Saturday Fun: Applying conference YPP and picking underdogs

 

While having our fun on Saturdays, I’ve been in the lab taking some of the metrics that we’ve applied to the NFL and adjusting them to College Football.  Because of this, we now have a full YPP score that is updated for every one of the 128 teams in the FBS, while also having adjusted home field values and strength of schedule skewing some of the numerical divergences that you’ll find in collegiate stats with such large differences in the 128 teams.

Everything is still very much in its infancy and which variation of these metrics is the best continues to be a work in progress. But for now, what we do feel comfortable saying is that in Week 8, when applying the yard per play metric of just the conference games (this is done to even out the competition level) the 10 games we tried out went 9-1.

Sadly in our picks last week and particularly the “big game hunting” picks I didn’t follow the numbers as it was the first week trying it out. At the end of the day, we went 3-2 in our picks of the week but fell short in the big games going 1-2 for a 4-and-4 week. That takes us to 25-23-2 on the year.

The YPP vs Conference Opponents spreads from last week that went 9-1

Teams	Advantage	YPP spread	Actual spread	Differential
Michigan State	1		-3
@Maryland	7.5	-6.5		9.5
Texas A&M	6			8.5
@Alabama	16.5	-10.5	-19
Arkansas	-14
@Auburn	1.5	-15.5	-10	5.5
Ohio State	10	-6	-19.5
@Penn State	4			13.5
Oklahoma	9	-4	-14
@Texas Tech	5			10
Mississippi	6.5
@LSU	14.5	-8	-6.5	1.5
Colorado	6.5	-8.5		10.5
@Stanford	-2		-2
TCU	5
@WVU	16.5	-11.5	-6	5.5

 

Please remember that just because we’re showing these stats doesn’t mean they’re reliable or that we feel comfortable at all with them. But in the spirit of Saturday Fun, we’re going to reference and use the numbers for nine picks this week. Strap on your seat belts.

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Saturday Fun picks of the week

Fresno State +13 vs. Air Force

All the picks of the week are picks that every variation of the metrics I’m working with is in agreement on, starting with Fresno State. This is why statistics can be great because on face value you’d think nothing of this game. Fresno is 1-7 obviously not impressive, while Air Force beat Navy earlier in the season, a ranked team that has since beaten Houston.

So 13 points almost seem conservative, but that’s what the line makers want you to think. Look deeper and you’ll find that Air Force is 1-4 in Mountain West play, with that win coming back in late September. The Falcons have now lost their last three to Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii, not exactly the class of the conference.

On the flip side, the Bulldogs worst loss at home this season was a 14 point ‘L’ to San Diego State, arguably the most talented team in the Mountain West. Fresno State is actually 3-and-5 agianst the spread (ATS) as opposed to Air Force’s 2-and-5 mark. 13 points seem like too much here.

Michigan State +24.5 vs. Michigan

This is a really tough one to take, as the Spartans have lost their last five and look progressively more unimpressive week-by-week. Their worst loss of the season was a 24 point embarrassment to Wisconsin at home, to start the five-game negative streak.

So 24.5 points is an interesting number, Michigan obviously wants revenge over the heartbreaking miraculous loss last season, and they have the talent to bury you. However, even in a down year, this is still a Mark Dantonio team a man who lives and has made a career out of proving everyone wrong when being a big underdog.

The hope here is that Michigan State finds a way to slow down the Wolverines offense. Because Michigan’s defense is unreal, something that YPP agree’s with as they’re allowing an insane 2.8 YPP on average defensively. That’s a ridiculous number. Even with that, conference YPP only has them as 14 point favorites. We’ll see how everything plays out. We’re trusting the numbers here and counting on the home field to get Michigan State to play this close.

Wyoming +13.5 vs. Boise State

This isn’t the Wyoming team we’ve been used to seeing the last several years, this group can play. They’re 5-and-2 on the year (their same record ATS) and are playing at home.

While Boise State remains undefeated and ranked 13th nationally they are 2-4-1 ATS on the season, far from an impressive number. That also shows they’re not covering these big spreads they get every week as favorites.

The Broncos have won their last two by a combined 6 points barely squeaking by. Wyoming can put up a fight and that home field advantage matters, we believe in the Pokes.

Oregon State +13 vs. Washington State

Interesting how these are all home dogs here, but the differentials were noteworthy and again all metrics were in agreement here.

