Nuggets fall 107-99 to Blazers in finale, but the future is bright in Denver

 

The Nuggets closed out their season with a 107-99 loss the the Trail Blazers in Portland, but the last two rookie classes starred as the Nuggets were led by Emmanuel Mudiay (25 points), Gary Harris (16 points), Nikola Jokic (18 points, 13 rebounds) and Jusuf Nurkic (11 points, 14 rebounds, 5 steals, 3 blocks). While it would have been nice to go out with a win, the Nuggets increased their chances of ending up with a top pick in this year’s NBA Draft and the Houston Rockets win secured a third first round pick (#15) as well, so overall it was a solid night for the future of the Denver Nuggets Franchise.

When/Where

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 at Moda Center – Portland, OR

Star of the Game

Emmanuel Mudiay – 25 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds – It’s fitting that Mudiay would lead the Nuggets in the last game of a season in which he has had plenty of struggles, but continued to improve steadily as well. His jump shot was falling much more consistently and he looked much more comfortable finishing at the rim as the season progressed, giving the Nuggets fans hope that they have the two premium positions (Point Guard and Center) locked down for years to come.

Season Long Story

It’s a story that feels like it played out in all 82 games this year as the Nuggets got off to a fast start, grabbing significant leads here and there before ending up ahead by a slim margin at halftime. As the second half begins, the lead goes away and the Nuggets opponents pull away to a comfortable double-digit lead. At some point either late in the third, or early in the fourth quarter, the Nuggets rally to make the game close before ultimately falling just short of pulling off an upset. If the Nuggets can limit their second half swoons next season, it will go a long way towards getting them back into the playoffs.

Miller Time

Mike Miller got just his second start of the season the final game of the year, and came out firing as he knocked down his first three point attempt off of an assist from Emmanuel Mudiay. Miller would miss his next three attempts from long range and finished with just five points, four rebounds, three assists and two steals in 18 minutes on the court, but it was good to see Miller, who had such a great influence in the locker room this year, get some playing time and a chance to showcase his skills one last time this season.

Twin Towers

The highs and lows of the Nuggets’ experimental starting lineup were evident from the start as the Nuggets dominated the glass when both Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic were on the court, but struggled on the defensive end, leaving plenty of wide open jump shots thanks to slow/missed rotations. The big guys were able to contribute in other ways too though, showcasing their above-average court vision, finishing with a ridiculous combined stat-line of 29 points, 27 rebounds, nine assists, five steals and 3 blocks on 12-23 shooting.

Plays of the Game

Kenneth Faried hits his second career three pointer. He’s now shooting 50% on the season (1-2):

Nuggets with 8 passes in one possession leading to a Nurkic layup:

By the Numbers

The most important numbers for the Nuggets entering the offseason are their draft picks, so here’s where they stand after the final night of the regular season:

Second Round: The Nuggets own the Charlotte Hornets second round pick, which will end up between #51 and #54 as well as the Oklahoma City Thunder’s pick at #56.

Portland Pick: The Trail Blazers selection that will be heading the Nuggets way ends up at #18 or #19, and wasn’t expected to be conveyed for a while considering the low expectations for Portland coming into the season. This pick was lottery protected this year and next, and would have turned into two future second-rounders if not conveyed by 2017.

Houston Pick: The Rockets win locked them into the final playoff spot, meaning the Nuggets will get the 15th selection in this year’s draft, which is pretty good for a pick that was protected 1-14 and expected to end up in the late-20s when the trade was originally made. This pick would have turned into Portland’s 2017 second-round pick if Houston missed the playoffs this year, so thank you Rockets!

Lottery Pick: The Nuggets will essentially get to combine the lottery odds of the New York Knicks and their own for the NBA Draft Lottery as they have the right to swap picks with the Knicks. The Knicks ended up with the seventh worst record in the league, translating to a 4.3% chance at the top pick and a 15% chance at a top three pick. With the Nuggets loss, they end up tied with the Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks for the eigth-tenth worst records, meaning the lottery odd for those spots will be split evenly among the three teams, which translates roughly to a 1.9% chance at the top pick and 6.8% chance at a top three pick. So in total, the Nuggets will end up with a 6.2% chance at the #1 overall pick and a 21.7% chance at picking in the top three.

