How turnovers are hijacking Denver's offense

“You cannot throw the ball all over the place, waste possessions, and expect to win.”

Denver Nuggets’ head coach Michael Malone has uttered this phrase, or something very similar to it, more times than can be counted over the course of Denver’s first three regular-season games. Now, as Malone’s prophecy has foretold, Denver is sitting with one victory in three tries to start the season largely because of their lackadaisical approach to valuing the ball.

If Denver had taken better care of the ball over their first three games, they could be undefeated.

“We lost in Utah because of turnovers. We lost tonight (against Washington) because of turnovers,” Malone explained earlier this week. “We are 1-2 because of turnovers.”

The Nuggets have 61 total turnovers on the year, good for 20.3 turnovers per game, which is the worst mark in the league over the early part of the new NBA season. Denver is also, by far, the worst in the league in turnover percentage and 20.8 percent of the Nuggets offensive possessions so far this year have ended in a turnover — a full 2.2 percent worse than the Utah Jazz who rank 29th.

For Denver to maximize its production, they need to find a way to stop bleeding possessions at such an alarming rate. While it sounds like it is much easier said than done, there are a few ways that Denver can improve their turnover woes.

28 of Denver’s 61 turnovers came in just three quarters; the fourth quarter in Utah on opening night and in the second and third quarters against the Wizards. In those three quarters, Denver gave their opponent 36 points on 28 turnovers and was outscored by 16 points in total. If the Nuggets can stop their turnover issues from snowballing, it would go a long way towards limiting the self-inflicted damage that they have caused themselves so far this season.

In those three quarters, when Denver struggled to hold onto the ball, there was an unbelievable amount of avoidable and careless turnovers, which would be the easiest kind of turnovers to cut out of the equation.

One of the worst of these turnovers was committed by Jamal Murray against the Wizards. He tried to get too fancy after Denver had already committed five turnovers in the first four minutes of the third frame and eventually threw the ball behind his back straight into the first row of fans at Pepsi Center.

“I think we are trying to do too much, like careless passes. We had five turnovers (against Washington) and Jamal Murray tried a behind the back, flip pass,” Malone said. “We have to be more disciplined than that.”

These kinds of turnovers have taken place far too often. In the same game against the Wizards, this time in the fourth quarter, Emmanuel Mudiay drives into the lane without a plan with the Nuggets trailing by five points and five minutes remaining in the game. The Nuggets had been fighting back all quarter and were looking like they may be able to steal some momentum, but Mudiay managed to lose his handle on the ball as he was trying to pass it resulting in yet another careless turnover.

This play is all on Mudiay. If you watch the rest of his teammates, they are already in their spots. Harris is stationary on the wing as Mudiay’s outlet while Millsap gets as far into the corner as possible to give Mudiay more room to reset the offense on the wing if he wanted. For Mudiay to jump into the air for no reason and lose the ball was as unnecessary as it was foolish.

It was not just the Wizards game either. Even in the win over the Sacramento Kings, Denver had atrocious possessions like the one above.

Look at how Will Barton recklessly drives into two defenders even though he could have just slowed down and set up the Nuggets’ offense to run a set play. Instead of playing it smart, Barton barrels into two defenders and loses the ball. Barton forcing the issue without having numbers in transition was a bad decision and gave the Kings an easy steal as well as a free possession.

Denver needs to figure out how to eliminate reckless turnovers as fast as possible if they hope to get back to being the dominant offense they were for the majority of last season. If they don’t, it could be a much tougher path to the playoffs then originally thought.

Secondly, there are three new faces to integrate into the Nuggets starting lineup. It’s a process to get Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, and Murray comfortable playing together and the lack of cohesion has bled through the rest of the roster. The lack of chemistry is a large reason as to why the Nuggets continue to turn the ball over so frequently.

Look below at how Millsap just does not know where Barton is going to be. Millsap tries to pass the ball to a spot on the court as opposed to where Barton is and due to the lack of communication and understanding, Millsap throws the ball away leading to a turnover.

Millsap relies heavily on his basketball IQ and court awareness and without a level of comfort with his teammates it drastically diminishes his playmaking ability.

It isn’t just Millsap either. Nikola Jokic is having his troubles getting comfortable within the offense and with his teammates. Look at how he expects Murray to bounce out to the wing for an open three-pointer but Murray instead tries to clear out to give Millsap more space to operate in the post.

Millsap was already dropping into the paint trying to open up more room for Murray as Jokic prepares to set him up but Murray fails to understand the thought process. Instead of stepping into the open spot on the floor for an open three, Murray tried to rotate to the other side of the court as Jokic drops a pass to where Murray should have been.

These turnovers will hopefully dissipate over time. The more that the Nuggets roster plays together, the more comfortable they will become which should lead to fewer turnovers.

The one type of turnover that Denver desperately needs to cut down on is live-ball turnovers, which are turnovers that lead directly to the opponent getting a transition opportunity.

Look at how quickly one bad decision by Mudiay results in two points for Tim Frazier.

The fact that Mudiay somehow did not see Frazier right in front of him is one thing but the larger issue is that his mistake allowed the Wizards to not only steal a possession but also get an opportunity to run out in transition, which is the most efficient way to score in basketball.

The same lesson rings true below where Jokic makes a bad decision to try and lob a pass to Millsap, who is too far under the rim to be able to receive the pass. Once Millsap fails to catch the pass cleanly, John Wall is already off to the races.

Wall fails to convert the layup on the other end but he draws a foul from Jokic.

Allowing teams to get out in transition can turn a good defensive effort into a bad defensive game. Look how Wall is looking for the pass from Harris to Jokic. Teams are keying in on the Nuggets pass-happy offensive philosophy and it is leading to opponents jumping into passing lanes to gobble up steals as Wall does below.

If Denver can limit their careless turnovers, continue to build their chemistry and cohesion and find a way to cut back on live-ball turnovers, it would entirely change their dynamic on offense. As of right now, the offense still looks clunky and it seems that a lot of that has to do with the turnover woes that continue to haunt the Nuggets.

If Denver wants to be a playoff team this year, they will need to conquer the turnover plague that has doomed them through three games and that starts against the Hornets Wednesday night. Malone has made that very clear to his team.

“I just told them that we are getting ready for a four-game east coast trip and we cannot bring those turnovers with us,” he said.