Denver Nuggets will beat the odds, finish season with 34 wins

 

February began in promising fashion as the Nuggets jumped out to a 4-2 record in the month and went into the All-Star break with an excellent win over the Pistons in Detroit on the night that Chauncey Billups’ number was retired. Unfortunately, that promising start to the month gave way to a second half that saw the team drop five of six games and lose Danilo Gallinari to an ankle injury that will likely cost him the majority of the remaining games on the schedule.

While the loss of Gallo’s leadership and scoring will be a lot to overcome, it will be a good chance for Michael Malone to see what the youngsters on his team are made of and interesting to see who steps up to fill the void. Personally, I would love to see Gary Harris shoulder the load and look to get into the paint aggressively and get to the line as often as possible. As for the schedule, March brings a balanced slate, with equal games against above and below .500 teams, and nearly equal Home/Road and Eastern/Western Conference splits.

The Nuggets get their first taste in 2016 of a 4-games-in-5-nights stretch from March 27-31 as they complete a trip to face the LA teams against the Clippers on the 27th, followed by a home game against the Mavs on the 28th, then a day off before a back-to-back set in Memphis and New Orleans. This will mark the first such stretch of games since December 26-30 (they lost all four of those against the Spurs (road), Thunder (road), Cavs (home) and Blazers (road)). As the projections go along, I’ll link to some stories written before the season because it’s nice to see that, despite their recent struggles, this teams is still outperforming what many in the national media expected coming into the season.

March/April Overview

Total Games: 22

Home and Road: 12 and 10

Back-to-Backs: 3 (1 road-home, 2 road-road)

4-Games-in-5-Nights: 1

Games vs. Over .500 Teams: 11

Game-by-Game Projections (all times MST)

Game 1: Denver vs. LA Lakers, 7:00 pm, Wednesday, March 2

The Lakers finished the month of February on an eight-game losing streak, including back-to-back losses to the Memphis Grizzlies to close out the month. They did manage to beat the Nets at home a night before travelling to Denver, so there’s a good chance that their focus their energy and effort was spent on picking up a W against Brooklyn on Tuesday, leaving them tired and less motivated coming into the Mile High City which is never a good recipe for success (Kobe took Tuesday night off to be ready for the Denver game for whatever that’s worth at this point).

The Nuggets need to take advantage of the situation and see if they can manage to not just win the game, but win it without letting the Lakers sneak back into the game late. Denver fans will need to do their part to make sure they aren’t outnumbered in the crowd by Kobe fans as well. The win puts the Nuggets beyond the ridiculous projection of 23.5 total wins by this gambling-oriented blog.

Prediction: Nuggets win (1-0) (24-37 overall)

Game 2: Denver vs. Brooklyn, 7:00 pm, Friday, March 4

Denver hosts the Nets in the third game of their eight game homestand. Brooklyn, meanwhile, will be in game six of a nine game road trip and coming off two full days of rest after back-to-back games at the Staples Center against the Clippers and Lakers. Brooklyn was frisky over the course of February, picking up a handful of surprising wins, including a devastating last-second victory over the Nuggets on February 8th, but with leading scorer Joe Johnson taking his talents to South Beach, the Nets enter the month searching for a new identity as well. I expect the Nuggets won’t let the Nets eke out another win in Denver this time.

Prediction: Nuggets win (2-0) (25-37 overall)

Game 3: Denver vs. Dallas, 3:00 pm, Sunday, March 6

Dallas plays their first road game since February 19 (an overtime loss to the Magic) and just second since the All-Star break against the Nuggets in Denver. They will have two full days off after finishing a six game homestand against the Sacramento Kings. The Mavs won 4 of the first 5 games of that homestand, including the come-from-behind overtime win against the Nuggets that knocked Danilo Gallinari out with his ankle injury.

The fact that it’s the only road game in a 10-game stretch and that the Mavs head back home to play the Clippers the next night in Dallas leads me to believe this is a game that a motivated Nuggets team can sneak away with an get a little bit of revenge for the last two disappointing finishes against Dallas. The 26 wins also mark a victory over the oddsmakers at CBS Sportsline.

Prediction: Nuggets win (3-0) (26-37 overall)

Game 4: Denver vs. New York, 7:00 pm, Tuesday, March 8

The downward spirals of the Nuggets (previously noted woes) and Knicks (lost 15 of last 18 games) just increases the potential of the Nuggets being able to draft either Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram in a few months time. Each have their drawbacks, but at this point, they’re the only two that look like potential franchise-changers coming into the draft. The Raptors will take whichever is the less desirable of the two picks, but the more ping-pong balls designated for either of these two teams in the NBA Draft Lottery, the better for Denver at this point.