Quote of the Game

“It’s exciting and encouraging, and what even excites me even more is that we have some opportunities to add even more pieces and continue to improve.” -Nuggets head coach Michael Malone

Here is the entire audio of head coach Michael Malone’s final post-game press conference of the season:

Lasting Impact

The 2015-16 season comes to a close for the Denver Nuggets, but there is plenty of reason to look forward to the coming months for the Nuggets franchise. Armed with draft picks, promising youngsters and affordable veterans, the Nuggets are primed for an active offseason as they look to make their way back into the playoff and championship conversations in the near future. Here is a look back on each of the players who suited up for the Nuggets this season and whether or not they’re likely to don the powder blue when the 2016-17 NBA season tips off:

The Starting Five

Emmanuel Mudiay

Mudiay came into the season with the weight of Nuggets Nation on his shoulders and in the end, performed right up to expectations. Teams took advantage as he took time to get used to the speed of the NBA, and his shooting was historically bad to start the year, especially at the rim, but Mudiay took his lumps and just continued to improve throughout the season. Teams no longer blitz Mudiay as he crosses half court and his shot has become significantly more consistent, so there’s plenty of reason to believe that Mudiay will be able to take a major step forward after an offseason of work with the Nuggets coaching staff. The one thing that has been evident from the start is Mudiay’s top notch court-vision and ability to make passes that only a handful of players in the NBA have the ability to make consistently.

2015-16 Grade: C+

2016-17 Outlook: Mudiay’s combination of incredible potential, while still being somewhat of a work-in-progress means he likely has the most job security of any Nuggets player, which is a good thing for Denver.

Gary Harris

Gary Harris developing into a legitimate 3-and-D threat with impressive athleticism has to be the (non-Jokic) happy surprise of the season for the Nuggets. With so many other talented youngsters on the roster, it’s easy to overlook Harris’ accomplishments, but he may be the single-most important piece of the Nuggets improved play this season. If Harris can continue at his current defensive level on the perimeter and play more aggressively on offense, he’s absolutely the type of player that can be a key piece to a championship-level team.

2015-16 Grade: A

2016-17 Outlook: Unless a superstar Shooting Guard becomes available via trade this offseason and the other team demands that Harris is a part of the return package, expect to see G starting next season on the court for Denver again.

Danilo Gallinari

The Rooster played in fewer than 60 games for the third time in his four seasons with the Nuggets and continues to struggle to stay on the court. When healthy, he’s the closest thing the Nuggets have to a bona fide All-Star on the roster and has shown in stretches that he has the ability to carry the team and go toe-to-toe with the leagues best. Gallo averaged over 20 points per game (20.3) for the first time in his career, largely thanks to his ability to get to the free-throw line and convert (7.3-8.5 for 86.8%).

2015-16 Grade: B- (Lost a letter grade for missed time)

2016-17 Outlook: Injury issues aside, Gallo probably has the highest trade value of any player on the Nuggets roster. It’s hard to imagine a trade for a legitimate star player that isn’t built around Gallinari or Faried, so much depends on how worried other teams are about Gallinari’s continued injury issues and which stars become available in the offseason.

Kenneth Faried

The Manimal had an up-and-down season, occasionally showing the type of high-energy, athletic play that earned him so much respect on the US National Team, but just as often fading into the significant shadows of Jusuf Nurkic and especially Nikola Jokic.

2015-16 Grade: C+

2016-17 Outlook:  Faried’s lack of size and shooting ability are major liabilities, but he could be very valuable to a team as an energy player off of the bench ala Will Barton of the front court. Whether that can/will happen in Denver will be interesting to see as Faried could very well be on the move. Depending on whether or not Darrell Arthur picks up his player option for next season, the Nuggets could have a glut of cheaper, younger big guys on the roster and there’s likely to be a number of teams out there interested in adding a fan-favorite like the Manimal.

Nikola Jokic

Even hard core Nuggets fans who followed the Joker’s Adriatic League success have to be surprised at how quickly Jokic has been able to translate his game to the NBA. His statistics are off the charts and if he had played more minutes early in the season, he would have a significant chance to challenge Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns for Rookie of the Year honors. The emergence of Jokic gives the Nuggets all sorts of option as they can count on having the Center position locked down with a true playmaker for years to come.

2015-16 Grade: A+

2016-17 Outlook: The only way Jokic ends up playing anywhere other than Denver is if the Nuggets are blown away with an offer for a player that will immediately launch them into the thick of the playoff race/championship contention. Of the names that have been tossed around recently (Kevin Love, Jimmy Butler), I’m not sure any of them are worth giving up on the unique talent of Nikola Jokic this early in his career.

The Sixth (Through 10th) Men

Will Barton

Will the Thrill went from being a salary-matching throw-in in the Arron Afflalo trade to a legitimate Sixth Man and Most Improved Player Award candidate. He has faded a bit down the stretch and has struggled with consistency overall, but Barton was often the most effective scorer on the court for the Nuggets over the first half of the season and often anchored the bench unit before Augustin took over that mantle after the trade deadline. Barton entered Wednesday night’s finale against his former team having played 2,328 minutes on the season, nearly tripling his previous high of 983 in his third season in the league split between Denver and Portland, so the late-season swoon is understandable and shouldn’t take away from his previous accomplishments.

