With the NFL’s 2017 season officially beginning this week, it’s time to size up who’s improved and who’s regressed this offseason.
The wild west has seen everything from coaching changes, big-contract signings, crazy general manager firings and all-time great players leaving for division rivals. There’s never a dull moment in the NFL, and that’s certainly been the case this offseason for the AFC West.
We graded the draft already, but now it’s time to grade the entire body of work from each franchise.
Los Angeles Chargers: B
A new coaching staff for the Bolts really sets the tone for a team that’s often showed the upside to be much better than their record. Offensively, it wouldn’t be the worst thing if they can become more like Anthony Lynn’s Buffalo Bills. They certainly have the running back, and Philip Rivers could be devastating with a great run game by his side. For that all to work, the offensive line will need to step up, which is why the Chargers made upgrading the unit priority one, two, and three this offseason.
They’re gambling big on Russell Okung. A gamble that’ll only pay off if he can stay healthy and play at an average level as a blindside protector. The additions of Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney – two of the drafts top guards – could be big, but ultimately it’ll all come down to Okung next year for things to go according to plan. It’s worth noting Lamp has the talent to play as a tackle and could be an interesting alternative if Okung does get hurt.
Defensively, new coordinator Gus Bradley will have lots of talent to work with. Particularly in the front seven. Joey Bosa’s second year could be truly special, but the staff will have to find the right way to use him in the new scheme. The rest of the unit has tons of talent, and the secondary could make a huge jump if star cornerback Jason Verrett returns to his old form on the field. There’s lots of potential for the young group, getting them to achieve it will be the key.
Most impactful offseason move:
Upgrading the offensive line was crucial. Okung is obviously a risky signing considering 2016 was his first season in the NFL starting all 16 games, and he also allowed four sacks and had six holding calls. The rookies are phenomenal talents that could be big tone setters for the Chargers.
Like Okung, Feeney, too, has some injury history concerns, so they’ve taken some risks, how the offensive line plays will be big for the Bolts in their first season in the City of Angels.
Move that the offseason will be defined by:
Lynn’s hire as the new head coach is a big one, and while staying patient with Mike McCoy was no longer an option, it’s always hard to change things right as the team’s on the cusp. Lynn will also have to navigate a partnership with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt who was kept on board.
Both offense and defense are arguably the most talent-loaded units in the entire division, but Lynn is also thrown into an extremely competitive AFC West while having to navigate the complications of a franchise moving.
He’s got the talent to succeed on the field and a veteran support staff around him, but it’s far from an easy situation to take on as a first-time head coach.
Kansas City Chiefs: D
How have the Chiefs gotten better this offseason? It’s a legitimate question to ask. A team that’s been able to sustain recent success took some significant losses and made major gambles this offseason. They then, surprisingly, fired the general manager, John Dorsey, who’d orchestrated those same risky moves that’ll be defining for the franchise in the next few seasons.
The Chiefs retain stability in their coaching staff, more so than any other team in the division – as everyone else will be changing at least one coordinator – they also have some young players looking to make a significant jump and added some intriguing prospects on the offensive side.
Tyreek Hill’s development will be essential for KC’s offense to take the next step. If tight end Travis Kelcee can stay healthy and the new running back duo of Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt can blossom, the offense could be fairly dynamic.
The defensive group is looking older and a lot of the season will depend on the growth of another second-year player in defensive lineman Chris Jones. If Jones develops into the force he flashed the potential to become his rookie season; the Chiefs will be just fine. But depth and talent on the front line is a question mark as is the interior linebacking core.
Most impactful offseason move:
Re-signing Eric Berry and guaranteeing him $57 million is meaningful in the immediate and long term future. For one, giving Berry that money does tie KC’s cap up a bit and forced them to let go of Dontari Poe, who settled for a modest contract elsewhere. It also means committing a serious chunk of change to a veteran player with a major health scare just a year ago.
On the field, Berry is great. A dynamic safety, who’s an intimidator with great instincts. He’s also a leader and crucial cog in the defense, so they didn’t have much choice, but that contract is an important commitment.
Move that the offseason will be defined by:
Trading up and drafting Patrick Mahomes III, while sacrificing a future first round pick, wins this category by a mile. The trade up and selection becomes that much more defining now that the Chiefs have fired the GM who made that selection.
Mahomes himself could be the next Derek Carr, but he’ll also have a long way to go before he’s ready to contribute. That’s a risky proposition when you give up a future first rounder and are likely looking to trade Alex Smith to re-coup some assets next offseason or two years from now. Mahomes is on the clock now and whether it’s fair or not this move will be franchise altering one way or another.
Oakland Raiders: B-
The Raiders are the team that’s been the least active in the offseason with few major roster or coaching changes out west. That stability can be a good thing as they’ve built a promising young team that really blossomed in 2016.
