Grading the Avalanche's 2019 draft class

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Let’s start with the obvious here: Grading draft classes immediately after they’re built is always kind of a silly proposition. We have no idea how these guys are going to pan out and the draft-day “winners” frequently are not as such five years down the road when a guy like me is writing a “Re-drafting the 2019 draft!” piece because it’s mid-May and we’re trying to keep our readers engaged.

Now that we’ve gotten the truth about that out of the way, let’s talk about these grades! The way I approach this (transparency is important, after all) is that value is determined not by the player’s pre-draft rankings versus the number they were actually selected but rather by a combination of their fit in the organization and their ultimate projected upside.

Players rise and fall in draft classes for a huge swath of reasons. I’m not here to judge where a player gets selected but how that player can help an organization once he does.

Let’s do this!

Bowen Byram, D, Vancouver Giants (WHL) – 4th overall

Boy, am I glad I was wrong. For weeks leading up to the draft, I had reported the Avs were steering away from Byram and more towards the forwards. When their forward target went to Chicago at three, it opened the door for Byram to make his way to Colorado. I said consistently throughout the pre-draft process that Byram was as clean a prospect on defense as you’ll find.

The skill is high-end, the character is great, and the maturity really stands out among his peers. He solidifies Colorado’s defense for years to come and could be a franchise-caliber defenseman for the Avalanche. I’m not totally sold he reaches that kind of ceiling but it’s very realistic to expect he carves out a career as a strong two-way player who combines with Cale Makar to give Colorado a dazzling top pairing (assuming Byram can unseat Sam Girard, which, good luck with that).

Byram also hedges against Girard not taking any major steps forward in the NHL and gives the Avalanche a young trio to die for. If Conor Timmins pans out, that’s a future top four that could give opposing teams nightmares. Even if he doesn’t, Nikita Zadorov and Erik Johnson are certainly going to enjoy the addition of Byram as he helps make all of their jobs easier.

This was a slam dunk of a pick and I love that Colorado didn’t over-prioritize filling that 2C need that exists on the NHL roster today. They’re still drafting for tomorrow, though Byram could be an immediate addition to the blueline, especially if certain deals go down. General manager Joe Sakic said Byram will get every opportunity in training camp to make his case for the NHL right away.

Grade: A+

Alex Newhook, C, Victoria Grizzlies (BCHL) – 16th overall

Here we go. Byram was a totally clean prospect that you need not really worry about. Newhook carries some real risk with very real holes in his game but he is basically Colorado’s identity in prospect form. High-end ceiling, hallmarks are speed and skill, and there are very real warts that could keep both Newhook and Colorado from reaching their ceilings.

Newhook is an unbelievable skater, one of the best in this entire class. His hands, shot, and hockey IQ are all high-end. I get strong Dylan Larkin vibes here. It’s going to take Newhook a couple of NCAA seasons to really round out his overall game but once he does, holy smokes look out. His ability to transition to left wing at U-18s and find success next to Krebs was great to see just in case Colorado solves that 2C problem before Newhook arrives.

I don’t tend to worry too much about who was left on the board once Colorado makes a decision. For me, it’s all about how that kid fits and how he can help. Even with Peyton Krebs on the board, taking Newhook is justifiable in many ways. He could be a legitimate star in the NHL.

Grade: A

Drew Helleson, D, USNTDP (USHL) – 47th overall

Helleson was a guy I was vocal about not being a fan of in the run-up to the draft. Just because Colorado took him doesn’t change how I feel about that pick. Helleson is a guy with a lot of intriguing tools but played a very limited role for the DP last year.

The real question is “Was he in that limited role because of the talent around him (very possible), or was he in that role because he’s simply a limited player?” That’s the crux of the evaluation with Helleson. There’s a lot to like about his game. My favorite aspect is his tenacity. That guy hates when the other team has the puck and he relentlessly seeks to retrieve it, whether by means of the stick or just crushing a fool.

Helleson’s skating will fit in nicely with Colorado but his game is going to take some time to round into form. The offense is a major question mark. He’s off to Boston College to get the polish he needs. The Avs might have to wait a while but he’s a solid defender that can marinate in the pipeline while Colorado’s NHL defense shows out. The Avalanche don’t have a lengthy history of successfully developing this style of player so the onus is on them to change their own history with this pick.

Grade: B-

Matthew Stienburg, C, St. Andrew’s College (CISAA) – 63rd overall

Hoo boy. This was the pick that had Avs fans up in arms after it was made. Once everyone figured out who this kid was by presumably crashing his Elite Prospects page, the disappointment set in right away. I’m less worried about his pre-draft ranking than I am what kind of player he actually is.

He doesn’t seem to fit Colorado’s MO to the slightest. He’s not a great skater, he doesn’t flash major skill upside, and he’s not even particularly big despite playing more of a Tom Wilson-style of game. I don’t mean that in the way that Wilson is perceived around the league as a cheap shot kind of guy; simply that he provides a mean physical element and adds a dash of skill to go along with it.

The jury is VERY much still in doubt about this pick and it certainly stands out as THE question mark of the weekend. This felt like the Cam Morrison pick all over again where the Avs convinced themselves they needed a certain type of player and decided to pull the trigger on an archetype over raw talent. I sure hope this kid makes me feel like a jerk for saying that.

