Broncos Roundtable: How can Denver beat LA?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Before their Week 10 bye, the Denver Broncos faced the hottest team in the AFC, the Houston Texans.

Coming off their Week 10 bye, the Broncos are again faced with the hottest team in the AFC. This time, however, it’s the red-hot Los Angeles Chargers.

Riding a six-game win streak, the Chargers are hitting on all strides. But for Philip Rivers to extend the win streak to seven games, he’ll need to take care of Von Miller and Co.

The BSN Broncos crew breaks down what Denver can do to pull off the road upset and pull one game closer to .500.

ARE THE BRONCOS BETTER THAN THEIR 3-6 RECORD?

Ryan

Probably — Look, their schedule has been brutal, they’ve had a couple bad breaks, and they lost at least one game that they definitely should have won. On paper, they are certainly better than 3-6, but that’s where they are.

What’s unfortunate for Denver is that, with the way the schedule panned out, all of their hope will be crushed by the time it finally lightens up.

If you had sprinkled a few, or all, of Cleveland, San Francisco and another matchup with Oakland in the first half of the season, this team would probably be in contention for the wild card right now. Even with the schedule ratcheting up, the hope would be there.

Now, with hope fleeting, they could end up being worse than 3-6.

Zac

No, but… — They are better than last year’s team. Through nine games one year ago, Denver had the exact same 3-6 record.

However, this year’s team is not only better, but also there’s more reason for hope for the future thanks to the rookie class.

Saying that, it’s easy to say Denver is better than their 3-6 record because they’ve played the Chiefs and Rams close and could be a few plays away from a winning record.

But don’t forget about the close wins against the Seahawks and Raiders. If the ball bounced the wrong way in those games, Denver could be without one or two or their three wins.

Andre

Sure they are — Without a doubt, the Broncos are better than their record.

When you play three division leaders close in four different games, and probably should’ve gone 2-and-2 against the Kansas City Chiefs (twice), LA Rams, and Houston Texans, you’re not a bottom dweller.

Only six teams have a worse record than Denver, but the Orange & Blue’s point differential of -8 is 19th in the NFL, better than teams still in the hunt like the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins.

On the other hand, the 7-2 Chargers have five wins against bottom feeder teams and were blown out by both the Rams and Chiefs.

Bill Parcells famously said “you are what your record says you are” and the greater point of that quote is that you resemble your record, you internalize it. A losing record makes for a defeated and frustrated locker room, which the Broncos proud roster has become.

So sure, Denver hasn’t caught many breaks with the schedule or in key game situations, but their record is what it is, and climbing out of the hole they’re in becomes harder by the week.

WHAT ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE?

Ryan

The youngins — Phillip Lindsay. Bradley Chubb. Courtland Sutton. Royce Freeman. DaeSean Hamilton. Josey Jewell. Su’a Cravens.

The Broncos young core right now is the only thing that will make this season’s abysmal record feel better than last year’s abysmal record.

Let’s see these young guns continue their development and get even more involved in the game plan. As this season goes on, their development is really all that matters.

Zac

Positive offensive line play — The youth movement has already given plenty of optimism for the future, but clearly, as the team sits at 3-6, there are many, many holes left on the team.

Outside of quarterback, none is bigger than the offensive line, especially with the season-ending injury to Max Garcia.

As it stands right now, none of the five starting offensive linemen on Sunday are locks to be back on the team next year in the same role they will be playing on Sunday.

Going up against a stout Chargers front seven, the most encouraging aspect of this game, outside of a win, would be to see one, two or even three offensive lineman begin to emerge — whether that be Garett Bolles at left tackle, Elijah Wilkinson at right guard or Billy Turner at left guard.

Over the course of the next seven weeks, it would be a major win for Denver to find a few gems along their line.

Andre

The young skill-position players shine on offense — The Broncos strengths on defense are clear; their edge rushing duo and star cornerback Chris Harris Jr, which coincidently are the three premium positions on a defense.

Offensively, things are a lot murkier, but there’s plenty of promise to go around between Philip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, and a young core of skill players that are on the cusp of turning that promise into production.

Lindsay being utilized in more creative ways would be a plus, and for all the fanfare Sutton’s received, he still hasn’t come close to breaking out just yet. Royce Freeman, DaeSean Hamilton, Tim Patrick, and even Jeff Heuerman are all talented, if they can close the year with some big performances that would be huge in changing the offense’s outlook—while also making Denver a more desirable free agent destination.

