Nuggets Free Agency Primer: Why Denver will likely choose patience and continuity over the opportunity to make a big splash

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You knew free agency was around the corner when the billboards went up.

Two advertisements off of Los Angeles’ I-5 rose earlier this week in an attempt to recruit not the “King of the North” but the “King of SoCal” to the Clippers, who have been a long-rumored destination for Kawhi Leonard, and more could pop up before Sunday at 6 p.m. ET when free agency officially commences.

No such billboards have popped up in Denver over the last week, nor should they. The Nuggets don’t appear to be in the market for one of the top-tier free agents in a class that could include Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Al Horford and others. Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said after the draft that Denver isn’t afraid to bring back largely the same group next season and that relying on improvement from those already on the roster has proven in the past to be a successful strategy that the organization could follow once again. The vibe around Pepsi Center since the Trail Blazers knocked the Nuggets out of the Western semifinals has been just that.

“We’ve had the most success when we’ve shown patience and allowed guys to play into bigger roles,” Connelly said about the upcoming free agency period. “We will look to better ourselves in the coming weeks but we’re not the least bit scared of coming back with largely the same group.”

The group Connelly is referring to is the 54-win team that was a few 50-50 plays away from reaching the Western Conference Finals with one of the youngest rosters in the league. The Nuggets have eight of their nine-man rotation under contract for next season with starting power forward Paul Millsap and his $30.4 million team option hanging in the balance (the common sentiment around the team throughout the season and into the summer has been that Millsap will be back in a Nuggets uniform next year one way or another).

The Nuggets feel comfortable running it back because, as Connelly explained, Denver has done it before and found success. Last summer, the Nuggets converted both of Monte Morris and Torrey Craig’s two-way contracts into standard NBA deals and the two moves paid dividends. Morris began the regular season as Denver’s backup point guard while Isaiah Thomas worked his way back from injury and turned in a 2018-19 campaign that now has the 23-year-old regarded as one of the better reserve lead ball handlers in the league. Craig started 37 games for the Nuggets, whose rotation was ravaged by injuries for much of the season, and maintained his status from a year ago as one of the Nuggets’ top perimeter defenders.

Denver also got internal improvement from Jamal Murray, who looks like he’s on the cusp of a potential All-Star bid next season after a strong playoff debut alongside Nikola Jokic and Malik Beasley. The sweet-shooting two-guard is primed for another leap in year four and there’s reason to believe that the 24-and-under section of the Nuggets’ locker room that includes Jokic, Murray, Morris, Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez, who will enter training camp healthier than he ended last season after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a core muscle injury that hampered him for much of the year, will all continue to expand their games as well.

There’s more optimism for internal improvement outside of the Nuggets’ 2018-19 rotation. Michael Porter Jr. is on the cusp of his Nuggets debut which will come next week at Summer League in Las Vegas and Jarred Vanderbilt, who logged meaningful minutes in the G League last season along with a few garbage time appearances for Denver’s varsity squad, could be an interesting change-of-pace wildcard for Michael Malone to use off of his bench. Connelly helped fuel the Porter hype train when he said after the draft that the 6-foot-10 swingman “resembles the player we saw prior to all the injuries.”

But the Nuggets still have a few holes to plug on their roster. Trey Lyles might not return and Isaiah Thomas and Tyler Lydon don’t look like they’ll be back in Denver next season. The Nuggets could use another body to bolster their front line and Denver’s lack of perimeter defense was apparent at times throughout the playoffs. More 3-and-D wings are always welcome additions to playoff-caliber teams.

If Millsap returns, Denver’s roster will include 12 players who are under contract for next season. One additional full-time roster spot will likely be filled by second-round pick Bol Bol and Vlatko Cancar, the Nuggets’ 2017 draft-and-stash wing, looks like he’s on track to fill another. That leaves Denver with one open roster spot to work with.

The Nuggets aren’t projected to have much if any cap space to work with this summer but could fill their one remaining roster spot by operating as an over-the-cap team and using the mid-level exception. That exception, as long as the Nuggets stay under the luxury tax, would give Denver the ability to sign a player to a contract valued next season at $9.2 million. To go big-game fishing, the Nuggets would have to use some salary cap gymnastics to clear enough cap space to sign a top-tier free agent but the mid-level can still land a quality contributor.

Here are some names that could interest Denver over the coming weeks.

Major Splashes

Tobias Harris – According to Shams Charania, the Nuggets are one of a handful of teams, including the Mavericks, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Kings who are expected to show interest in Harris. Throw in the 76ers, who Harris played for over the second half of last season, and other teams that have max cap space or the ability to create enough room to ink the forward this summer like the Knicks, Nets, Clippers, and Lakers who could turn to Harris if they lose out on their top targets, and he’ll have many suitors.

