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Well, that was definitely something.
When Joe Sakic held his postseason press conference and promised a more “aggressive” approach in free agency than previous years, we all interpreted that to mean they’d go after the big names in free agency.
They certainly did that…and a whole lot more.
Instead of looking at their current roster and using the fourth pick on a player who fills a need there, the Avs stuck to their guns and took Bowen Byram despite an already stacked defense. That addition gave them options that would be key just 10 days later.
Even during their failed pursuit of Artemi Panarin, they began shaking up the roster. Carl Soderberg, their fourth-highest scoring forward last season, was shipped to Arizona for a draft pick and a depth defenseman. That draft pick lasted mere days in Colorado’s possession before it was sent to Washington for Andre Burakovsky, the first NHL addition of the offseason.
Then came the opening of free agency and they used the “if you can’t beat ’em, sign their free agents” tactic by quickly signing away Joonas Donskoi from San Jose. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was added soon after and the Avs brought back one of their own in re-signing Colin Wilson to a one-year deal.
It was a flurry of activity that saw three forwards added to a young group that already was pretty full.
Then came the bombshell – Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot traded to Toronto in exchange for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen.
The crater left behind in the Avs lineup was the removal of 150 points from last year’s lineup. Colorado’s top line remained intact but in search of secondary scoring, they traded away scorers four through six on their roster.
The highest-scoring player from last year’s team outside of the top line was suddenly J.T. Compher, whose 32 points was encouraging but certainly nothing spectacular.
The free-agent signings left the roster feeling kind of incomplete like something was missing. The Kadri trade changed all of that. Suddenly, the roster had been completely reshaped.
But a question lingered after all the dust had settled: Are the Avalanche any better?
Right now, I honestly don’t know. It feels like a roster built upon a heavy dose of optimism. Now, every team does this but the Avalanche especially feel like they’re banking on a lot of unanswered questions going their way.
- Philipp Grubauer failed to prove last year he could be a full-time starter, despite the strong finish to the season
- His backup, Pavel Francouz, has two relief appearances in the NHL in his career.
- Donskoi’s 37 points last season are the highest any of Colorado’s forwards not on the top line (except Kadri) has scored since Andre Burakovsky’s 38-point season in 2015-16.
- Colin Wilson’s 42-point season in 2014-15 is the ONLY 40-point season among any of the players not on the top line (except Kadri).
- Removing Barrie leaves an enormous hole in defensive scoring. Colorado’s defensemen combined for 497 games played and 156 points last year. Barrie’s 59 points were 37.8% of the Avs’ scoring from the blue line.
- Obviously, Cale Makar is here now and his 10 playoff games provide optimism but it’s still a big ask for him to replace Barrie. Only 10 defensemen in the last 10 years have scored 40 or more points in their rookie seasons.
- Even if Bowen Byram makes the team, only five defensemen in the last 10 years have produced even 20-point seasons in their rookie seasons immediately after being drafted.
- Speaking of defense, Ian Cole is out until at least December as he recovers from hip surgery and Erik Johnson “could” be ready for the start of the season after shoulder surgery. Come on down, Kevin Connauton?
- Asking for career years from Burakovsky, Compher, Donskoi, Tyson Jost, and Sam Girard (among others) is a heavy ask. That’s rolling the dice.
And somehow despite all of that, it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable for it to break Colorado’s way.
- Jost and Girard are just 21 and have shown enough flashes that believing they’re capable of breaking out offensively is absolutely possible, if not even likely.
- Cale Makar is a special player and you don’t count out special players. Ever.
- Kadri’s presence is really emphasized in the list above because he’s a rock on their second line, something Colorado hasn’t had since before the 48-point season in 2016-17.
- Burakovsky and Donskoi are both players with very strong underlying numbers and metrics that suggest more ice time could mean a major boost in production. Burakovsky, especially, has the kind of shooting talent where if he’s able to generate 180 shots on goal, he could be a 20-goal scorer for the Avs.
- The forward corps is significantly deeper than last season, even if it’s not necessarily “better.” The projected fourth line (Nieto, Calvert, Bellemare) combined for 64 points last season. Last year’s fourth line regulars (Bourque, Andrighetto, Dries) combined for 31 points.
- Obviously, a cut in ice time for Nieto and Calvert likely means reduced production but even if they only get 15 points out of each of them, that’s still a 14-point leap over last year’s offensive black hole of a group.
- It’s not quantifiable via numbers but the Avalanche are without a doubt a heavier, harder team to play against with the additions of Kadri, Bellemare, and Donskoi. Those three are going to help change their identity from “fast but soft” to “fast and obnoxious”.
Every team faces questions going into a new season. Unexpected things happen every year for every squad. The more I look at it, the more I appreciate what Joe Sakic did in the last two weeks.
He could have sat back and believed his group to be fine having made the second round and pushed San Jose to Game 7. It would’ve been justifiable for him to lean on internal growth and see what the defense with Barrie looked like across 82 games.
Instead, he chased Panarin. He even contacted Carolina about Sebastian Aho’s availability. He struck out on the big fish so he used the biggest bait he had to catch one of the league’s best second-line centers on a great contract.
