Saturday Fun: Winning increases the fun

 

When we started off this column the whole point was to give some picks, talk about the big games, maybe mess around with some stats. The point was never to concentrate on just winners and make our record the best as possible. Which is why a 6-4-1 Week 7 taking us at 21-19-2 on the year is pretty surprising.

Our record last week could have been even better if not for going 0-2 on the over/under Big 12 picks – in which it seems we’ve seen enough of an adjustment to stay away from here on. But it was fun while it lasted, and we’d gone 3-and-1 on those picks prior to Week 7.

Week 8 promises to be another great Saturday of action for those of us who love watching college football. Here’re the games we like.

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Saturday Fun picks of the week

Wisconsin -4 at Iowa

There should be no more doubt regarding the Badgers, who took an extremely talented Ohio State team to the brink in overtime. So, why only 4 points on the road against Iowa? While the Hawkeyes have a good 5-2 record and 3-1 in the Big Ten, they’re far from the team they were in 2015. Iowa’s lost to FCS powerhouse North Dakota State and a Northwestern team that’s only 3-3, on top of barely surviving Rutgers, Minnesota and allowing 35 points from Purdue’s offense.

That’s a whole lot of unimpressive performances. As the nitty gritty part of conference play gets into full we expect Iowa to get exposed.

Texas +2 at Kansas State

Seeing KSU favored here is a bit of a head scratcher.  Sure both teams are 3-3, have had pretty tough schedules and been competitive in all matches. But Texas has more talent and a better offense with running back D’Onta Foreman having a big season and freshman quarterback Shane Buechele leading a powerful offense. Do the Wildcats have what it takes to keep the pace? We’re not so sure as quarterback Zach Ertz is playing with injury issues.

Texas is coming off a nice comeback win vs Iowa State in it’s best defensive performance of the season. Look for them to build off that as Charlie Strong is too good a defensive coach for their poor play to continue.

Western Michigan -23.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

The spread is really big here, much bigger than we reasonably should consider betting on, but the difference between these teams is significant. We’ve bet on the Broncos before and they have yet to let us down, plus they’re at home in Kalamazoo.

Eastern Michigan is having a phenomenal year and is 5-2, so you can see why they’re not getting more points.

Western Michigan is undefeated and has beaten power five schools in Northwestern and Illinois. They’ve also won their last six by an average of 31. Their offense ranks 8th in the country lead by QB Zach Terrell, WR Corey Davis, and RB Jarvion Franklin, while their defense ranks 13th nationally.

Eastern Michigan lost to Toledo by 15 at home a couple weeks ago and the Broncos are significantly better. Take the 23.5 and thank us later.

Syracuse +4.5 at Boston College

Oh, that’s right, we called Syracuse in the upset of the week against Virginia Tech, so it’s time to ride the Orange again.  While BC isn’t as miserable offensively as they were a year ago, their defense has fallen off significantly from the elite levels they played at in 2015.

In similar games, Syracuse has simply looked better, upsetting Va Tech for example when BC lost by 49. Syracuse also managed to put up 28 against Louisville while BC was manhandled by Clemson 56-10.

Syracuse head coach Dino Babers seems to have the offense rolling and his sophomore quarterback Eric Dungey is playing well. The Cuse are the better team here, this is an easy call.

Colorado +2 at Stanford

This is an interesting one. The Buffaloes have the most votes of any team not in the rankings so they’re essentially the defacto 26th team in the country. They’re also playing at a very high level and are the only team in the country that’s unbeaten ATS. No small feat.

More so, Colorado is rolling on offense and defense, ranking in the top 30 nationally in both categories. Though it’s at Stanford and both teams have two losses, these teams are playing at very different levels right now.

Christian McCaffrey’s status to return in this one is still uncertain and Stanford needs him desperately. They’re currently 121st in the nation with a 19 point per game scoring average and the defense doesn’t even rank higher than Colorado.

Unless Stanford finds some quick solutions on offense in this one, they should really struggle against the Buffs 23rd ranked passing defense allowing only 179 yards per game. Colorado is still learning to win on the road right now, so if they were getting points I might hesitate, but in this case, I like our chances.

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Big Game Hunting

Texas A&M +18 at Alabama

I’d understand if Alabama was favored by 7.5 or even 10.5 in Tuscaloosa, considering that after all, they’re the most talented and best-coached team in the country. But against unbeaten Texas A&M, the No. 6 ranked team in the country 18 is just disrespectful.

It’s not like A&M HC Kevin Sumlin hasn’t done it before (2012) and quarterback Trevor Knight beat Alabama in one of the biggest upsets of the Nick Saban era. Has Vegas forgotten the 32-of-44 passing, 348 yards, four touchdowns and one interception clinic Knight put on the Tide in the 2014 Sugar Bowl? A 45-31 win that was even worse than the score would suggest. Look, it’s hard to imagine anyone beating ‘Bama in their house with all the talent they have, but if there’s a team that can do it, it’s these Aggies. They have the horses, with a great pair of pass rushers and safeties on the defensive side, plus tons of speed and talent on the attack.

Give us the A&M and let’s see if Alabama’s ambitious spread proves to be accurate.

Auburn -9.5 vs. Arkansas

The Tigers are surprising some here as they’ve snuck into the 21st spot in the rankings with a 4-2 record in a fairly quiet season so far. Then, you look at their two losses and they’re both against top five teams. Auburn has also played much better recently.

More importantly, the Auburn defense ranks 11th nationally, having allowed only 16 points per game. Arkansas is coming off two very emotional weeks with a big loss to Alabama followed by a nice win against Mississippi last week. The grind of their early SEC schedule is bound to catch up. While the Hogs have been able to pass the ball much better this year the Tigers tough defense should prove to be a real test.

Add that to Gus Malzhan, one of the best play callers in the nation getting his offense rolling and I like Auburn to cover here.

Mississippi +6.5 at Louisiana State

It’s hard to say who these LSU Tigers truly are in 2016. They’ve lost the two games against their best opponents in close bouts, while also having to postpone their matchup against Florida. Their best win is either a 23-20 game against Mississippi State at home or a 42-7 ‘W’ vs Missouri. Neither of those teams is all that good.

So, even though Mississippi is coming off a tough loss at Arkansas, they’re certainly the most battle-tested team of the two in 2016. Their record in those big games isn’t all that better, though they had chances to win in all three matches aginst ranked opponents.

Seems to me this spread is getting a bump with Leonard Fournette returning to the field. That’s certainly a big difference maker and the Tigers have played great defense (4th in the country allowing 14 a game). But 6.5 is just too much considering how little we really know about them so far. Give us the Rebels.