Why Joe Pavelski makes sense for the Avalanche

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When Erik Karlsson surprised many around the league and re-signed with the San Jose Sharks this morning, it sent shockwaves across the NHL. Not only had the free agent market lost by far its best defenseman, but a cap-strapped Sharks team made a massive financial commitment to a player they already sort of had and it may come at the cost of its captain, among others.

Joe Pavelski, currently the captain of the Sharks, is slated to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and the Sharks just made it significantly harder on themselves to keep Pavelski around. This occurred to Matt Larkin of The Hockey News, who immediately connected the dots between San Jose’s salary cap crunch and Pavelski’s upcoming free agency:

If the Karlsson deal ends up pricing Pavelski out of town, I could not see a better suitor for him than the Colorado Avalanche. He is the EXACT player they need, and Avs have the cap space to pursue if he'd listen.

— Matt Larkin (@MLarkinHockey) June 17, 2019

Naturally, this sparked a bevy of reactions from people around the Avalanche and the league itself.

Does Joe Pavelski make sense for the Avalanche? In a lot of ways, yes.

The fact that Pavelski turns 35 on July 11 has created a healthy amount of debate about whether or not it would make sense for Colorado to depart from their “younger faster” motto of the last couple of summers and go for the exact opposite. With Pavelski, though, they’d be getting something they’re sorely lacking beyond their dominant top line: Productive.

Because of Pavelski’s birthday (after July 1), he won’t be eligible for the safety of a 35+ contract, making it far more palatable for a team to offer him a three-year deal in free agency.

I realize this scenario is evoking shades of Jarome Iginla right now but I’d argue the Avalanche ultimately got more value than not out of that contract as he was a 20-goal scorer in the first two years of the deal and was asked to play a leading role on what turned out to be one of the worst teams in modern history in his final year. Barring a major turn of events, the Avs are simply in a significantly more competitive position with Pavelski than they were during the life of the Iginla contract.

Any deal with the Avs would have to come without the shield of a no-movement clause in the final year because of the expansion draft and being forced to protect Pavelski would simply be bad business. That said, Colorado could still offer significant trade protections if need be. There’s a middle ground to be found.

Because of the lack of longer term in a potential Pavelski deal, Colorado isn’t on the hook for half of a decade or more like they could be if they chased a Kevin Hayes or Pavelski’s teammate, Gustav Nyquist. The shorter deal would align with the Avalanche giving significant raises to Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar, who both have their current contracts expiring in two summers. With Pavelski on a three-year deal, there’s only one year of overlap.

That also aligns with a potential timeline on whoever Colorado selects fourth overall this weekend. The expectation is they select a forward and Pavelski can improve Colorado’s Stanley Cup chances without taking away a long-term role for the kid they’re about to use a top-five pick on. With Pavelski in tow, the Avs could exercise uncommon patience with the fourth pick and allow him to develop for two years like they did with Makar. If that player shows up and shows out, ultimately Pavelski could become expendable by the third year of the deal. Without the protections of a 35+ contract, buying him out would be possible and provide actual salary cap relief. But would they even need to?

Pavelski’s never been a great skater and despite the concussion suffered in the playoffs, he’s remained healthy throughout his career. The seven games he missed this past season was the most since he was 26. Durability is a skill and Pavelski has it. What he also has is a knack for scoring goals. A lot of goals.

Pavelski has scored more than 30 goals three of his last five seasons and while he’s coming off a 38-goal season built on an unsustainable shooting percentage (20.2%), he still managed to score 29 and 22 goals in his non-30 goal seasons. He hasn’t scored under 60 points in a full NHL season since his fourth year in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent and productive at what he does.

Part of that goal-scoring skillset was on display in Game 7 of the playoff series between San Jose and Colorado. Pavelski returned and tipped home a puck to give the Sharks a 1-0 lead. The deflection is his bread-and-butter as a goal scorer as he’s developed a reputation as one of the game’s best as standing in front of getting his stick on incoming shots.

Given Colorado’s offense is built around shooting from outside, especially their power play, the addition of Pavelski next to Gabe Landeskog, who had a career year in goal-scoring built off the back of deflections, could make Colorado’s top unit the most lethal in the league. If they’re not going to drastically alter the system of shooting from the outside, why not go get one of the best players at tipping pucks?

Another of Pavelski’s skills that would play immediately in Colorado is his faceoff acumen. He’s predominantly a wing these days but that didn’t stop him from taking 989 faceoffs last year and his 53.2% success rate in the dot would be an astronomical leap forward for a terrible faceoff team. While I’ve said nobody should pay specifically for faceoffs, this really just comes as an added bonus.

Further, San Jose’s commitment to Karlsson only reinforces they’re continuing to go for it right now.  Their cap crunch has left them with just over $12.5M in salary cap space left but still have  Pavelski, Nyquist, Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc, Joonas Donskoi, and Joe Thornton left unsigned. That’s a lot of work to do and not much room to pay for it.

Take Pavelski away from San Jose and add him to Colorado’s lineup for a potential postseason rematch and you can’t help but like the odds for the Avs in that situation, right? Taking away from a direct competitor to improve your own club is a pretty good way to climb the competitive ladder.

There are a few caveats for a potential Colorado pursuit of Pavelski, however. Namely, it shouldn’t be Plan A. Colorado should still do whatever voodoo it takes to convince Artemi Panarin to eschew the beaches and income tax-free land of Florida for Rocky Mountain living. Anders Lee is similar to Pavelski in a lot of ways but six years younger. He would be a priority, too. Pavelski is an intriguing option but he shouldn’t be the centerpiece of their free agency pursuits.

Obviously, the term on a Pavelski deal is going to be key. Whether he gets paid $7M or $8M is irrelevant to me; Colorado has the space to fit whatever his financial demands are under the salary cap. The years simply have to be right. If the Avs could convince Pavelski to take a two-year contract, they’d be big winners. As discussed above, a third year could be worked around but wouldn’t be a death knell. Four or more years would be an indefensible and unnecessary risk. If that’s his market, c’est la vie. If it’s not?

The Avalanche could do a whole lot worse than bringing in Joe Pavelski.