2015-16 Grade: B

2016-17 Outlook: Barton has an unbelievably cheap contract as he’ll earn just $3.5 million over the next two seasons, so unless a team insists that he’s part of a package for an All-Star, expect to see The People’s Champ back in a Nuggets uniform next season.

Jusuf Nurkic

It was a slow start to the Bosnian Beast’s sophomore campaign as his offseason knee surgery kept him out of action much longer than expected. When he did return to the court, it looked like a struggle, eventually leading to decreased minutes and rumors of attitude problems behind closed doors. All that went away down the stretch as he’s seen increased minutes and increased effectiveness over the course of the last month of the season. Nurkic still needs to work on finishing aggressively at the rim and avoiding silly fouls by reaching in on defense.

2015-16 Grade: C-

2016-17 Outlook: He’ll certainly be part of nearly every trade rumor that pops up before next season, but one reason the Nuggets should keep Nurkic around is that he’s the only player on the team with the size and ability to provide consistent rim protection, something of great value in today’s NBA that can help make up for guards who struggle defensively or that like to gamble, jumping the passing lanes.

Darrell Arthur

DA was consistently the best frontcourt defender for the Nuggets all season long and became a legitimate threat from long range, knocking down 38.5% of his three point attempts. Arthurs value as a veteran presence in a Nuggets frontcourt with three young bigs still finding their way in the league is invaluable, especially with Faried’s up-and-down play for the past few seasons.

2015-16 Grade: A

2016-17 Outlook: Arthur loves playing in Denver, and the Denver Post’s Chris Dempsey covered his chances of sticking around in depth just a few days ago.

Joffrey Lauvergne

King Joffrey saw his playing time increase and decrease, riding a roller coaster of minutes as players got injured and got healthy. Whether he was called upon to play 30+ minutes or mop up duty, Joffrey gave consistent effort and was often the most effective rebounder on the floor for Denver. He has the ability to knock down long range jumpers, but his confidence faded late in the year, so there’s no doubt that Joffrey will be spending a whole lot of time shooting corner threes this offseason.

2015-16 Grade: B-

2016-17 Outlook: If the Nuggets chase a proven All-Star this offseason, there’s a good chance they’ll have to give up at least one of their other two young big guys (Jokic, Nurkic) and potentially one of the veterans (Faried, DA), so in that scenario, Joffrey would provide some much needed depth to the frontcourt. Lauvergne’s 2016-17 $1.7 million contract is non-guaranteed, so while immensely affordable, it also makes him a valuable trade chip in his own right.

DJ Augustin

Augustin made his impact felt immediately after coming over to Denver in a trade deadline deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder for Randy Foye. DJ became a reliable scorer for the team’s second unit, a true three point threat (shooting 41% since the trade) and a steady, veteran hand to run the point when Emmanuel Mudiay is out of the game (or even playing alongside him!). His defense could be described as shaky in the best of times, but nothing that can’t be made up for as the young Nuggets frontcourt players learn how to help from the weak-side on drives.

2015-16 Grade: A

2016-17 Outlook: Augustin has been very impressive for the Nuggets, but could also have played his way out of the Nuggets price range if another team out there is willing to pay him starter’s money. DJ seems to like it in Denver, but it will be hard for him to pass up the opportunity for a big payday, especially if a team brings him in to be their starting point guard. The fact that the Nuggets have Jameer Nelson locked in for two more years means they don’t have to break the bank to keep Augustin in powder blue if another team comes calling for him.

The Fill-Ins/Walking Wounded

Jameer Nelson

Nelson’s season was cut short by a combination of injury, the youth movement and the Nuggets trade deadline deal for DJ Augustine. Nelson was slowed by a wrist injury leading into the All-Star break and saw the court just three times in the second half of the season as newcomer Augustine thrived in the role of backup point guard. Nelson has been a true pro throughout his time in Denver and the fact that he’s been quietly relegated to the bench without complaint after playing such an important role for the Nuggets last year shows the type of character he has

2015-16 Grade: Incomplete

2016-17 Outlook: Augustine has been fantastic as the veteran backup for Emmanuel Mudiay and scoring anchor off of the bench for the Nuggets, but he is an unrestricted free agent this year and Denver has Nelson locked into a very reasonable contract for the next two (~$4.5 million per year), so Nelson’s future in Denver likely depends on how other teams value Augustine and how much the Nuggets are willing to spend to bring him back.

Mike Miller

Miller was a bright light in the locker room as well as on the bench all season for the Nuggets. He could be seen checking in with younger players during time-outs or cheering them on and encouraging them throughout the games. Miller averaged just 7.9 minutes per game, easily the lowest of his career, so he was a role-model for younger players and veterans alike that shows a player can have a huge effect on a team without even seeing the court. Miller became an “inbounds specialist” of sorts for head coach Michael Malone as he often came into games in crucial situations to get the ball in bounds before immediately being taken off the court at the next whistle.