It happened later in the season this year, but with the Gallo injury,  www.tankathon.com has become a daily stop for me once again, and it is nice to see the Nuggets in the top-3 of some sort of power ranking, even if it is just for 2016 draft picks. The Knicks are a mess, so I’d be surprised to see them come out of Denver with a win to start a six-game road trip, even if Carmelo Anthony is extra motivated in his return to the Mile High.

Prediction: Nuggets win (4-0) (27-37 overall)

Game 5: Denver vs. Phoenix, 7:00 pm, Thursday, March 10

The Nuggets catch a break again as the Suns will come to town a night after hosting the Knicks in Phoenix. As bad as the Knicks spiral has been, the Suns have been even worse as their last consecutive wins came on December 7th/9th and since then they have only managed a dismal five wins in their last 36 games. Included in that terrible run are losing streaks of 9, 6 and 13.

With their most recent win coming on February 27th against the Memphis Grizzlies, history says that it’ll be a while before they pick up another one. Look for the Nuggets surprising start to March to continue thanks to fortunate scheduling. This win puts Denver beyond the 27 wins projected by ESPN before the season started, as well as the pre-season projection of Nylcon Calculus and the Westgate Super Book.

Prediction: Nuggets win (5-0) (28-37 overall)

Game 6: Denver vs. Washington, 7:30 pm, Saturday, March 12

The Wizards showed some signs of life in February, although sandwiching wins over the 76ers around a home victory over the semi-dysfunctional and Lebron-less Cleveland Cavaliers isn’t enough to signal that their struggles are officially over yet. Normally I would look for any reason to pick the Nuggets March winning streak to end, but the Nuggets catch yet another team on a back-to-back in March, and this time the Wizards will be on the back end of the brutal Utah-Denver combo, so this will be a game the Nuggets will have to try to wear out the athletic Wizards with a Doug-Moe-esque run and gun affair. It won’t be as easy as it should be, but look for the streak to continue at home.

Prediction: Nuggets win (6-0) (28-38 overall)

Game 7: Denver @ Miami, 5:30 pm, Monday, March 14

The Nuggets streak of scheduling luck runs out as the Heat will be well rested when the Nuggets come to town. They’ll also get a couple days off before facing the Hornets at home on St. Patrick’s Day, so the focus will be entirely on the Nuggets. Chris Bosh‘s status remains unclear, but after adding Joe Johnson for the stretch run, the Heat will be looking to remain in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. It was a good run to start the month, but as the homestand ends, so ends the winning streak as the Nuggets fall in South Beach.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (6-1) (28-39 overall)

Game 8: Denver @ Orlando, 5:00 pm, Tuesday, March 15

The Nuggets continue their tour of Florida with a stop in Orlando to take on the Magic. The Magic have been up and down recently, but are clearly more effective at home with wins over Atlanta and Dallas in February and close losses to the Spurs (2 pts) and Pacers (3 pts). The Magic will travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets the next night, but home court advantage will be huge and the Magic held the Nuggets to just 74 points in their previous matchup in Denver, so the Nuggets will likely be swept out of Florida with consecutive road losses.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (6-2) (28-40 overall)

Game 9: Denver @ Atlanta, 6:00 pm, Thursday, March 17

While the Hawks finished February at just 6-5, they were competitive in all five losses, with the only double-digit defeat at the hands of the other-worldy Golden State Warriors (102-92). On the flip-side, Atlanta hosts the Nuggets in a the middle of a three-games-in-four-nights stretch having faced the Pistons in Detroit the night before and hosting the Rockets two nights later. If the Nuggets had a healthy Gallo on the floor, that would be enough for me to chalk up a tough road win, but there are just too many scoring and leadership questions at the moment to expect a St Paddy’s Day surprise against a veteran-filled team like the Atlanta Hawks.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (6-3) (28-41 overall)

Game 10: Denver @ Charlotte, 4:00 pm, Saturday March 19

The East Coast swing continues as the Nuggets travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in a Saturday afternoon game. The Hornets had an outstanding month of February, going 7-3 with their losses coming against the Heat, Cavs and Hawks. In their previous game in Denver in January, the Nuggets pulled off a narrow 95-92 win, largely on the strength of Gallo’s 27 points, so again, somebody or at least some combination of players is going to need to pick up those 27 points for the Nuggets to come away with the series sweep in Charlotte.