Sakic lived up to his word and was aggressive in addressing his team’s needs but did the Avalanche get better?
Definitely. Maybe.

0 Comments (10 conversations)
Love the way you put it- going from fast and soft to fast and obnoxious. When I look at those forward lines, I can’t help but think this team is gonna be an absolute pain in the neck to play against. And I love that.
Bob_W
If there is a net decrease in total points scored by our players but an increase in team points in the standings then I will take that every time.
Sunfunbun
AJ, great analysis, but I think the big picture shows, without doubt, an improved Avalanche team. I love the changes made by Joe Sakic. Our current roster is a better blend of players, eliminating a number of repetitive type softer ex Avs with harder nosed skill players, we absolutely needed. We are now Cup competitive, the first time since pre cap days. We will need some tweaks and a bit of luck…I’ve rarely, if ever, seen a team that doesn’t…but I believe we’re set up with the right roster for a decade long run of multiple Cups.
denvermaxd
Please just give us league average goaltending, Grubauer. With that I think this roster is extremely competitive. The changes to the forward corps look to me like a very solid reshaping of the group. The defense will be interesting at first, if both EJ and Cole are out. “Young” seems like an understatement in that case. Goaltending will be the key, and I’m pretty uncertain about it. I have a feeling we may see more of Francouz than expected.
mladen
Relying on other teams player always has been and always will be a recipe for disaster
ColoradoCartography
These are like mini pods I can listen to while doing non fun adulting.
I think Joe deserves credit for not screwing us with long term contracts. VERY hard to improve without top FA and without term screwing contracts. I’ve never really heard a team, not that I pay attention to anyone else other than Avs use this strategy but it’s solid.
No one is talking about term. After all this, all new players will not, if fact no players go beyond MacK contract.
We have our own top league wide FA class.
Landy, Makar, Girard, Byram, to sign and now the money will be there.
I also believe character, solid locker room, chemistry is an intangible you can’t chart.
Kadri…heart and soul of Toronto + wore an A
Bellemare…wore an A…Calvert like go hard
Donskoi seems like a high character player
Burakovsky needs a healthy place…it’s here
Byram also wore an A and is high character
Newhook is solid and a great kid, leader
Since (“every city is great to play for”) Duchene left…we’ve been riding high and it gets better with all the new players.
I pumped. Already asked off for training CZ amp and opening night and…it’s not Minnesota.
dduchesne
I really think Sakic will look like a genius next year when we analyze the 19-20 season!
Bednar has a very deep roster to play with and a lot of line combos look good.. I’m thinking Kadri and Landy on a line sounds absolutely filthyyy!
Cerveau
Yep, Joe definitely seems to have improved his game over the years. Getting a good coach helped too – Roy storming out was a blessing in disguise. It’s been incremental improvements ever since, with some major strokes of genius.
Maybe Joe will end up as shrewd a GM as he was a player…
dudleyconrad
Relying on growth from system players didn’t really work last year. I like this approach better. Focus on building depth with known commodities and a minor gamble or two, which the analytics back up.
There will still be space for more kids next year when Nieto and Wilson leave.
Not every prospect turns into a star player, or even a serviceable one. Remember Duncan Siemens? Relying entirely on system players would be just plain dumb.
Cerveau
Fantastic article AJ!
I’ve re read it a couple times and each time I gain more from it… certainly lots to ponder.
The only thing I feel some regrets about is trading away Soderberg, although I was getting the feeling he was getting old, unless he was injured. Having Soderberg either next to Kadri or next line down would have been interesting.
But I do like that we’re more obnoxious now (note the term “we” there…)
As for Grubauer, he’s nothing if not competitive, and now that everybody is sensing the possibility of a cup, I bet he’ll rise to the occasion.
I’m really excited for this team now!
Christopher
Hey AJ,
Just kicking around an idea at the top of another offseason, I wonder if a retrospective piece on the 2016 – 2017 season would make for some interesting content for Avs fans now. Two years ago it was hard to imagine how we were going to muster the courage to show our faces again in the NHL after being the biggest losers in every way. We even lost the draft lottery (although we never did get any better at that). I was just reflecting on what were the biggest changes that got us to where we are now, and that maybe that had content potential. Anyways, easy for me to say without doing, but just a thought.
Excellent piece here by the way
Hockeyhead
Great article AJ. It seems like the AVS are better. Certainly the optimism is there with these moves. It doesn’t seem like Sakic caused salary cap issues with the moves as well. Your projected starting lineup in the Barrie trade article doesn’t even have Kamenev, Bowers, Greer, and Kaut in it. Plus Newhook is in the pipeline. Those guys can continue to develop and eventually replace Nieto, Wilson and Bellemare. Our depth seems to be better than ever and we are not hoping our young forwards take that leap forward like we were hoping last year. Jost excepted for this coming year. Kadri is a great addition as long as he remains disciplined and doesn’t take stupid penalties that cost the team. Looking forward to AB’s and Rantanen’s signing and the start of next season. If the potential is realized, we are going to enjoy some great hockey.