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ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Committing to the run in the National Football League in 2017 is tough. Committing to the run when it’s not working is almost impossible.
Take the Dallas Cowboys for example. Last week, against the Broncos, Dallas—a team that ran the ball a league-high 48.7 percent of the time in 2016—only ran it 14 times against 50 throws in the game. Why? Because the Denver Broncos made a point of stopping it.
“Woah!” Buffalo Bills Star running back LeSean McCoy exclaimed when asked about the Denver run defense.
On all nine of Ezekiel Elliot’s rushing attempts—which went for a total of eight yards—the Broncos had an extra defender in the box, meaning they had more defenders than the Cowboys could block. Because of this, the Cowboys used conventional wisdom and turned to the pass. Attempting to take advantage of 1-on-1 opportunities on the outside.
Though the Cowboys failed in the pass as well, there comes a time when an offense has to change their gameplan because the defense simply has the answers. Sometimes you just have to bail on the run.
This week, the Denver Broncos take on a Buffalo Bills squad that sticks to the run about as well as anybody in the league. Last season, the Bills ran the ball 30.8 times per game, tied with the Cowboys for most in the NFL. This year, under a new coaching staff, they’re running it even more (32.5 per game).
With a very similar team on the other side, it wouldn’t come as a surprise for the Broncos to put out a very similar gameplan—stack the box. If that’s the case, McCoy has a very simple plan to counter it.
“Stay true to our keys, our identity. If we get down in the game, just stick with it,” he explained on a conference call with Denver media. “The Cowboys kind of went to the passing game too early. They stopped them a couple times in the running game, and they got down in points. The Broncos, man, they’re a tough group, they really are. I think you just have to keep being consistent, running your plays and you have to keep true to your identity. You can’t change because of how the game is going. They’ll make plays; they’re a good defense. They’re gonna make plays, you just have to keep at it.”
If the Broncos were to go plus-one in the box again, the Bills offensive line would have to win matchups that the All-Pro-littered line of Cowboys could not. Matchups that the Buffalo line also did not win against the Carolina Panthers.
McCoy, a top-six rusher in the NFL three out of the last four years, had just 12 carries for nine yards against Carolina in Week 2.
“I just didn’t play well. I didn’t make any plays. Plays that I usually make, I didn’t make,” he explained. “They did well; we just played poorly. Particularly myself, I played poorly.”
Why did he play so poorly?
“I don’t want to give too many tips,” he said. “I just didn’t play well, simple as that.”
While LeSean may not want to give away the secrets, here’s one reason the ground game fell flat—and it has nothing to do with him not playing well—the Bills don’t even have the illusion of a passing game. Over the first two games of the season, Buffalo has averaged 162.5 yards per game in the air, good enough for 27th in the league. In Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers, a game in which they only scored three points, quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw for just 125 yards on 25 attempts.
The Bills traded away their best receiver in Sammy Watkins in the offseason, McCoy actually leads the team in receptions by a wide margin, none of the receivers have gone over 100 yards yet and second-round pick Zay Jones only has three catches. It’s a mess.
Don’t be surprised if the Broncos stack the box once again, forcing the Bills to really think about whether or not they can stick with the run.