After reports surfaced this week that Juancho Hernangomez will likely play next season in Denver and Mike Miller has agreed to a two-year deal worth at least $5 million to stay with the Nuggets, the team has 14 players with guaranteed contracts locked in for next season.
Teams are allowed to carry 15 players on their roster and the Nuggets now have to decide who gets their final spot.
The Candidates:
Lauvergne is the clubhouse leader to return next season. The coaching staff is familiar with the 24-year-old and seems to trust him on both ends of the floor. Lauvergne averaged 17.6 minutes per game last season, roughly five minutes less than Nikola Jokic and just as many as Jusuf Nurkic logged.
If he’s back in Denver next season, his minutes should drop. Jokic will command much more playing time than he did last year and Lauvergne racked up a lot of minutes at the start of the season when Jokic wasn’t playing a ton. Nurkic should be in better shape than he was last year as well and he’ll also take away minutes from Lauvergne. Yet, with the Bosnian’s injury history, it might be a good idea to carry a third center on the roster.
Lauvergne struggles defensively and Denver had a putrid 109.8 DefRtg when he was on the floor last season. While his rim protection metrics aren’t awful, opposing teams aren’t affected by his presence in the paint. Offensively, Lauvergne is fairly limited, but his best attribute is an inconsistent jumper that he completely lost after the All-Star break. The Frenchman’s 3-point percentage dropped from a respectable 34.3 percent to 5.6 percent (1-18) during the second half of the season.
All that aside, Lauvergne is a hard worker and scrappy big who will out-hustle his man to a loose ball and you can never question his effort – there’s something to say for that. He played through some nasty injuries last season and coach Michael Malone loves his competitiveness. Lauvergne is only making $1.7 million next season, half of which guarantees on Aug. 15 and he’ll be locked in for his full salary if he’s on the roster for the first game of the season.
Toupane, who the Nuggets signed out of the D-League last season, played 21 games with Denver and averaged 14.5 minutes per game. The 24-year-old didn’t show much last year in limited action but came to the Nuggets with an NBA body and 3-and-D potential.
At Summer League, it looked like Toupane bulked up even more over the summer and was solid defending on the perimeter and even around the basket. He was an absolute tank compared to the competition in Las Vegas and was simply able to overpower his man on both ends of the floor.
He shot 32.5 percent from three last season and that 3-and-D potential is still there. I’d even argue he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet and still has some room to grow as a player, unlike Lauvergne. His jumper looks fine and should get better if Toupane gets more minutes, but how much would he actually see the floor in Denver next season?
On the wing, he’s behind Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Will Barton and won’t come close to the 14 minutes per game he averaged last season. He’d likely be inactive a lot of the season alongside Malik Beasley unless injuries thrust one of them into the rotation.
There’s simply no room for Toupane with how Denver’s roster breaks down at the current moment, which is a shame, because from a pure basketball standpoint I’d rather him than Lauvergne. It’s also ironic that the Nuggets’ last roster spot may come down to two friends who grew up together in France.
Sampson’s best NBA attribute may be how great of a teammate he is. The 23-year-old is one of the best locker room guys that I’ve seen come through Denver and is beloved by his teammates. Unfortunately, that’s not enough to keep him on the roster.
Coming into Summer League, I was hoping (perhaps unrealistically) to see Sampson improve his jumper. His form has always looked wonky and he shot 1-4 from three in Las Vegas, so it’s too early to tell what improvements he’s made, if any. On offense, he’s fairly limited to driving towards the hoops and looking to finish or get fouled. His lack of shooting also gave the Nuggets spacing issues when he played heavy minutes with Emmanuel Mudiay and Kenneth Faried down the stretch last season.
Defense is Sampson’s calling card. He’s athletic, long, and can lock down his man when fully engaged. Sampson is just 23 and younger than both Lauvergne and Toupane, but I feel like this is the player Sampson is going to be, while the slightly older Toupane still has tools to unlock. Sampson was valuable last season because he became Denver’s best perimeter defender with the injuries the Nuggets suffered last season and was someone Malone could stick on the opposition’s best defender. The same could be said next season, but his skill-set doesn’t separate him from his competition with a fully healthy group of wings.
Sampson and Toupane are both on team-friendly deals and their salaries (both less than $1 million) don’t become guaranteed until January 10.
Final Verdict
In the grand scheme of things ahead for the Nuggets this season, the 15th roster spot isn’t likely something that’s going to make or break their season and there’s an argument out there to keep Lauvergne, Toupane, and if you’re really reaching, Sampson.
Ultimately this is Lauvergne’s job to lose based on the acumen he’s built over the past two years and familiarity and trust the coaching staff has in him. It might be a good idea to keep Lauvergne just so you can potentially trade him down the line for his value on the open market is certainly higher than either Toupane or Sampson.
The first half of Lauvergne’s contract becomes guaranteed on Aug. 15, which may or may not be a rough timeline on when this decision could come.
Sampson was one of Malone’s favorites last season for his ability on the defensive end of the floor, but may not be in Denver next year.
