Broncos Roundtable: What will Drew Lock's first stat line be?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — All signs point to the future pulling into the station on Sunday afternoon at Empower Field at Mile High when Drew Lock trots out onto the field for the first time as the Denver Broncos’ starting quarterback.

Hope will be back in Broncos Country.

But what will the kickoff to No. 3’s career look like? Will the 6-foot-4 talented rookie guide Denver to their fourth win of the season?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down.

WHAT WILL DREW LOCK’S FIRST STAT LINE BE?

Ryan

18/29, 215 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception — It won’t be perfect, but it will be entertaining and it will give Broncos fans a pretty good feeling about what the future may look like.

Lock will bring back the fire and passion that the Broncos offense has been missing for years and will make some big plays with both his arm and his feet.

When all is said and done, Lock will have outdueled his counterpart, Phillip Rivers, in his first career start.

Zac

14/23, 224 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 rushing touchdown — On the surface, Drew’s stat line doesn’t look amazing. But in totality, Lock’s debut will be glistening with hope. Not only will he have double the number of touchdowns to interceptions, but he will also display his rocket arm and mobility.

Lock will make Denver’s offense fun again, even in his struggles. When No. 3 is scrambling sideline-to-sideline in the backfield attempting to make plays, people will be reminded of what it was like watching No. 7 play. I’m certainly not saying Lock will be John Elway, especially in his first start, but he has the ability to play a similar game as his boss.

With struggling tackles, and an offensive scheme built off play action, Lock will be on the move quite a bit—a task he’s very capable of handling.

Mase

15-of-24, 198 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT – What do C.J. Beathard, Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens and Brandon Allen have in common?

Besides the fact that all played under offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello, that quartet of quarterbacks also avoided throwing interceptions when thrust into making their first starts with Scangarello as a an assistant coach. Collectively, the group averaged 15.5 completions in 23.8 attempts, 198 yards per game and 1.5 touchdown passes per game.

I’ll round down a bit owing to Lock’s sub-60 completion percentage for his four seasons at Missouri, along with the Chargers’ expected return to full capacity on defense, with safety Derwin James expected back in the lineup. But if Lock finishes with this stat line, the Broncos will be pleased — and if he also avoids a fumble and plays turnover-free football, they’ll have an excellent chance at victory.

IF YOU COULD ONLY GIVE JUSTIN SIMMONS OR CHRIS HARRIS JR. A CONTRACT, WHO WOULD YOU CHOOSE?

Ryan

Justin Simmons — While it’s clear that Vic Fangio’s scheme is very safety friendly, it’s also clear that Simmons is a perfect fit, and he’s playing at a Pro-Bowl level because of it. At 26-years old, Simmons is about to head into his prime, and you want to make sure that takes place in Denver.

Additionally, Simmons is a coach’s dream and a part of the budding young core of leaders on this team, this is a guy you want to keep around. When you add in the fact that he’s one of Elway’s best draft picks, it’s clear that this is the choice.

Zac

The argument for Chris Harris Jr. — The obvious answer here is Justin Simmons, which I would agree with.

But, outside of the obvious that Simmons is younger and trending up, where Chris Harris Jr. is either in his prime or trending down, albeit slowly, there is still a solid argument to keeping Chris in Orange & Blue past this year.

If the Broncos lose Chris, they’ll be down to a cornerback room full of players that don’t have a single full year of starting experience in the NFL, outside of Bryce Callahan and it’s hard to count on him after he missed the entire season. Letting Chris walk would instantly make cornerback an urgent need—along with left tackle, potentially quarterback, interior offensive line and wide receiver. That’s another massive hole to willingly put on your own team.

On the other hand, even if Simmons left, the Broncos would still have Kareem Jackson at safety and he’s proved to be a baller this year.

Additionally, while Simmons is having a tremendous year, Vic Fangio’s defenses have been known to be safety friendly. By letting go of Simmons, it may be easier for Vic to find another safety to fill Justin’s shoes than a top-notch cornerback.

Finally, if the Broncos signed Chris to a contract, they could always explore the franchise tag with Simmons. Typically, franchise tags cost teams an arm and a leg. But the franchise tag at safety is relatively affordable at just above $11 million for 2019, while the corner tag was above $16 million.

In the end, Fangio’s made it clear he wants Simmons here for the future and with Justin only getting better, the logical choice would be to keep the former third-round pick.

Mase

Justin Simmons — It’s about youth and where the defense could be headed under Fangio. While the best possible scenario involves keeping both Harris and Simmons, the Broncos could blanch at boasting a starting secondary featuring three players making over $10 million per year.

The difficult choice here to keep Simmons and part ways with Harris would create a need where one doesn’t exist, but it would also be part of an overall generational shift in which the leadership baton is passed to key players of the Broncos’ young core.

 

RESULT VS. CHARGERS (-3)

Ryan

Broncos 23, Chargers 17 — The Drew Lock era starts off with a bang, but in the end, it’s the defense that puts the clamps on Phillip Rivers and the Chargers to deliver this win.

Rivers serves up a couple big picks and Lock serves up a couple big plays. The Mile High crowd is rewarded for braving the conditions to see the potential QB of the future.

Zac

Broncos 25, Chargers 24 — Welcome to the Drew Lock era. Not only do the Broncos get the season sweep of the Chargers, but they also hit the 25-point mark for the first time since Week 7 of last year. What a difference a quarterback can make.

No. 3 Lock jerseys will instantly shoot up to the top of every Christmas wishlist in Broncos Country.

Lock will be far from perfect in his first career start, but his mobility, through-the-roof confidence, arm strength and swag will open up Denver’s offense and bring the big play back to Mile High.

The time that everyone’s waited for is here. And it won’t disappoint.

Mase

Broncos 20, Chargers 19 – The track record of starting quarterbacks making midseason debuts under Scangarello offers evidence that the first-year NFL coordinator can install a game plan that caters to Lock’s strengths. Meanwhile, the turnover-prone Philip Rivers could be a healing elixir for a Denver defense that has been manhandled for the last six quarters of play dating back to the Nov. 17 loss at Minnesota.