Denver's offense is stuck in first gear

After racking up at least 15 turnovers in each of their first three regular-season games, it appears that giveaways will be the Nuggets’ biggest sticking point as the season progresses through the opening third of the year. That wouldn’t be the biggest surprise, considering Denver is starting a 20-year-old at point guard and backing him up with a third-year pro who’s struggled with turnovers throughout his career.

But surprisingly, the Nuggets’ offense is showing cause for concern. It seems odd because, coming into the year, it was pretty much assumed Denver would pick up right where they left off last season on that end of the floor. Sure there would be some growing pains when incorporating a four-time All-Star who needs his touches like Paul Millsap, and even though Denver said ciao to Danilo Gallinari, Jokic’s presence combined with a returning rotation with rookies expected to make somewhat of a sophomore leap, the Nuggets’ offense was supposed to be fine.

“I don’t think scoring will be an issue…I’m not really concerned about the offense,” coach Michael Malone said back at Media Day.

But through four games, the Nuggets are just the 23rd best offense in the league. They’ve only breached the 100-point barrier in one game and are averaging just 98.3 points per 100 possessions, 15 points lower than they did post-Dec. 15 last year. Millsap and Nikola Jokic have been a self-described “work in progress” meshing together in Denver’s frontcourt and in the 89 minutes they’ve spent on the floor together, they’re scoring just 95.4 points per 100. Compare that efficiency to the 108.5 points per 100 possessions Kenneth Faried and Jokic have tallied over the 26 minutes they’ve played with one another.

Denver’s pace is also roughly two-and-a-half possessions slower per 48 minutes than it was at the height of Jokic’s reign last year. That seems minuscule on paper, but is definitely noticeable to the eye test. The Nuggets had zero fastbreak points in the first half against Charlotte — a far cry from the 14.2 points they averaged on the break a year ago.

Of course, we’re dealing with a small sample size of just four games and it’s too early for blanket statements and certainties. Remember, the Nuggets were the 19th best offense in the league from the start of last season through Dec. 12 before they kicked things into gear and let the reigns loose on Jokic.

Looking back, Malone shouldn’t have been concerned. A high IQ, unselfish big like Millsap, should fit in with Denver’s philosophy on offense well. And quite frankly, the Nuggets have too much talent on offense to be this bad for that much longer. Jamal Murray, who’s shot looks just about as good as anybody’s in warmups, has struggled with his jumper. The 20-year-old is converting on just 14-47 (29.8 percent) of his field goal attempts and has missed 14 -straight threes. The reliable Gary Harris has been, well, reliable. Wilson Chandler, who’s stepped up his defense so far this season is mired in a slump himself and is shooting just 11-33 (33.3 percent) from the field this year.

Individually, Millsap and Jokic have been solid. The latter rebounded from a scoreless showing against the Kings in Denver’s home opener with a 29-point outing versus Marcin Gortat and the Wizards and an 18-point, 11-rebound line against Dwight Howard on Wednesday. On the season, Millsap is averaging 15.5 points per game on 48 percent shooting from the field and 31 percent from three — right along the averages which he shot last year. The two together just haven’t quite clicked yet.

Through four games when Millsap and Jokic share the floor Denver is collectively a -9. When just Millsap is on the floor they’re a -20, and it’s just Jokic without Millsap, the Nuggets are a +1.

The Nuggets’ offense was going to look different this year with Millsap, but not this different. Most of the joy and flow that seeped out of nearly every halfcourt possession during Denver’s second-half surge last season isn’t there. Watch this two-possession sequence from last night.

Through four games, Denver isn’t shooting the ball well either. They’re converting just 44.4 percent of their attempts — a bottom-10 percentage, but are still shooting the three well at 35.1 percent — the 13th-best mark in the league. The good news is that the Nuggets flat-out missed pretty much all of their open shots against the Hornets. They shot 13-50 (26 percent) on uncontested field goals, per NBA.com. Murray was 3-12, Chandler was 2-7. That should correct itself with time.

“It’s really simple, make shots,” Malone said, about what was missing from the offense after the loss.

But another trend in Denver’s offense to take note of: where the Nuggets are attempting their shots.

This table from CleaningTheGlass.com illustrates how Denver has generated its offense, year over year. Last season, the Nuggets got most of their scoring from above-the-break threes or around the rim. This year, Denver has been pounding the mid-range and not getting a ton of points from the restricted area. The red and blue numbers represent league rank.

Denver’s spacing has been messy too especially in their lineups featuring two traditional bigs and could be a reason why they’re settling for so many mid-range shots. From the earlier video, here’s what Harris is seeing when he comes off that Millsap screen. Four Charlotte defenders walling off the paint.The Nuggets are also incorporating three new starters — Murray, Chandler, and Millsap — into their first five. Building cohesion takes time although last season when Harris and Jokic entered the starting lineup on Dec. 15, there wasn’t this adjustment period.

Denver needs to get their offense figured out in short order. They play in Atlanta Friday, in Brooklyn on Sunday and at Madison Square against the Knicks on Monday. That’s three Eastern Conference teams expected to finish near the bottom of the league. But Denver has notoriously struggled on the road and teams like the Nets have been pesky to start the year.

“We’re not scoring over 100 points like we were last year,” Malone said after the loss in Charlotte. “We have to find ways to play with more pace more energy and get out and run more.”