Scouting report: Broncos quarterback of the future, Paxton Lynch

Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis, 6-foot-7, 244 pounds

So the Broncos got their franchise quarterback. They had to trade up and sacrifice one of their prized top-100 picks (No. 94 overall) in addition to pick No. 31 but he was their guy. Still the Broncos are still left with one second and third round pick this year and three third round picks next year. It’s a bit to give up, but if you think you’ve got your future franchise quarterback, that’s peanuts!

Paxton Lynch becomes only the fourth quarterback in franchise history to be taken in the first round, after Tommy Maddox, Jay Cutler and Tim Tebow. That’s a mixed group, and Lynch certainly doesn’t give any guarantees. He’s a raw quarterback (see: Auburn game) and comes from an offense that is atypical and will require a bit of a learning curve to a more pro-style NFL offense. Lynch was rumored to be liked by the Broncos more than other teams and that is explained by the type of quarterback he is. There isn’t a better quarterback throwing on the run and most especially from uncomfortable platforms (with his hips not squared or from his back foot).

Earlier in the month we offered you five potential quarterback options for the Broncos and Lynch was the first name on the list, here were my thoughts at the time:

Paxton Lynch

Where to start with Paxton Lynch? He truly is one of the more unique and unusual draft prospects you’ll learn about, primarily because his journey to major college football is different from most and because despite great success in the 2015 season his tape is almost “a tale of two seasons”.

First off, Lynch is extremely raw, definitely the rawest of the players on this list. This is in large part because Lynch didn’t play at a big high school, and wasn’t a hot-shot recruit. He hasn’t attended specialized training camps from the time he was in middle school like so many of these kids do these days.

Lynch arrived at Memphis and took over the starting job in 2013. He has flashed high-end potential since then. He peaked this last season leading Memphis to a top-25 ranking and completing the upset of Ole Miss. Here’s the thing about Lynch’s 2015 season, (though people started paying attention after the Ole Miss win, and the hype train started to go off the rails) Lynch didn’t complete many NFL throws against Ole Miss or the better defenses he faced in conference play.  In fact, the second half of Lynch’s 2015 season is very hard to project. While at the beginning of the year, Lynch was unleashing his big arm downfield and making NFL throws down the sideline and in tight windows, he and the Memphis offense started to go to a much heavier screen and short passing game. Add the fact that Lynch was always playing out of the shotgun and in a high-tempo spread offense, and his second half of the season has very few deep or tight window throws. Mostly, he would settle on short passes or scramble around and creates space, to then throw it to an open receiver. All this is to say, it’s unclear what Paxton Lynch the Broncos would be getting the one who’s tools and potential is mouth-watering, that we saw in the first half of 2015, or the screen happy QB we saw in the second half of the season, which all came to a disastrous crash in the performance against Auburn in the bowl game.

These are major concerns and Lynch is a major gamble in this sense. Lynch’s raw tools are very intriguing; he has a cannon of an arm which you see in the easy velocity and air he’s able to create on deep throws, and also on the zip he’ll put on passes down the middle in tight spaces. Though his release isn’t picture perfect, he both winds and releases low (not what you’d like from a tall QB) he does get the ball out quick. Since going back to study early tape of Lynch, I’ve become more of a fan of his accuracy, especially on deep throws, though this is definitely an area he’ll still have to work on.  On the other hand, Lynch has so many areas to work on, think of every skill that makes Tom Brady great, accuracy ability to read a defense quickly, poise in the pocket etc. these are all weak points for Lynch. First and foremost, he’ll have some major adjustments to make from the spread offense he’s coming from to a more conventional pro-style offense. He wasn’t asked to do any pre-snap audibles, line adjustments, or any other pre-snap responsibilities, he’ll have a steep learning curve. His footwork is a complete work in progress, he’s a very good athlete at his size and throws well on the run, but he needs to work on his drops as well as keeping his feet active in the pocket and navigating a moving pocket. That on top of this weird tape makes Lynch a big question mark, though it’s undeniable that he has lots of the raw tools that would especially look nice in Kubiak’s offense.

I stand by every single word written there and am glad I can stand by that report and not have to write one with the emotion of the pick already having been made.

Make no mistake about this, Paxton Lynch has the highest potential in this class. He has some physical similarities to Osweiller, and his second half of the season tape (the one that I wasn’t as high on) was very similar to the type of player that Brock was at Arizona State and in his brief tenure as a starter in Denver. That’s Lynch’s floor if he can just develop some of his rough edges, his footwork (which has improved leaps in bounds since becoming Division-I QB), his ability to go through progressions and make pre-snap decisions he’ll be an average level starter. Where Lynch becomes really intriguing is if he can smooth out his rough edges and play with the confidence and ability he showed in the first-half of the season in Memphis. Then you’ve got a quarterback who’s a combination of Flacco and Big Ben and could extend this team’s window of contention from ten to fifteen years. This is a risk without a doubt and giving up a third round pick makes it that much riskier, but Elway and Kubiak are betting on themselves and on the high potential of a player that could truly pay off in the long run.