2018-19 Season Preview: Jamal Murray is set to make the leap in year three

The Denver Nuggets’ offseason was not even an hour old when Jamal Murray began to talk about all the ways he wanted to hone his game.

“I’m excited for this summer. I’m excited to get back in the gym, work on my body, work on myself and come back stronger next year,” Murray said from the Target Center visitor’s locker room after the Nuggets’ overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on the final night of the 2017-18 regular season. “We will not be in this position next year. We won’t be in the ninth spot. I don’t want to be fighting (for a playoff spot). I want to be locked into the playoffs.”

The 21-year-old Canadian sharpshooter had just endured the toughest loss of his pro career, but all he wanted to discuss was what came next. He understood even during a difficult moment: good things are on the horizon for him and his teammates if they stay the course.

Last season, Murray proved he could be a lethal scorer from any zone on the floor. He upped his scoring average from 9.9 points per game to 16.7. When defenders played him too tight, he got to the rim and finished with either hand. He feasted in the in-between zones, shooting a sizzling 44 percent from the mid-range, per Cleaning the Glass. And that silky three-point stroke Murray relied on to make the third-most deep balls by a college freshman ever? That started translating too. Murray caught fire in the month of December and wound up shooting 37.8 percent from three-point land on 5.5 attempts per game.

The list of players who scored as much as efficiently as Murray during their age-20 seasons or younger includes six other names: Magic Johnson, Anthony Davis, Shaquille O’Neal, Adrian Dantley, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Durant. Murray will be the same age in his third season as Stephen Curry when he was as a rookie. Murray will be a year younger than Damian Lillard when he was a rookie. When you put Murray’s age into perspective, it’s hard not to wonder how much higher he can climb.

One of Murray’s goals this season is to join the 50-40-90 club (50 percent from the field, 40 percent from three, 90 percent from the free throw line). It will be difficult but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Murray shot 90.5 percent from the free throw last year. Creeping above 40 percent from three seems obtainable. But raising his field goal percentage (45.1 percent in 2017-18) nearly five points is a long shot. Still, it’s hard not to admire Murray’s ambition.

“My three-point percentage should be my free throw percentage,” he said with a straight face at his exit interview in April.

It’s not hard to imagine Murray leading the Nuggets in scoring in 2018-19, even with the addition of Isaiah Thomas at backup point guard. Murray was third on the team in scoring average last year — less than a point per game behind Gary Harris and less than two points per game behind Nikola Jokic. Could he take a leap like the one Russell Westbrook did from year two to three when he went from 16.1 points per game to 21.9 and made his first All-Star appearance?

Murray is lethal from a standstill position. He shot 41.6 percent on catch-and-shoot threes and averaged 1.18 points per possession on spot-up jumpers (88th percentile league-wide). The next step is for him to become a more consistent threat off the bounce. Murray shot 32 percent on 2.1 pull-up threes per contest. Meanwhile, Curry came in at 40 percent while Lillard finished at 36 percent – both on more than twice the attempts.

As a playmaker, Murray still needs to master the basics of playing point guard. The Nuggets don’t need him to be Steve Nash — not with Jokic at the controls. They just need Murray to make the simple play consistently. Hit the open shooter instead of driving into a crowd.

Find Jokic out of the pick and roll so he can dissect the defense from the middle of the floor instead of forcing it.

The Nuggets become that much more dangerous when Murray is making the right reads. They went 23-12 when he recorded four assists or more. They went 23-23 when he handed out three or fewer.

Defensively, Murray has a ways to go as well. (You can say that about every player on this roster not named Paul Millsap.) He finished 92nd out of 99 point guards in ESPN’s Defensive Real-Plus Minus metric. Catch-all statistics don’t tell the whole story, of course. But too often, Murray was a step slow, in the wrong position or failed to stay focused for an entire possession. He needs to do his part to help nudge the Nuggets toward respectability on the defensive end.

Murray can be a better defender. He’s tenacious. He was one of four players 6-foot-4 or shorter to pull down at least one offensive rebound per game. His scoring instincts are what make him good. His intensity and drive are what can make him special.

As a rookie, Murray played 82 games even though he was dealing with a double sports hernia. He had surgery during the offseason, so he spent the summer laid up instead of in the gym. He’s had plenty of time to get his work in this summer.

Murray knows all the responsibilities that come with being a starting point guard now. He’s had five months to sharpen his skills. Don’t be surprised if he makes another leap in 2018-19.