Harris’ talent is obvious. He can play either forward spot and is a solid but not spectacular career 36% shooter from 3. Harris is long and versatile but not the strongest defender. At just 26-years-old, he’s still approaching the prime of his career and there’s some clear room for improvement within his game.

Adding Harris would give Denver more versatility with its lineups too. The Nuggets could roll out a closing five with Harris at the four alongside Jokic, Murray, Harris and Barton or Torrey Craig, or Harris at the three, where he’d likely start, next to Jokic, Millsap, Murray and Harris. The Nuggets would have to feel confident that Harris is a final piece to their championship puzzle if they’re going to throw a max-level contract at him, and reading the tea leaves, it doesn’t seem to be a likely match between the two sides.

Notable Splashes (mid-level candidates)

Danny Green – The Nuggets don’t currently have an open spot in their starting lineup, which you’d think Green would desire after he started the entire year for the Raptors. Even if he was willing to come off the bench, Denver doesn’t seem like it would have the type of minutes available for Green that the 32-year-old would be looking for either. But the Nuggets could use his two-way play and his high IQ and spot-up ability would fit in well with Denver’s read-and-react offense. If he’d be interested in a lesser role to chase another ring, the Nuggets could be an attractive landing spot.

Wesley Matthews – Another sniper from 3, Matthews is a career 38% shooter from distance, but again, he’s probably set on taking on a bigger role than the one Denver can provide off the bench. The Nuggets could sell him on potentially being a part of their closing lineup and every team in the league could use his shooting.

Trevor Ariza – Ariza brings playoff experience and is a veteran who knows his role. He’s been a strong 3-point shooter for most of his career but fell off a bit with Washington over the second half of last season. It seems like he still has a few good years left in him. Ariza is surely looking to link up with a playoff team this summer and the Nuggets could use his perimeter defense in the postseason.

Taj Gibson – A strong interior defender who can rotate between both forward spots, Gibson isn’t a threat from distance but at this point in his career would seemingly be willing to play a reserve role.

Kevon Looney – Looney really came on during the playoffs for the injury-riddled Warriors and would give the Nuggets some extra punch and rebounding on their frontline.

Minor Splashes

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – A versatile forward who’s a bit of a throwback player, Hollis-Jefferson does a little bit of everything except shoot the 3. He’s 24-years-old and checks in at just 6-foot-7 but would give the Nuggets some more physicality inside.

Ed Davis – Davis had the third-best rebound percentage in the league last season behind Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside among players who averaged at least 15 minutes per game. He’ll be a sneaky good pickup for a playoff team looking for solid minutes off their bench next season.

DeMarre Carroll – A veteran who can contribute on both ends of the floor, Carroll’s a solid defender and a career 36% shooter from three. He would give Denver added depth at both forward spots.

Stanley Johnson – He’s a strong defender but only a career 37% shooter from the field and has never shown that he can produce consistently on the offensive end of the floor. Still, Johnson just turned 23. He might be worth a flier.

Jeff Green – Green’s been overrated so long that he’s now become a bit underrated. The 32-year-old had his best season last year (12.3 points on 48% shooting from the field and 35% from 3) for Washington since his career-year in 2015. He can give teams some consistency off the bench.

James Ennis – Ennis was a strong presence off Houston’s bench over the first half of last season, converting on 37% of his 3s and gave the Rockets a solid defensive presence on the perimeter. But he fell off after a midseason trade to Philadelphia, shooting just 31% from distance over the final 18 games of the regular season. He wasn’t any better in the playoffs.

Cheick Diallo – He provided the Pelicans with some nice energy off their bench and was productive when he was on the floor. Diallo averaged 14 minutes, six points and 5.2 rebounds per game last year.

Anthony Tolliver – Over the past two seasons he’s been what the Nuggets were hoping Trey Lyles was going to be last year. Tolliver, 34, averaged around nine points per game in 2018 and shot 44% from three. In a lesser role last season for Minnesota, the stretch-four averaged only five points per game but still converted on 38% of his 3s.

Iman Shumpert – Shumpert’s a two-way wing who split last season between Sacramento and Houston. He averaged 13.6 minutes per game in the playoffs for the Rockets and shot it well from 3.

Jarred Dudley – Dudley’s a heady veteran who’s helped mentor younger players in his last few landing spots including Brooklyn and Phoenix and can still play a little too. He averaged over 21 minutes per game last season for the Nets and shot 35% from distance.

Thabo Sefolosha – Once one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, Sefolosha’s production has fallen off but he’s still a smart veteran who teams wouldn’t mind having at the end of their bench.

Dante Cunningham – Another veteran forward in the Lyles mold, Cunningham didn’t play a ton for the Spurs last season but when he did still proved he could shoot the 3 (46% from distance).

Greg Monroe – He’d serve his purpose a third center who can play in a pinch if injuries were to hit Denver’s rotation.