2015-16 Grade: C- for on-court performance, A+ for attitude, inbounds plays and bench participation

2016-17 Outlook: The Nuggets would love to have Miller back in a similar role to the one he was in this year, so a lot depends on whether Miller is able to accept his position on a team as a mentor, unofficial coach and inbounds specialist, or if he tries to chase more consistent playing time elsewhere.

JaKarr Sampson

Sampson certainly brings a youthful exuberance to the team and has been able to fit in nicely with the starting unit since Gallo was shut down for the season with his ankle injury. His energy at the defensive end has been effective at the start of games and his athleticism is fun to watch when the team gets out on the break.

2015-16 Grade: C+

2016-17 Outlook: Barring a trade, both Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler will be manning the Small Forward position for the Nuggets next season, so unless Sampson can develop into a true lock-down defender or a lights-out shooter, he likely won’t see much more than spot duty next season. His contract and solid play does, however give the Nuggets a lot of flexibility this offseason, whether they look to improve through the draft or through a trade.

Axel Toupane

Toupane did enough during his two 10 day contracts with the Nuggets to earn a contract for the rest of the season. His potential as a 3-and-D wing player also led the Nuggets to include a non-guaranteed team option for next season, meaning Toupane has a lot to prove over the course of the offseason if he wants to stick in the NBA with the Nuggets next year.

2015-16 Grade: C

2016-17 Outlook: Much like with Sampson, a lot depends on the Nuggets offseason moves as Toupane’s non-guaranteed deal means he could just as easily be cut before the season if the roster is too full or provide some much needed wing-depth if the Nuggets trade a lot of pieces chasing an All-Star. A lot will depend on whether Toupane is able to improve his shooting (35% from 3 this year) or show that he can provide more than just spot-up corner threes on offense.

Wilson Chandler

Ill Will had Nuggets Nation flying high when he penned this letter to the city of Denver after re-signing with the team for four years, but his season was lost before it could start after undergoing surgery to repair a labral tear in his right hip. It’s the same surgery that cut his 2011-12 season off after 8 games, but to the other side.

2015-16 Grade: Incomplete

2016-17 Outlook: Chandler will certainly be the subject of many trade rumors in the offseason, but until he can prove that he’s healthy, he’ll likely provide the most value to the Nuggets by being on the roster again next year.

The Dearly Departed

Randy Foye – The Nuggets 3-point specialist who struggled to knock down 3-pointers had an admirable tenure in Denver despite his struggles from long range. He was the consummate professional and his positive attitude was a bright light during some of the darkest days of the Nuggets franchise, so while it made sense from a basketball standpoint, it was tough to see Foye go. The attention given to Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant hasn’t done much to help Foye’s shooting however as he’s still hover around 35% from the floor and 31% from long range with the Thunder.

JJ Hickson – The target of the ire of much of Nuggets Twitter Nation was finally released when he couldn’t be moved before the trade deadline and he was soon after picked up by the Washington Wizards. His playing time has been sporadic at best in the nation’s capital  as he has only seen more than 10 minutes of action in three games since the break.

Kostas Papanikolao – Papa returned to his native Greece after a couple of stints with the Nuggets that produced mixed results. He did provide some solid minutes while both Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler were out with injuries.

Sean Kilpatrick – Kilpatrick impressed during his 8-game stint in Denver, but not enough for the Nuggets to sign him through the end of the season. He seems to have found a home in Brooklyn however, as he has averaged 22.9 minutes and 13.9 points in 22 games for the Nets since then.

Erick Green – Green only saw time in three games for the Nuggets before he was released. He did manage to sign back-to-back 10 day contracts with the Utah Jazz, but averaged just 5.8 minutes and 2.2 points per game in Utah.

The Coach

Michael Malone

Malone came into the season with a roster full of injury-plagued, borderline All-Stars, aging veteran role-players and promising youngsters that needed to see the court both for their own development as well as for the team to see what kind of players they had on hand. Injuries reared their ugly head once again and the team shifted gears later in the season towards player development, but one thing that remained constant throughout the year was that this Denver Nuggets team fought hard in every game. You can count on one hand the number of games where it looked like the players had given up for the night, and that couldn’t contrast more with what Nuggets fans came to expect during the Brian Shaw era. The record may only be a few games better, but there’s no doubt that Michael Malone has this ship headed in the right direction.

2015-16 Grade: B+

2016-17 Outlook: Malone and the Nuggets front office have a lot of work to do in what is likely to be the most crucial offseason the team has faced since the Carmelo-era. The resources and talent are there to transform this young roster into a playoff team that can develop into a contender and it will be up to the organization’s leadership to, at the very least, get the franchise back into the playoffs after a three year drought.