If you haven’t heard about Shohei Otani yet, you’ve missed out. The aptly dubbed “Japanese Babe Ruth” has been clocked at 102 mph with his fastball and hits home runs measured near 500 feet.
The 23-year-old right-handed-throwing and left-handed-hitting star is unprecedented in so many ways.
When’s the last time you saw an all-star hitter who was also an all-star pitcher?
Exactly.
But the way in which he might be most unprecedented is that, according to almost everything in the public sphere of knowledge, he does not care about money. In a sport with no salary cap, Otani’s would-be signing into Major League Baseball is one that would be heavily capped.
A player like Otani, born in Jacksonville rather than Japan would be a layup to make $200 million on the open market. But brand new, frugal MLB rules enacted in baseball’s latest collective barging agreement seem designed to keep Otani from earning his due. If Otani came over this offseason, which has only been reported that his Nippon Professional Baseball league team—the Ham Fighters—may allow, there are many hurdles the two-way star would need to clear including leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table.
Step 1: MLB & NPB agree on new posting system
The current agreement caps the posting fee paid to the Japanese club at $20 million. Instead of blind bidding, which, in the past, handcuffed the player to the major league team that bid the most, it’s now a flat fee.
Under the older posting system, the Rangers bid $51.7 million to win the rights to negotiate a contract with Yu Darvish. That $51.7 million was handed straight to the Japanese team and the Rangers finished by inking Darvish a six-year, $60 million deal with the Rangers, meaning Texas’ total price tag was more than $110 million.
$20 million to negotiate is a steal for MLB, one NPB is likely to correct. And this is only for the posting fee.
Step 2: MLB’s new CBA and giving up millions
Dave Cameron wrote this on Fangraphs on Wednesday:
Because last year’s CBA raised the age of international prospects covered by the bonus-pool system to 25, Otani isn’t eligible for true unrestricted free agency for two more years. Rather than wait that long — and as a pitcher, two more years of good health is no guarantee — Otani will reportedly be posted this winter and then sign under the same rules by which 16-year-olds are bound. He’ll receive a signing bonus of some size (up to about $10 million) depending on which club he ultimately joins and then sign a standard uniform player contract that binds him to the arbitration system until he accrues six years of service time.
That means that, as a rookie next year, Otani will be scheduled to make something like $545,000, the league minimum for 2018. And he won’t be in line for a real market-rate salary until after the 2023 season. If Otani stayed in Japan for two more years and stayed healthy, he’d be able to land the monster free-agent deal four years sooner. There’s no way around it: coming over this winter will cost Otani a lot of money.
In summary, before the new CBA, the cutoff age was 23 with five seasons of professional baseball. That would’ve let Otani free to sign a major-league contract with no limit, and no cap for the team in anyway. Otani can now not be unlimited until he turns 25 until the summer of 2019.
According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo, Otani really does not care about the money, at least up front. Meaning it’s likely he could sign this offseason and give up an unthinkable load of cash.
Step 3: Getting around MLB’s CBA
Since the news rules were enacted, the biggest question has been how the clubs get around the rules. The short of it is they won’t. The long of it is much more interesting.
Passan gets to this:
Officials at MLB insist any effort to subvert the spirit of the rule will not be allowed. Would the league, for example, attempt to cancel a nine-figure contract extension for Otani if he stars in his first season? One official said precedent will matter, and any contract that doesn’t have a forebear will be considered a violation. Might a team attempt to negotiate an under-the-table deal to make whole Otani as well as the Fighters? It could, though MLB believes the possibility of being caught and sanctioned will scare teams straight.
The long of it is that no team can promise Otani anything aside for just over $10.1 million total in signing bonuses and a contact of a league minimum of around $550,000. And there are just the eight teams that aren’t being penalized for prior overages and have traded for another 75 percent—the maximum allowed—of their allotment of intentional signing money. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are two of these eight teams. On the other side, there are 11 teams, including many with interest in Otani, that face a $300,000 ceiling. Meaning instead of $200 million Otani might sign for $300,000.
For year one, the money would be marginal compared to what Otani deserves, but he could be signed long-term after one season by the team who signs him this offseason. The issue here is precedent.