KEY MATCHUP

Ryan

The Broncos vs. Themselves — Have you watched this team on the road at all this year? This is the only matchup that matters.

If history tells us anything, we can pencil in about one interception for Case Keenum, two holding penalties that negate big plays, one unnecessary 15-yard penalty and one breakdown in coverage. Add all of that up, and you find a big, fat L.

If the Broncos are going to have any chance in this one, they need to figure themselves out first, then they can worry about matching up with the Chargers.

Zac

Von and Chubb vs. Rivers — In the week leading up to the game, Vance Joseph wasn’t shy admitting in the past Rivers has been prone to mistakes.

This year, however, has been a different story.

“But he’s not doing that [this year],” Joseph added. “He is playing smart and efficient football.”

A large part of that is due to Rivers being the fourth-least sacked quarterback in the league — only getting taken down just over once per game.

Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, the league’s top sack duo, will have a large role in not just sacking Rivers, but forcing him into mistakes he’s not accustomed to this year.

If they do that, Denver will be in good shape. If not, it will be another long plane ride home.

Andre

Ground and pound — The Chargers, much like the Broncos, have one of the best rushing attacks in all of football, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, behind only the Broncos and the Green Bay Packers.

Denver’s defensive struggles to stop the run are well known, though the Bolts aren’t that much better conceding 4.5 YPC, compared to the Broncos 4.8. So while the Broncos O-line is beat up, LA will have to show they can stop them on the ground. 

The Chargers offense has really thrived off a run-first mentality, allowing Rivers to be more efficient and keeping opposing pass rushing units at bay. If the Broncos are going to stand a chance in this one, they have to stop the run and break off a few big gains of their own.

THE BRONCOS WIN IF

Ryan

Philip Rivers helps them — As Zac so eloquently pointed out earlier in the week, the Broncos and Chargers aren’t as different as their records would suggest.

The main difference is that L.A. has one of the best quarterbacks in football and the Broncos have one of the worst quarterbacks in football. At least, that’s what the numbers suggest.

The Broncos win if Philip Rivers plays like Case Keenum and Case Keenum plays like Philip Rivers. That means Rivers turning the ball over, struggling on third down and failing to punch it in in the red zone.

Zac

They drop 30 — It’s easier said than done as Denver put up a goose-egg the last time the two teams met in the soccer stadium in Los Angeles back in 2017.

In the Chargers’ two losses in 2018, they gave up over 30 points. In their wins, they haven’t given up a single 30-point game.

Keenum and Co. topped 30 just once this year in their 45-10 route of the Cardinals.

Andre

They avoid breakdowns — Playing a near-perfect game isn’t the norm, nor should it be, but the breakdowns in coverage, fluke penalties, and issues on the offensive line have doomed the Broncos into their 3-6 record.

If they can play mistake-free disciplined football, they will beat the Chargers, simple as that. Big plays will come, but first, it’s essential the Broncos stop shooting themselves in the foot.

RESULT (CHARGERS -7)

Ryan

Chargers 28, Broncos 17 — The Broncos are just bad on the road, they’ll be without the entirety of their interior offensive line, and the Chargers are, in fact, pretty darn good.

All of that is a whole lot to overcome for a team that has already lost most of their juice.

Zac

Chargers 24, Broncos 16 — The Broncos will be without 60 percent of their starting offensive line on Sunday. A whopping 60 percent.

If that wasn’t enough, Los Angeles is four games better than the Broncos through 10 weeks.

If for some reason Denver’s misfit offensive line is better than the one they had going into the season they’ll have a chance. But I wouldn’t put my money on it.

On a positive note, this would be an improvement over last year as Denver got beat 21-0 in this same game one year ago.

Andre

Chargers 25, Broncos 21 — LA is 3-and-0 at home scratching out two wins by a combined three points and blowing out the Raiders by 16. This is certain to be another close game.

Even a Denver upset doesn’t seem so far fetched as Vance Joseph’s first road win on a Sunday is within reach. However, the Broncos just have to play a perfect game to make up for the vast difference between the two quarterbacks and smart money says they won’t make enough big plays to bridge that gap.

The Chargers have transformed into a team that thrives in close games after years of falling flat on their faces in the clutch. Denver remains at least a year away from getting to that point. In crunch time, the Bolts have a big edge which is ultimately the difference in this one.