Grade: D

Alex Beaucage, RW, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL) – 78th overall

This selection started a random run on right wings for the Avs. Beaucage is coming off helping lead the Huskies to a Memorial Cup victory and was one of the top goal-scorers on the team. We’ll just start there. He’s a shooter, first and foremost. He’s a guy who is going to fire pucks at the net and do it with a pretty high level of skill.

The rest of Beaucage’s game is why he had to wait as long as he did but the wait could be worth it for the Avalanche. His skating is going to need a lot of work and the Avs’ skate-first approach will either jump him forward or keep him from being a force at the next level. His goal-scoring ability is much-welcomed to an organization that has been overrun by more classic playmaking types than snipers.

This draft class certainly changed that balance and Beaucage is the leader of the pack. He could become a major weapon on the power play down the road. I’m kind of iffy on the player as a whole, though, so I don’t love this pick as much as the rest of them.

Grade: B

Sasha Mutala, RW, Tri-City Americans (WHL) – 140th overall

This was a killer pick in my eyes. Mutala is a player with another level he can get to that he just hasn’t found yet. Maybe he never will. Even if he doesn’t, Mutala can provide the same kind of presence Nick Henry has in the organization as a hard-working right wing with some scoring upside and a bottom-six NHL future if things work out nicely.

With Mutala, though, there’s always the lingering possibility he finds that next level. He’s a guy who works his tail off in trying to improve and has the kind of ability that could make the league look silly for letting him get this far. Simply put, he could be the steal of the entire draft. You could say that about anybody, of course, but Mutala has all the classic markers of a guy that could end up making a front office look like geniuses.

This was a continuation of Colorado’s recent trend of using the fifth round as a major upside play. They did it with Adam Werner (2016), Igor Shvyrev (2017), and Danila Zhuravylov (2018). I’m sure it’s a coincidence they were all picked in the same round but it’s one of the few trends to pull from a team whose drafting is absolutely all over the place, literally and figuratively.

Grade: A+

Luka Burzan, RW, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) – 171st overall

If you’re going to take a second-time draft eligible kid like Burzan, this is the proper range to do it. Too frequently teams can be seduced by 19-year-old breakout seasons and invest higher picks in them and those players can plateau immediately after.

Using a sixth-round pick after Burzan’s breakout year is just a great roll of the dice as they filled a need as well as took a chance on the upside. There’s a legitimate argument to be made for Burzan as simply a late-bloomer and if he continues his upward trajectory, this could be a steal. His skating will give him a leg up on several of the guys in this draft class. His skill puts him in the same kind of company as those drafted in the middle rounds.

Like others in this class, he’s a better shooter than passer and Colorado’s lean on goal-scorers was pretty clear this year. Instead of trying to find a role player here, they took a chance on Burzan’s upward trajectory. I’m always a big fan of that approach in the later rounds.

Grade: B+

Trent Miner, G, Vancouver Giants (WHL) – 202nd overall

Finally! A goalie! There was much speculation about the Avs going after Spencer Knight in round one or Mads Sogaard in round two. Both players were gone before the Avs had a realistic shot at either and a run on goaltenders early meant Colorado was left searching a bit.

They found their target in Miner, a player whose selection elicited several scouts to message me with a fondness for the pick. He’s the kind of gem you can mine (get it?) in the seventh round and find great value. Miner wasn’t the full-time starter for the Giants last year and he’ll compete again with Coyotes draftee David Tendeck for the job next season. Miner outplayed him during the regular season last year and hopes to do it again.

Where he fits in the Avs is pretty obvious. The Avalanche have arguably failed to develop a legitimate NHL starter in the entire time they’ve been in Colorado (you could make an argument for Marc Denis and I’d hear it out). Right now, they have a smorgasbord of goaltenders in Finland, Czech Republic, Russia, and the Swede (Adam Werner) just came across to North America to join the Eagles. Might as well add a CHL kid with huge upside and major talent.

This might have been my favorite day-two pick. Seventh-round picks rarely offer the kind of upside this kid does. If it turns out last year was a flash in the pan and he never comes close to that level again, the Avs are only out the 202nd pick. If he becomes anything more than that, the Avs are on the right side of value.

Grade: A

Class Grade: A-

This is heavily weighted towards the first round because those are the highest chances you get NHL players and the Avs did a great job. They went big and bold and set themselves up wonderfully. If they win a Stanley Cup within five years, this draft class very likely plays a significant role in that success.

It wasn’t just those two, though. The middle round selections are definitely open to doubt but they used their later picks on high-upside gambles that have the kind of intangibles to still turn into valuable players even if they don’t hit their ceilings.

They filled their forward coffers full, they re-shaped their top 10 prospects, and they added a high-end prospect at all three positions.

The class isn’t without its risks, however. Passing on Alex Turcotte and Peyton Krebs could both be situations that come back to haunt Colorado if this is indeed the darkest timeline. There was a lot of legit talent on the board when Colorado went after Helleson but a team can’t think that way. The Stienburg pick will come under fire until he proves us all wrong.