Also in the Nuggets favor is that their game is smack in the middle of a conference matchup in Miami against the Heat and a home game against the nearly-historic-if-it-weren’t-for-the-Warriors San Antonio Spurs, setting up prime trap game potential, especially with the strange start time of the game. The Nuggets will be hungry enough to take advantage and pick up their first win of the road trip.

Prediction: Nuggets win (7-3) (29-41 overall)

Game 11: Denver @ Cleveland, 5:00 pm, Monday, March 21

Despite their recent “struggles,” LeBron and the Cavs are in the midst of a fight for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and likely won’t have any trouble taking care of the Nuggets at home. Move along folks, there’s nothing to see here.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (7-4) (29-42 overall)

Game 12: Denver vs. Philadelphia, 7:00 pm, Wednesday, March 23

The 76ers managed just one win in 12 February games, but the most remarkable thing is that it wasn’t their lowest win total for a month this season thanks to their 0-18 start to the year in October and November. Philly allowed all but two of their February opponents to score more than 100 points, so it will be a great chance for some of the Nuggets youngtsters to establish themselves offensively.

It’s hard to call any game a “must-win” for a team that’s on the outside looking in at the playoff race, but this is as close to a must-win as the Nuggets will have down the homestretch as far as the team’s morale goes. This win also puts Denver ahead of a number of other pre-season projections as well, including Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports’ Zach Harper and FiveThirtyEight (you’ll need to use the dropdown to select the projections from the preseason).

Prediction: Nuggets win (8-4) (30-42 overall)

Game 13: Denver @ LA Lakers, 8:30 pm, Friday, March 25

The Nuggets take up residency in the Staples Center for an Easter weekend series against the LA teams, starting with the Lakers on Friday night. The teams split their first two matchups of the year with both road teams winning, and I’ve projected another win for Denver to start off the month, so I see no reason for that not to continue at the end of March. The Lakers only win in their last nine games leading up to the time of this post was a squeaker at home over the Brooklyn Nets. It will be the last chance to see rookie point guards Emmanuel Mudiay and D’Angelo Russell match up against each other, so that will certainly be the non-Kobe story heading into this one.

Prediction: Nuggets win (9-4) (31-42 overall)

Game 14: Denver @ LA Clippers, 1:30 pm, Sunday, March 27

The Clippers will not take the Nuggets lightly after Kenneth Faried and friends embarrassed them in Denver in February for the Nuggets’ only win of the month after the All-Star break. LA will be fighting for playoff positioning and looking for revenge, so I don’t expect the Easter Bunny to bring a surprise win to Denver this year.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (9-5) (31-43 overall)

Game 15: Denver vs. Dallas, 7:00 pm, Monday, March 28

Speaking of embarrassing losses, the Nuggets make a quick stop back at home to host the Dallas Mavericks who managed to outscore the Nuggets by a ridiculous margin in the second halves of their first two games in Dallas this season (44-29 in the first, 64-52 in the second). The Nuggets got their revenge in the projected win earlier in the month and will be going into the game on short rest after spending the holiday weekend in LA, however, Dallas will also be making the trip in from California after playing in Sacramento the night before. Ultimately, I believe this game will come down to the fact that the Mavs will likely be playing for their playoff lives in an attempt to get Dirk Nowitzki back into the postseason during the twilight of his career.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (9-6) (31-44 overall)

Game 16: Denver @ Memphis, 6:00 pm, Wednesday, March 30

The Nuggets get their last crack at the Grizzlies in their third game in four nights. It will be interesting to see where the Grizzlies stand in the playoff picture at this point in the season as the loss of Marc Gasol for the season makes things murky for them the rest of the way. Memphis has come away with wins in each of the three previous games against the Nuggets this season, although all three were with margins of victory in single-digits. The Nuggets will be tired, but they catch the Grizzlies in the middle of home games against the Spurs and Raptors, so there is definite trap-game potential. It’s hard to picture a young, tired Nuggets squad overcoming another team that could be fighting for their playoff lives at this point, so the slide continues.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (9-7) (31-45 overall)

Game 17: Denver @ New Orleans, 6:00 pm, Thursday, March 31

The Nuggets will finish off their brutal stretch of four games in five nights against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans in New Orleans to close out March. There’s no doubt that the Pelicans are the most disappointing team in the NBA this season as they were expected to be a second-tier contender in the West and many thought Davis would launch his name into the MVP debate this year.

