When Assembling a 25-Man Roster, Skill Doesn’t Always Win Out

 

As Spring Training winds down, the baseball fan’s sense of nostalgia does not.

With each passing day, we become that much closer to the regular season. On every home run, we imagine what it would look like in a legitimate MLB ballpark and the ensuing reaction by fans that could never be found in Arizona or Florida during the month of March. The latest infield error by some guy ticketed for AA only increases our yearning for the consistently high standard only Major Leaguers seem to achieve. A young fireballer makes a hitter look silly, leading an entire fan base to fantasize about what happens if he finally puts it all together in 2017.

Most of all, however, baseball fans are running through all the possible rosters and lineups for Opening Day. We here at BSN are no different. Jake Shapiro provided his projected Rockies 25-man on Thursday. In prefacing his picks, Shap touched up on a reality of this 2017 squad that may not be familiar to Rockie faithful:

“This year they have oodles of capable players, maybe too many to even fit their 40-man let alone their 25-man.”

Depth is an important component to a team many feel is poised to make a run at the franchise’s first playoff birth since 2009, despite the injury bug infesting the locker room at Salt River Fields. In the short term, depth allows for a variety of options to cover for these wounded warriors.

But the reality of depth is that, no matter what combination of depth pieces the Major League ballclub decides to head North with, skill is likely not going to be the ultimate deciding factor. While skill may be the basis for comparing players, there are too many other factors at play.

In the long-term, selecting someone that can provide slightly better than replacement-level production over someone that provides precisely replacement-level production is negligible. This is especially true when faced with numerous premium talents set to return from injury in April and May.

With that in mind, I would like to provide the proper context of circumstance for the remaining position battles in camp. All player information is compiled from Cot’s Baseball Contracts and RockiesRoster.com,  the latter of which I have a feeling is going to become a favorite destination of mine in pursuit of quality Rockies coverage.

 

Starting Pitchers (2 spots available)

German Marquez

Age: 22

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 0.027

Options Remaining: 2

 

Jeff Hoffman

Age: 24

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 0.044

Options Remaining: 3

 

Kyle Freeland

Age: 23

40-man: No

Service Time: None

Options Remaining: 3

 

Antonio Senzatela

Age: 22

40-man: Yes

Service Time: None

Options Remaining: 2

 

Just hours after Shap posted his projections, they had been proven to be flawed, as Jeff Hoffman was optioned to AAA Albuquerque. Still, it’s important that we include Hoffman, as the given situation proves to be the exception to the very rule this article contends.

When we talk about depth, it is normally intended as an allusion to bench roles and the bullpen’s mop-up crew. The rotation, however, has taken a serious hit upon learning of Chad Bettis and his newly metastasized tumors. The slight difference between skill levels of supposed depth pieces is amplified once it is exposed to the concept of starting on an MLB mound every fifth day. In this case, skill truly wins out.

The door is officially open for at least one pitcher with no previous MLB experience to join the starting staff. Such lack of experience is likely what will allow Bud Black to feel more comfortable giving the ball to German Marquez, although his taste of The Show is pretty minimal itself.

Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela are playing well so far this spring. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post has even predicted both crack the rotation over Marquez. But both come with major logistical concerns.

In regards to Freeland, I’m not talking about his relatively low strikeout rates in the minors. In discussing Freeland with scouts, it sounds as if he finally figured out his changeup in August. Both Bud Black and Freeland himself have noted the strides he has made. But one issue lingers; Freeland’s lack of 40-man status.

Senzatela has a spot on the 40-man already, despite only logging seven starts above High-A. In my humble opinion, however, the possibility of Senzatela in the rotation to start 2017 is overblown. The Rockies are likely just getting as good of a look as possible, as Senzatela has an extensive history of DL stints. While he has put together a solid series of outings this month, I can’t imagine the organization opting to expedite the developmental process at this point in the rebuild.

Even in the upper levels of the minors, pitchers are still honing major components of their craft. Considering the relative importance of skill in the context of a rotation spot as it is to conventional depth roles, selecting the least polished option seems foolish. Despite Freeland’s roster limitations, I expect he and Marquez to be handed the final two spots.