With the MLB’s service time rules, even Mike Trout was held to a $144.5 million, six-year contract, a deal he signed after two years in the majors and didn’t kick in until after his third season. The Indians reportedly offered Francisco Lindor more than $100 million to sign a long-term deal after just one season. With Otani being both a pitcher and a hitter, six or seven years in the $100 million to $150 million seems like it would fit precedent. Unfortunately for Otani, this is still not enough. Now, there are some more intricacies that could make this a safer deal with more potential to get Otani paid, but these are the basics.
Why the Rockies should sign Otani
Otani, the hitter, plays corner outfield and would possibly DH in the majors if playing in the AL. If you’re asking how this works, here’s how. On days he pitches he just pitches so that the Ham Fighters don’t have to forfeit their DH, he takes the day before his start off and he DHs or plays corner outfield every other day. It is key to note that in Japan, the starters pitch every sixth day.
Otani’s forkball from his start this past week
He’s a frontline starter in Japan—that has typically translated to America—and he’s a top-five hitter in his league. He grew up idolizing Hideki Matsui and Yu Darvish, so let us compare.
Otani joined the Ham Fighters rotation in 2014. He’s pitched 456 innings and in that time has compiled a 2.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 30.4 strikeout rate, 8.2 percent walk rate, and 0.36 HR/9.
In Darvish’s 558 innings from age 19-21—the same time frame—he posted a 2.13 and a 0.925 WHIP. Both just slightly better than Otani.
In Matsui’s 10 year career in Japan, which started when he was 19, he slashed .304/.418/.532 with 332 homers and 889 RBI.
In Otani’s five seasons he’s slashed .286/.359/.505 with 47 homers and 163 RBI. He’s also made great improvements over the past two seasons.
Basically, it’s fair to compare Otani to Darvish as a pitcher and Matsui as a hitter. To put this in perspective, last year he was worth 5.8 wins above replacement as a pitcher in and 4.6 as a hitter, essentially combining Noah Syndergaard and Paul Goldschmidt into a single star player.
It’s pretty obvious why the Rockies and 29 other MLB teams would want him. In fact, at least half of the clubs in MLB were at Otani’s last start.
The good news for the Rockies is they wouldn’t really have to outbid anyone since everyone is held to the same cap. More good news for the Rockies is he would come below market price which is huge for a team with a middle-of-the-line payroll.
He has one of the highest home run rates in the NPB, and the Rockies would be moving him over to the highest altitude field on the majors. There are many reasons to like this for Colorado, including a sheer curiosity for a forkball at altitude. But in all seriousness, the ability to have a frontline starter under market value, who also possesses a bat worthy of major league time is something every single team in the majors should go after.
Why the Rockies won’t sign Otani
Otani has had injury issues this season. He’s been held to just 10 innings, and there have been some concerns about fatigue. Still, three different MLB GMs were at his most recent start.
There is understandably a lot of competition to sign what is the best pitcher in the world not in MLB. However, once again, the playing field is pretty much even in terms of dollars.
The Rockies are at a disadvantage because they do not have a designated NPB scout, let alone an Asian one. In fact, there is no evidence that they’ve scouted or even looked at Otani, but it’s quite possible that they have. It’s pretty unprecedented for the Rockies to even be in on the far east market with the last signing being Chin-hui Tsao in 1999.
Another big factor for Otani that puts the Rockies at a disadvantage is fatigue. Everyone knows fatigue has a larger effect at altitude. For a player who would be pitching every fifth day and possibly playing the field—or least having the ambition to—two to three times a week as well, this could have an extreme impact on Otani’s decision and how valuable he would be for Colorado.
Two of the biggest strengths in the Rockies organization are left-handed hitting outfielders and right-handed pitchers. Otani is, of course, both. Now, a player with the talent and with the market surplus value of Otani obviously would surpass what the Rockies already have, but there is no inherent need for Otani.
Whoever wins the Otani bidding, whenever it happens—if he’s posted now or after he turns 25—will hit the jackpot. Obviously, the sooner Otani is posted, the better for baseball in America. But the show he will provide on the mound will be just as viewed as the circus that will be the Otani sweepstakes. The sweepstakes for his services has just begun, and it will unquestionably be the top story in baseball when Otani is posted.