Washington State has been on a nice roll as of late after losing their first two. The Cougars are now undefeated in conference play and could be a true dark horse team in the Pac 12 north this season.

But the Beavers are playing hard and have been a much tougher team after losing badly to Colorado to begin conference play. Despite their 2-and-5 record, they’re 4-2-1 ATS (WSU is 5-2) and played Utah tough a couple weeks ago.

With Oregon State being at home we like them to cover the spread here.

The YPP conference spreads for our picks of the week

Teams	Conf YPP spread	Actual spread	Differential
Air Force	-0.5	-13
@Fresno State			12.5
Michigan	-13.5	-24.5
@Michigan State			11
Boise State	-1.5	-13.5
@Wyoming			12
Washington State	-2	-13
@Oregon State			11

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Big Game Hunting

West Virginia -3.5 at Oklahoma State

West Virginia is on a roll and has played very well in conference play. This isn’t some fluke, look at what this defense did against Texas Tech and then go see what Tech’s offense did in a record-breaking performance last week vs Oklahoma.

The Mountaineers are simply rolling and though this is an important ‘prove it’ type game for them away in Stillwater, Oklahoma, I believe they’re up to the task.

The Cowboys are explosive with a fantastic QB and WR combination. But they’re fairly one dimensional. West Virginia can both keep the pace offensively and slow down OSU on defense with their 15th ranked scoring ‘D’ in the nation (allowing 17.8 points per game).

Utah +12.5 vs. Washington

This game is right on the razor’s edge with our numbers which fascinates me. Our suggested spread is just under or just over the actual number depending on the variation we use. The thing the numbers can’t take into account is the Joe Williams factor, the Utes “unretired” running back who’s come back to rush for 411 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games back.

The Utes are Washington’s biggest remaining test on the schedule, especially since the game is being played in Salt Lake City, typically a very hostile environment. Meaning that though this Huskies team is extremely talented and they’ve been rolling on all cylinders they are young with some relative inexperience. This will be a much bigger test than playing Stanford and Oregon on down years.

This is a show-me game for Washington, I bet they don’t win so easily.

Nebraska +8.5 at Wisconsin

Ok, there’s genuine disagreements with the metrics depending on how you modify things for this Big Ten matchup. Particularly because the strength of schedule for these teams really makes a difference even in conference play. Wisconsin has the toughest schedule in the country so far and has played really well against LSU, Ohio State, and Michigan.

While Nebraska is ranked in the top 10 and undefeated but has yet to face anyone noteworthy. Let’s put it this way, the Huskers toughest opponents so far in 2016 is Indiana ranked 40th in the country per YPP differential (Nebraska is only 37th).

That’s why the spread is so high in this one, on top of it being at Camp Randall a nightmarish place to play. All the numbers agree that Wisconsin wins, but considering their a defense first and grind it out on offense type of team, I don’t see the Huskers letting this be more than a touchdown game.

Mississippi +4.5 vs. Auburn

This is an interesting line here. Mississippi got whooped by LSU last week – a game the numbers predicted and I stupidly went against. While the Tigers are coming off a commanding victory over Arkansas, another game the numbers liked.

So this switch is frankly surprising. Auburn is extremely hot right now, they’re 3-1 against conference opponents while Ole Miss is 3-and-4 on the year and 1-4 in the SEC.

So the fact that the numbers like Mississippi here is noteworthy considering we’re only using YPP from conference games. The margins aren’t the greatest but Auburn on the road still has to prove they can keep this up, though their defense certainly seems for real.

Ole Miss isn’t going 1-and-5 in conference play they’re just too talented, give us the Rebels.

Clemson -4.5 at Florida State

At face value taking Clemson here is hard, considering they haven’t looked all that great this season. A close win over Auburn is now looking much better but they also almost lost to Troy and couldn’t get out of their own way vs NC State. The Tigers have been disappointing despite an undefeated record and being ranked 3rd in the country, as testified by their 4-and-3 record ATS.

If we’re talking disappointments Florida State is even higher on that list as they’re 3-and-4 ATS while also essentially already being out of ACC contention.

The Notes have won some close games and also lost a close one to UNC. Given how these two teams have played all season you’d expect this to be a nail biter. However, Clemson’s closest win this year was Week 1 against Auburn in which they won by 6. They always manage to get at least a touchdown to separate, I expect the same in Tallahassee.