Despite their terrible play early on, they’ve been frisky of late, managing to match the Nuggets’ 23 wins entering the month. Normally I would chalk up the loss right away at the end of a 4-in-5 stretch, but the Pelicans take on the Spurs in San Antonio the night before and will be closing out their own stretch of three games in four nights, so look for the Nuggets to get back on track and pick up their 10th win of the month. This win also gets the Nuggets past CBS Sports’ Jamers Herbert’s projection for the team on the year.

Prediction: Nuggets win (10-7) (32-45 overall)

Game 18: Denver vs. Sacramento, 7:00 pm, Saturday, April 2

The Nuggets will look to avoid a series sweep at the hands of DeMarcus Cousins and former head coach George Karl as they enter the final few games of the year. Boogie absolutely dominated the Nuggets in their first two matchups notching 37 points and 20 rebounds in the first, then pouring in 39 points in the next, just a few nights later. There’s no doubt that the Nuggets young big men have this game circled on their calendars and that they will be looking to prove themselves against the NBA’s best center. It also helps that the Kings will be flying into Denver having hosted the Heat in a late game the night before.

Prediction: Nuggets win (11-7) (33-45 overall)

Game 19: Denver vs. Oklahoma City, 7:00 pm, Tuesday, April 5

The Thunder are just a terrible matchup for the Nuggets and despite having two days off both before and after this game, I don’t think anything will help them enough to pick up another win. Oklahoma City will finish of the four game season sweep as they prepare themselves to make a run in the playoffs.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (11-8) (33-46 overall)

Game 20: Denver vs. San Antonio, 7:00 pm, Friday, April 8

It’s always hard to get a read on the Spurs towards the end of the season thanks to coach Gregg Popovich’s gamesmanship. The Spurs take on the Warriors in one the last marquee matchups of the regular season the night before at Golden State, but who knows if any of the Spurs regulars will even suit up for that one? It was a regular strategy for Pop to rest one, two or even all three of his stars against the Carmelo Anthony Nuggets back when it looked like they’d be matching up soon in the playoffs.

It lulled the opponent into a false sense of confidence getting a win over a team that wasn’t really putting it all out on the floor. It remains to be seen if that tactic will be used once again against the Warriors (meaning the regulars would be rested and available in Denver), but regardless, the Spurs are too well coached to expect the Nuggets to be able to pick up a win regardless of who is playing.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (11-9) (33-47 overall)

Game 21: Denver vs. Utah, 3:00 pm, Sunday, April 10

The Nuggets can go a long way towards determining how many draft picks they have in this year’s draft over these last two games. With the Trailblazers and the Jazz fighting it out with the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks for the last three playoff spots, there could be a lot of changes in the potential picks. The Nuggets hold the rights to both the Blazers and Rockets picks, but only if they make the playoffs, so getting a win over the Jazz could help ensure that those picks are headed the Nuggets way in June.

The Jazz have had the Nuggets number this season, picking up wins in each of their earlier matchups, but as a young team with a lot on the line and a huge matchup looming against the Mavericks the next night, look for Denver to catch Utah sleeping and pick up a win that helps lock up an extra pick on draft night. This win also puts the team a notch above yet another CBS Sports’ expert’s projection (Ananth Pandian), but the 40 projected by Matt Moore is unfortunately out of reach.

Prediction: Nuggets win (12-9) (34-47 overall)

Game 22: Denver @ Portland, 8:30 pm, Wednesday, April 13

The Trailblazers have been the surprise of the year in the NBA and scorched the opposition in February to the tune of a 9-2 record. While I expect Portland to pick up this win at home to close out the regular season and send them into the playoffs, they provide hope for this young Denver squad that success may be just around the corner. Much of turnaround for the Blazers can be attributed to C.J. McCollum’s leap into NBA stardom and any number of Denver’s promising young players may be the guy to make that leap next season.

My money is on Gary Harris or Nikola Jokic (how about both?!) but I could just as easily see Emmanuel Mudiay, Jusuf Nurkic or Will Barton being the guy that launches the Nuggets back into the playoffs next year. It may be a loss on the schedule, but seeing Portland celebrate in their final game at home before the start of the playoffs will also be a glimpse into the potential future of this Nuggets team.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (12-10) (34-48 overall)

Final Prediction for March/April: 12 wins, 10 losses (34-48 Overall)

Previous Predictions and Actual Results

Oct/November: Predicted (9 – 9), Actual (6 – 12)
December: Predicted (7 – 8), Actual (6 – 9)
January: Predicted (8 – 7), Actual (6 – 9)
February: Predicted (6 – 6), Actual (5 – 7)