Oakland made two big moves; drafting Gareon Conley in the first round despite rape allegations that are still on going, and getting Marshawn Lynch. Lynch’s impact could be significant if he returns to full form – a big if after a long period of inactivity. While Conley’s impact defensively could also be massive if he turns out to be not guilty, given his versatility and upside.
However, there were some missed opportunities in adding to need areas that didn’t really get addressed. Particularly on defense, where they’re still a group that needs developing in lots of areas, with inside linebacker remaining a major question mark.
Offensively, they’ve lost some depth to a veteran line group that really stood out in 2016 but isn’t getting any younger and made an in-house change at offensive coordinator.
Continuity is good, but the Raiders are also putting all their cards in on this core group of players and coaches. The wins in 2016 would suggest that’s a smart move, while the slim margin of victory and several close wins that could have easily been losses make you think there’s a bit more risk there.
Considering what their competition did, Oakland drafted well and didn’t lose a step to anyone while no one got noticeably better. They seem to be coming into the season as the favorites, but they could also regress some, a factor that’s being overlooked right now.
Most impactful offseason move:
Oakland didn’t just add Lynch to their backfield this offseason they also lost Latavius Murray who is four years younger than Lynch and was beginning to come into his own the last two seasons.
It’s reasonable to think that Murray and a 31-year-old Lynch might be similarly productive with the former Raider having a major age advantage. While Lynch could be a slight upgrade in the short term, he’s only a temporary solution, and as they have to pay their talented young players, the Raiders will be faced with several more tough decisions like this in the future.
Move that the offseason will be defined by:
Derek Carr’s huge new contract is an obvious franchise-altering commitment. It’s not a bad contract, either, especially because it’s front loaded, allowing for a Khalil Mack signing in 2018 to be a bit easier to pull off.
There wasn’t an alternative to not signing Carr with how good he’s played so far, but he’s also a $125 million man with $70 guaranteed. Oakland is all in, and now moves like letting go of young players such as Murray for cheaper veterans like Lynch won’t be so easy – after all, there’s only one favorite son of Oakland.
Denver Broncos: B
Only 17 months removed from a Super Bowl title and the Broncos are the team that underwent the biggest makeover this offseason. Despite still having a historically great defense basically intact, Denver’s overall roster entered the 2017 season needing lots of work.
The makeover became even more drastic with Gary Kubiak stepping down and Wade Phillips taking his talents to Southern California. Getting McCoy and Bill Musgrave were big wins for the Broncos, and Vance Joseph was a coveted candidate so there should be optimism there.
After struggling to run the ball, protect the passer, and even stop the run, the trenches became the biggest priority in the offseason with some departures on both sides and lots of additions through free agency and the draft.
Ronald Leary is the biggest acquisition, coming from the NFL’s best offensive line in the middle of his prime at 28. A grinding-type guard, Leary is the cover boy for the style of tone-setter that the Broncos tried to add up front. First-round pick Garett Bolles is another one, as is former boxer Menelik Watson who was brought on from the Raiders.
The names aren’t as “flashy” on the defensive side, but Denver added gap stuffers who add depth to a rotation that needs fresh legs to make a post-season push. What’s been exciting has been the addition of several intriguing playmakers on offense from Jamaal Charles to a group of four rookies that are particularly intriguing.
There are still lots of questions going into the offseason with all the changes that occurred and the looming uncertainty under-center, but there have been some clear upgrades made to the roster in big areas of need. There’s also reason to be optimistic that switching things up on the sidelines might not turn out to be the worst thing, considering the bright minds Denver was able to lure. Lots of the season’s success will hinge on those bright minds pushing the right buttons and making the right decisions as this team was right in the hunt last season and promises to be just as much now.
Most impactful offseason move:
The coaching hire is by far the most impactful move of all, as the Broncos were the hot team in this cycle and they basically had their choice. They picked Joseph, who was essential in getting the rest of the staff together, and now the pressure is on for everyone.
President of football operations/general manager John Elway has been part of two coaching hires prior to Joseph; He picked John Fox as the man to rebuild the franchise and was spot on, and then hired his trusted friend Kubiak to get the team over the top and again succeeded.
Joseph is the toughest hire yet, as he’ll be asked to re-invigorate the organization, bringing in a new era of Bronco football while having to keep the standards as high as ever. Not an easy assignment for a first-time head coach.
Move that the offseason will be defined by:
We haven’t really talked about it much in this piece, but there’s no more defining move than what’s about to occur in training camp, the quarterback decision. A whole lot hinges on who Joseph picks and how McCoy and Musgrave get him coached up and ready to succeed.
It was a much less pressure-filled decision last offseason as Paxton Lynch was still just a raw rookie and Trevor Siemian looked like a young arm worth giving some shine. But after this year it’ll be decision time for both guys and on the position in general as Elway and the Broncos aren’t going to sit on their hands and wait for a kid to develop. This is a big offseason for the franchise and for their young arms.
