season. The trio of Mudiay, Jokic and Nurkic has already seen the floor together for 44 minutes, much more than they did last year and the way the Nuggets have been playing has shifted the focus off of Mudiay and towards the two bigs.

He’s been getting more open looks like this from three with two bigs on the floor, obviously not one of his strengths.

Mudiay’s pick-and-roll frequency is down from 43 to 37.3 percent this year, but with the pace Denver’s been playing at he has still found himself in familiar pick-and-roll sets as often on a per game basis as he did last season.

Yet, the look and feel of the Nuggets offense is obviously different. The focus has been to get the ball to Nurkic and then Jokic, the former of which is has been among the most efficient big men on post-ups so far this season. That change has led to an uncertain Mudiay, someone who as of yet hasn’t been able to get as comfortable as he was during his rocky rookie year and show signs of progress in year two.

For this to be a productive year for Mudiay, the Nuggets have to enable him to be great, which means not abandoning the amount of pick-and-rolls they run for him and actually run more for him than they did last year. When they’ve put him in situations to succeed, Mudiay has shown the potential to be a lethal pick-and-roll point guard.

Why many believe Mudiay can be so potent in the pick-and-roll is that at 6-foot-5, he can see over his defender, assess the floor, then use his 210-pound frame to navigate the interior and keep the defense on his back.

Through three games Mudiay is already shooting eight points better in the pick-and-roll than he was last season, up from 36.5 to 44.4 percent per Synergy.

If he can’t get all the way to the rim, this pull-up from about ten feet is a good shot going forward for the second-year player if he can stay as straight up and down and compact as he did here:

Mudiay hasn’t been overly efficient in the pick-and-roll this year, or last year, and although he’s raised his points per possession and shooting percentage at the rim through four games this season, he still has a ways to go. Yet, he’s shown signs of progression.

The two bigs are tantalizing and trendy, but Denver has to stay pick-and-roll heavy for Mudiay’s sake. It’s going to help Mudiay, Jokic and Nurkic in the long run.

Pushing the ball in transition

While his ability to navigate the pick-and-roll with a combination of hesitation moves and use of his unique frame will likely be Mudiay’s calling card throughout his career, his potential as a transition player has already shown itself this year as well.

At 6-foot-5, Mudiay, like he does in the pick-and-roll, can always see over his man and assess the entire floor when he gets the outlet. Mudiay isn’t the quickest athlete, but he’s incredibly strong for a 20-year-old.

Mudiay has already been more efficient at 0.92 points per possession in transition than he was last year (0.82) and that likely comes from the experience he gained his rookie season finishing over, through and around NBA-level athletes.

He still has a long ways to go when finishing in transition or at the rim in the restricted area, but Mudiay has looked more in control when finishing at the rim this year than last and his left hand looks stronger as well.

Like he does in the pick-and-roll, Mudiay also changes pace effectively in transition.

When he can’t get to the rim, Mudiay likes to pull-up from that 10-12 foot sweet spot, or at least what he wants to be his sweet spot going forward.

Overall, the results haven’t been pretty. Mudiay is just 2-10 from mid-range this year, per NBA.com and shot just 30.8 percent from that distance last season. But again, there’s been so much change to Denver’s personnel, the lineups they’re using and the style they’re playing is so much different than last year. There’s time to adjust and I think Mudiay will.

This is a shot I think can be a weapon for Mudiay.

The Nuggets stormed out of the gate’s this year playing at the league’s sixth-fastest pace through three games, which bodes well for Mudiay. He’ll also likely take on a larger role in the offense in the interim with Gary Harris still not back from a partially torn groin he suffered in Denver’s first preseason game and Will Barton out with a sprained left ankle.

Mudiay was thrust into the starting lineup as a rookie and went on to start 66 of the 68 games he appeared in. This year, expect ups and downs like we saw his rookie year, but also, improvement.

The Nuggets still believe in Mudiay despite a shaky start to his second season and he should continue to improve, but only if Denver emphasizes a heavy amount of pick-and-roll actions and continues to make it a point of emphasis to get out and push the ball with Mudiay in transition.

Denver can do that while still developing Nurkic and Jokic, but it’s a balance that will take discipline and commitment from coach Michael Malone as he navigates his second season at the Nuggets’ helm.