Is Tyson Jost the odd man out?

Let’s begin here with some honest truth: Tyson Jost did this to himself.

Coming off a frustrating rookie season that began with injuries and finished with more questions raised than answered, Jost had an opportunity this past year to quiet the critics and solidify himself as a top-six forward for the Avalanche.

That didn’t happen as he more or less repeated his rookie season but added a midseason demotion to the Colorado Eagles to his resume.

He was sent down to find his confidence and get some puck touches to remind him that he’s pretty good at this hockey thing. The demotion proved fruitful and the tenth overall pick from the 2016 draft returned to the NHL after eight games for the Eagles.

The player the Avs got back from the AHL was significantly different than the one they sent down. He was more confident and his play on the ice showed a significant uptick. He was making plays every night and no longer looked like a man trying to find himself at the highest level. The production was still slow to come, however.

When looking at Jost’s season, it was obvious that even though he set career highs in assists (15) and points (26), he was wildly inconsistent throughout. In the months of October, December, and March he played 39 games and scored just six points. That’s on pace for a 12-point season across 82 games. That’s ghastly. In all the other months, he played 31 games and recorded 20 points, good for a 53-point regular season. That’s good enough to be Colorado’s fourth-highest scoring forward by a wide margin.

Those are two extremely different players. We saw the playoff version of Jost as he scored just four points in 12 games, but goals in the final three games of the series against San Jose. The context here is important, however, because Jost played on the fourth line in the entire Calgary series and his shot metrics were dominant even though the points weren’t there.

When injuries struck against the Sharks, Jost moved up to center Colorado’s second line and even though his minutes didn’t take a significant leap, the quality of the players around him did and he ended up scoring four points in the seven-game series, with the three goals in Games 5-7 being a key factor in Colorado remaining competitive despite the top line going cold.

At the end of the day, points pay in the NHL and Jost simply didn’t have enough to demand the Avalanche hand over any kind of promotion to him. His process was certainly improved in the second half of the season but without the points to follow, where should Colorado management feel comfortable slotting him into their lineup next year?

Jost’s time on ice in his rookie season was a respectable 14:38, good for ninth among forwards on the Avs. That dropped down to 13:00 this past year, putting him at 11th among forwards. That’s going the wrong direction in the eyes of head coach Jared Bednar.

They’ve given him two full years to prove himself and while the team around him has rapidly improved, he simply hasn’t. As the Avalanche enter an offseason with a clear-cut goal in mind of competing for the Stanley Cup next season, it’s obvious the baby steps that have been acceptable in previous years aren’t necessarily going to fly moving forward.

Jost was, overall, a disappointment this year and the team’s dogged pursuit of Kevin Hayes before his trade to Philadelphia as their future second-line center drives home they’re done waiting on Jost to live up to his potential.

That doesn’t mean they’re giving up on Jost, of course, because he’s just turned 21 and is entering the final year of his ELC. While he certainly hasn’t been what they were hoping for so far, he’s shown himself a capable NHL player at the very least. He’s worth continuing to wait on but there’s no way they can reliably slot him into their second line at the start of next season and feel comfortable they’re going to get the requisite production to keep him there.

While the Avalanche could tailor the situation to maximize his potential by dropping Gabriel Landeskog or Mikko Rantanen next to Jost, that’s a lot of trust for a player with just 48 points in the last two seasons.

The Avalanche are expected to be aggressive in free agency this summer and Hayes still hasn’t signed an extension with the Flyers. Until he’s off the market, you can expect Colorado to remain interested. If the Avalanche ultimately misses on Hayes and instead bring in a wing to bolster their top six, Jost may be looking at his final chance to prove himself as a top-six center.

Carl Soderberg was productive last season but going into the final year of his contract at 33-years-old, it’s the smart play to ask him to hold down Colorado’s third line next to Matt Calvert and (likely) J.T. Compher. Alexander Kerfoot has produced over 80 points in the last two seasons, making him an easy choice to slot somewhere in the top six. This leaves Colorado with room to acquire one wing in UFA and give Jost another shot at proving he can handle that job. If they acquire a wing and center, however, where does that leave Jost?

Further complicating matters is Jost has proven himself a much more capable center than wing so far in his career as playing him down the middle brought out the best he had to offer in both his offensive and defensive games. He’s simply the better player at the pivot…but is he good enough?

The Avalanche also have the fourth pick and the expectation is they will target a forward with that selection. Whoever that player ends up being is very likely at least one year away from cracking Colorado’s roster so let’s say the draft-day decisions won’t play a role in this situation for right now.

What Colorado does in free agency could very well determine how high the mountain Jost has to climb next season gets. As Kerfoot and Compher solidified their roles last year, Jost remains one of the biggest question marks on the roster.

Will 2019-20 season be his last chance to prove he’s better than he’s shown so far? How Jost answers that question will be one of the keys to how far Colorado goes in their quest for the Stanley Cup next season.