 

Bullpen (2 spots available)

Jason Motte

Age: 34

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 8.027

Options Remaining: 2X

 

Chad Qualls

Age: 38

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 12.058

Options Remaining: 3X

 

Jordan Lyles

Age: 26

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 5.021

Options Remaining: 0X

 

Harrison Musgrave

Age: 25

40-man: No

Service Time: None

Options Remaining: 3

 

German Marquez

Age: 22

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 0.027

Options Remaining: 2

 

Scott Oberg

Age: 27

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 1.081

Options Remaining: 1

 

Like Shap, I am convinced of the idea that Bud Black will enter the season with thirteen pitchers. Once we have accounted for Holland, Ottavino, McGee, Estevez, and Dunn all being locked in, the real competition begins.

No, Chris Rusin is no longer in the conversation for a rotation spot. It’s safe to assume will be locked in once he’s healthy. The Denver Post’s Nick Groke is now suggesting Rusin should be ready for Opening Day, which will make things much easier from a roster management standpoint. Nobody will have to be optioned, outrighted or designated for assignment a week into the season.

The final two spots are for Jason Motte and Chad Qualls to lose. If you were to go solely by performance, neither was even close to what Bridich had hoped when he brought them in a year ago.

But, as you can see, there is an ‘X’ marked next to the remaining options total for Motte, Qualls, and Jordan Lyles. This signifies that all three must give consent to any form of minor league assignment. In an effort to mitigate potentially giving up much-needed bullpen depth, it is likely that the final two spots will be distributed to two of those three. While Harrison Musgrave has emerged as an intriguing option in recent weeks, he will have to wait his turn.

In narrowing a pool of Motte, Qualls, and Lyles to two, a pair of questions arise. The first is how much dead money Dick Monfort is willing to take on. Jose Reyes has already done a number on 2017 payroll in that regard. The nearly nine million combined in guarantees to Motte and Qualls will make it a tough decision to cut either loose.

The second question is about Spring performance. Yes, I know, I have already denounced skill as the practical difference between being rostered and not. But this is not a matter of slight differences in performance. This is a matter of two pitchers on the tail end of their careers.

We are at the point where Motte and Qualls should constantly be reevaluated. Any perceived decline in abilities should be taken with much more than just a grain of salt. Motte, in particular, is someone that we need to worry about. Four years removed from Tommy John surgery, Motte is gradually losing velocity. Anybody who has seen Motte pitch should be able to recognize that he does not have the stuff to compensate for a lack of heat. I will be watching the radar gun closely whenever Jason Motte throws these next few days, as anything below 95 on his four-seamer could be the end of his career.

 

Bench (3 spots available)

Alex Amarista

Age: 27

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 5.040

Options Remaining: 0X

 

Christian Adames

Age: 25

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 1.052

Options Remaining: 0

 

Jordan Patterson

Age: 25

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 0.027

Options Remaining: 3

 

Stephen Cardullo

Age: 29

40-man: No

Service Time: 0.038

Options Remaining: 3

 

Pat Valaika

Age: 24

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 0.027

Options Remaining: 3

 

Raimel Tapia

Age: 23

40-man: Yes

Service Time: 0.031

Options Remaining: 2

 

Rafael Ynoa

Age: 29

40-man: No

Service Time: 0.153

Options Remaining: 1

 

Chris Denorfia

Age: 36

40-man: No

Service Time: 8.041

Options Remaining: 0X

 

This was supposed to be a battle for the last spot on the bench. Ian Desmond’s left hand and David Dahl’s rib, however, had other plans. There are no locks among this group, but reading between the tea leaves should allow for some degree of certainty.

First, we have exactly three players with no options remaining. Seeing as Chris Denorfia is only on a minor league deal, his lack of options is irrelevant. The other two, Alexi Amarista and Christian Adames, are very similar in terms of what they have to offer.

When Desmond and Dahl return, at least one of Adames and Amarista will have to give up their roster spot. Which one it’s going to be is far from decided, but it’s safe to say both have bought themselves some time before their Rockies tenures come to a close. The same can be said about Denorfia if he were to make the roster.

One person who has both options and a legitimate shot at cracking the opening day roster is Jordan Patterson. His versatility sets him apart from the aging Denorfia, and his current status as a member of the 40-man likely gives him the edge for the final spot.