Using Vegas’ numbers against the spread: part one

 

First and foremost, the numbers we’re using to bust the spread here aren’t Vegas’, per-say, but rather our sponsor MyBookie.ag.

Let’s get into it. There’s reliable data and there’s unreliable data; we’ll be talking about that a lot because ultimately there’s no magic formula, but there is a way to use reliable numbers. In this case, the numbers we’re using are fairly efficient as we’re using the over/under lines for team wins.

The concept is this: it’s hard to beat the house because Vegas and the line-setters have more experience and resources than your average bettor. So, why not take advantage of that? A super efficient metric is the over/unders for win totals set. There’s months of time to gather information and make accurate estimates on seasonal win totals, endless time to adjust for additions and subtractions to a roster, taking into account regression models and endless other factors, that the average better might not even consider or be able to properly quantify.

While it’s easy to overreact to some of the early week’s results, the over/unders can be relied on if for nothing else, because it’s what the same line makers who are setting the spread actually think about these teams.

So how do we do this? To get started, you must understand the general rule here is a half point in the win total is equal to a point in the weekly spread. That gives you a baseline to figure out where the spread should be once you add the requisite 3 points for home field advantage.

The following model went 11-4-1 against the spread in Week 1 of the NFL season. There where three underdogs our model suggested would be outright winners and those three went 2-0-1 with a push on the Dallas line.

Here’s how it broke down and some of the notable outliers.

Want to make a wager on these outcomes? Try MyBookie.LV and use the code BSNDENVER for a 100% match of your deposit. CLICK LINK HERE

What Worked:

Denver Broncos

Denver was a three-point underdog at home in the season opener. Given the over/under numbers set at 9 for the Broncos and 10.5 for the Carolina Panthers, that spread would have been fair in a neutral site. However, in the Mile High City, one of the better home-field advantages in the league -a handful of teams get a bump for notable home-field advantages, getting bumped up to 3.5- things were evened out. Ultimately, our numbers had Denver as a slight, half point favorite.

The Broncos sneaked by with a missed field goal in the last seconds, but would have covered the spread even with the make.

Oakland Raiders

With Denver and Dallas (below) the one other team given as an outright winner, despite being an underdog on the weekly line, was Oakland. The Raiders, projected to win 8.5 games to the New Orleans Saints 7, pushed the game to an even spread per our metrics. The line, however, favored New Orleans by two at home.

Oakland pulled off the win with a two-point conversion in the final stages of the game. As far as an even line you couldn’t ask for a much better prediction than that.

Dallas Cowboys kinda

So, admittedly there was a bit of luck with Denver and Oakland pulling off their upsets, but that luck reversed on the Cowboys, who didn’t get out of bounds with a potential winning field goal in reach. This line was also the riskiest of all, as there was truly no knowing how Dak Prescott would perform, but remember that’s the beauty of the over/under line: it’s all taken into account already.

Regardless, the Cowboys still managed to push -basically matching the spread figure so there’s no winner or loser- in losing by one, exactly what the Giants were favored by.

11-4-1 

Lets be clear here, this is still Week 1, so we have to take this all with a grain of salt, but eleven wins to four losses and a push ain’t too shabby either. What does that mean? It means that if you look at the numbers (chart below) you’ll see that the suggested line we have was extremely accurate in telling you which way to go with the spread. If the suggested number was higher then the line, that meant to beat the over, if the suggested line was lower then the actual line you should have bet the under.

Want to make a wager on these outcomes? Try MyBookie.LV and use the code BSNDENVER for a 100% match of your deposit. CLICK LINK HERE

What didn’t:

Kansas City Chiefs

There was a common outlier with the four misses: teams who were favored big not covering or losing outright. Each case was a bit unique.

The Chiefs not covering the 6.5 points was the toughest to swallow. A team that’s now becoming known for starting slow, pulled off the biggest comeback in franchise history, forced overtime and won by a touchdown. So wait why didn’t they cover? Well, because in OT when you win by a touchdown there’s no extra point needed, game over, so the Chiefs didn’t cover, but they did win by a touchdown..

Welcome to gambling!

Seattle Seahawks

So, like any sound football fan, our numbers thought that Seattle should have been a two-score favorite at home against the Miami Dolphins. The line was set at 10 when the dust settled late in the week and our projected line had them at 9.5. I suppose, you could argue our line suggested they wouldn’t cover, but a half point we won’t count, as our suggested spread was in line with the MyBookie spread.

Squeaking out a two-point win wasn’t what you expected from tSeahawksaks, who also dealt with a banged up quarterback later in the game.

Just a reminder that early on, we still don’t really know anything. Like KC, Seattle’s slow starts could be on the verge of becoming a trend. No matter how you slice it, this was unexpected.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts over/under of 9.5 might just be one of the few that’s off, or we can chalk this up to an early season surprise loss. Regardless, the model was off on this one spread more than any other, suggesting Indy at as an eight point favorite only to see the Colts lose on a last minute field goal.

The Colts never really had a chance of covering the three point spread, going up 35-34 and then getting scored on late and allowing a safety on an attempted lateral to lose by four.

Worst line of the entire bunch, we’ll take it.

Atlanta Falcons

The losers were so few we can talk about each one. The Falcons went up against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that looked much better than them. This is where the model falls short. Just like Indy could be overrated at 9.5, Tampa certainly seemed superior to the 7.5 both they and the Falcons were listed. If you flip those two totals and give Tampa 9.5 and Indy 7.5, the model is almost perfect. Just saying.

Indianapolis was an interesting team that we spoke about in our regression projections as well. Tampa however, wasn’t a standout regression or progression candidate and they didn’t really make many headlines or blockbuster moves in the offseason. But they do have a potential young budding star behind center. Jamies Winston’s development could certainly be an outlier in these models and make a bigger jump than anyone expected. Worth keeping an eye on, though it’s probably all Week 1 overreactions and we should stick to the numbers.

Want to make a wager on these outcomes? Try MyBookie.LV and use the code BSNDENVER for a 100% match of your deposit. CLICK LINK HERE

Stay tuned for part two Wednesday morning for our Vegas against the spread winners for Week 2

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
CAR	-3	10.5	3
@DEN		9		3.5	0.5	3.5
TB		7.5
@ATL	-2.5	7.5	0	3	3	0.5
MIN	-2.5	9.5	7		4	1.5
@TEN		6		3
CLE		4.5
@PHI	-3.5	7.5	6	3	9	5.5
CIN	-1	9.5	4		1	0
@NYJ		7.5		3
OAK		8.5	3		0	2
@NO	-2	7		3
SD		7
@KC	-6.5	9.5	5	3	8	1.5
BUF		8
@BAL	-3	8.5	1	3	4	1
CHI		7.5
@HOU	-4.5	8.5	2	3	5	0.5
GB	-4.5	10.5	6		3	1.5
@JAX		7.5		3
MIA		7.5
@SEA	-10	10.5	6	3.5	9.5	0.5
NYG	-1	8.5	0
@DAL		8.5		3	3	4
DET		7
@IND	-3	9.5	5	3	8	5
NE		10.5	1
@AZ	-7	10		3	2	5
PIT	-3	10.5	6		3	0
@WSH		7.5		3
LAR	-2.5	7.5	4		1	1.5
@SF		5.5		3