FORT COLLINS, Colo. — It may only be September, but this week’s game against the Toledo Rockets is a must-win for Colorado State football. Currently sitting at 1-2, with conference play just around the corner, the Rams simply cannot afford to fall at home Saturday night if they want to get back to a bowl game.
With the league coming out strong in the opening month of the season, the margin for error is already going to be thin for the Rams. Even with a win over Toledo, CSU is going to have to beat some good teams in order to qualify for the postseason.
As it currently stands, only two of the Mountain West opponents on CSU’s schedule are below .500 and even that’s slightly misleading because one is Fresno State (0-2) — the Bulldogs have lost by a combined six points to USC and Minnesota, and are easily one of the league’s most talented teams.
So while New Mexico (1-1) and UNLV (1-2) should be considered winnable, it seems likely that the Rams will be underdogs in the other six conference games, especially now that Collin Hill is officially out for the year.
A loss to Toledo would mean that the Rams would have to win five-of-eight just to finish the season 6-6. Operating under the assumption that two of those wins would be UNM and UNLV, the Rams would still have to find a way to beat three of the following opponents: Air Force (2-0), Boise State (3-0), Fresno State (0-2), San Diego State (3-0), Utah State (1-1) and Wyoming (3-0).
While that wouldn’t be impossible, those teams are presently a combined 12-3 in 2019 — and the last time CSU beat any of them was Oct. 7, 2017, when the Rams topped the Aggies by 13 in Logan, Utah.
With all of this in mind, it’s easy to see why the Rams need to find a way to top the Rockets this weekend. Obviously, it wouldn’t be impossible to lose and still qualify for the postseason but with the schedule not doing them any favors, that’s just not a position CSU is going to want to be in.
So who are the Toledo Rockets (1-1) and how does CSU win this game?
Pressure Mitchell Guadagni and limit Toledo’s big plays
Toledo is legitimately a better football team than Arkansas, which is concerning considering how the defense has looked against Division 1 opponents in 2019.
Through two games, Toledo is averaging 257 yards through the air and 186 yards on the ground with an offense led by quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and Kentucky transfer running back Bryant Koback.
Toledo quarterback Mitchell Guadagni (No. 6) scrambles against Kentucky in Week 1.
With this duo, the Rockets like to wear down defenses with an aggressive rushing attack and a fast-paced offense that’s tough to keep up with.
In Week 1 against Kentucky, the Rockets scored touchdowns on two of their first three possessions — each drive was seven plays and averaged roughly 3 minutes in length. Although the Wildcats ended up winning by 14, had Guadagni not gotten injured in the third quarter, the Rockets very well may have won this game.
Against Murray State in Week 2, Guadagni was back in the lineup and the offense once again looked explosive. The Rockets won 45-0, racked up 538 total yards, 348 of which were through the air and added 190 yards on the ground as well.
Murray State is an awful program so these Week 2 numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Overall, though, the sheer consistency of the offense stands out. Whenever a team can average 11.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.4 yards per carry, they’re going to be incredibly difficult to combat — factor in CSU’s 124th ranked defense (40.0 points per game) — and an offense like that could truly run wild.
If the Rams are going to slow down this Guadagni-led offense, a few things must happen.
Firstly, the pre-snap communication is going to be paramount because you know that the Rockets are going to try and play fast. It’s hard enough to stop this offense but if guys on defense can’t get lined up, Toledo is going to move the ball at will.
Breaking off of that point, the Rams cannot miss tackles — not against this offense. Mike Bobo said on Monday that aside from the infamous touchdown at the end of the Arkansas game, he felt the defense didn’t struggle to tackle. Instead, Bobo said that the defenders needed to do a better job of creating pressure and swarming the football.
Whatever the issue is, it needs to change quickly. The Rams no longer have the benefit of leaning on Hill to throw up numbers. The defense has to pick it up if CSU is going to salvage the season.
Get Patrick O’Brien get in a rhythm
Patrick O’Brien told BSN Rams in August that if his number was ever called, he would be up for the task. That time is now — with Hill out for the season, the former four star recruit has a chance to really cement himself as the team’s new starter with a strong showing Saturday night.
O’Brien completed 8-of-11 attempts for 135 yards and one touchdown against the Razorbacks. For most of the fourth quarter, though, the offense really struggled to function.
In defense of the young QB, O’Brien was thrown into a difficult situation. Between the emotion of seeing Hill go down and his lack of experience with the ones, it wouldn’t have been fair to expect O’Brien to come in and throw 20 points on the board; especially with how the Hogs really turned up the pressure in the fourth quarter.
Moving forward, though, things need to be different if O’Brien wants to assure the Ram faithful that he can be the guy. One of the ways that Bobo could help O’Brien do so is getting him in a rhythm early against Toledo.
Through three games this season, the fifth-year head coach has shown a willingness to attack aggressively in the first quarter and the offense has really benefitted from it. In all three games this season, CSU has scored with a big play on its opening drive, and while there may not be a direct correlation, the Rams are averaging 34.3 points and 505 yards of total offense per game so they’re doing something right.
Colorado State QB Patrick O’Brien (No. 12) improvises with his legs and tries to make a play against the Arkansas defense.
That approach should not change with a new quarterback. If O’Brien can get the ball in the hands of skill players right off the bat and potentially lead a scoring drive or two in the process, it’s going to do wonders for his confidence and the team’s confidence.
With that in mind, look for CSU to come out of the tunnel with an attack-first mindset. It wouldn’t be surprising if on the opening series, Bobo has O’Brien complete a few short passes to let him get a feel for things in the pocket, before taking a deep shot down the field to test Toledo’s defense.
O’Brien has a big arm and displayed great touch on the deep ball in practice this week. If he can connect with one of his athletic wide receivers early and stretch the field, it will open up the offense, and show the Rockets they cannot consistently stack the box.
More importantly, it could help the offense create some early momentum. The last thing that the unit needs is to have to play from behind after a slow start.
Control possession and dictate the pace
Stemming from the last point, it will be important to get O’Brien rolling in the passing offense but the Rams have to value their possessions and be balanced as well.
CSU has not been good with the turnover margin this season and it’s a big reason why the team is 1-2. If the offense is sloppy with the football and gives Toledo extra offensive possessions, chances are the Rams will be heading into conference play with three losses on their resume.
On the other hand, if CSU can force a few turnovers and give themselves additional opportunities to score, the home underdogs may just find a way to steal a win.
It’s not rocket science, it’s football — it may not take a genius to understand that whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game more times than not. But when the backup quarterback is running the show, it’s even more important to find ways to help him.
If CSU can makes things easier on their inexperienced quarterback by forcing turnovers, winning on special teams, making big plays, etc., O’Brien is good enough to put the team in a position to win. Can his teammates step up and allow him to do it?
Finally, the Rams have to control the tempo and dictate the pace in this game. If CSU allows Toledo to set the tone, it’s going to exhaust the defense and put the offense in a position where they basically have to score every possession. That didn’t work against CU or Arkansas and it won’t work against Toledo either.
CSU must be balanced on offense and use the running backs to chew up clock. Everything can’t be up-tempo because a back-and-forth shootout will benefit Toledo’s experienced offense and put CSU’s defense in a bad spot.
Really, as long as the Rams are driving, the slower the pace of this game is, the more it favors the team in pumpkin and alfalfa. The goal needs to be to keep Toledo’s offense on the sidelines as much as possible — they can’t beat you if they don’t have possession.
CSU vs. Toledo Info
Where: Canvas Stadium
Theme: Ag Day
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN2
Radio: FM 102.9 (Fort Collins) | AM 1340/FM 104.7 (Denver)
