Does everybody feel foolish now, rooting hard for the Ottawa Senators to lose all season long?
The Avalanche proved again Tuesday night that owning the rights to the lottery pick of the worst team in the NHL doesn’t matter much when it comes to getting that cherished top pick, as the Avs struck out with the ping-pong balls and will pick fourth in the NHL draft this June.
That’s as low as the Avs could have picked, just like it was in 2017 when, despite a 48-point season, they fell to fourth. That pick turned out to be Cale Makar, so it doesn’t mean the Avs won’t get a damn good player with this pick.
But there’s no question that this was a big disappointment for an Avs club and its fans, who had visions of Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko in mind. Maybe because the NHL was burned so badly by teams that truly did tank in the past to finish last and get the top pick (Pittsburgh admitted they did it in 1984 to get Mario Lemieux), the NHL has instituted a lottery system that gives the last-place team higher odds of picking out of the top three than being in it (the actual chance of the Avs getting the fourth pick was 50.4 percent). The chance that they would get the No. 1 pick were 18.5 percent.
Joe Sakic didn’t react one way or the other when NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly turned over the card with his team’s logo on it for the fourth selection. When the Chicago Blackhawks moved from their No. 12 position in the odds to a guarantee of the top three, that was a bad moment for the Avs’ No. 1 chances.
The fact that the Avs won’t get a Hughes or a Kakko (barring moving up in the draft via trade) means they might have to get more aggressive in the free-agent market this summer, for guaranteed help from a top-six forward. Scoring depth, beyond the first line, remains an issue with the club, and not having a Hughes or a Kakko to count on means the Avs will have to either perhaps be more patient with that first pick than they expected, or have to go out and acquire more immediate veteran help.
For more on who the experts believe are the top players beyond Hughes or Kakko, this article is a great source of information.
0 Comments (18 conversations)
mfisk
To quote Bob “Bulldog” Briscoe from Frasier- “This Stinks! This is Total BS!”
pixelrebirth
I had fully expected 4th overall…. it’s just how things go in life. I’m disappointed, but it wasn’t our pick to begin with. 4th and in the playoffs is still pretty awesome. We should get a good player, and it may even save us some salary in the future. Max cap for Kaapo or Hughes would be a rough pill to swallow long term. Im hoping now we slam dunk #4 like our pick of Makar.
Unit5
This is exactly how I felt yesterday and will feel tomorrow. But today I want to throw a rock through someone’s window.
winchester4261
“Does everybody feel foolish now, rooting hard for the Ottawa Senators to lose all season long?”
No one should feel foolish. Because Ottawa finished in last place, the Avs were guaranteed the 4th pick at worst. It could have been a lost worse if Ottawa had managed to sneak up the standings.
Sunfunbun
No one should feel foolish hoping to land a chance at a great talent at the top of the draft. Just because we missed, the reasoning we should feel foolish at all is ridiculous.
KCRybek
Draft byram, trade Barrie for a winger. Who am I kidding
Gurn Blanston
It’s rigged.
Nels
Seems likely.
Adrian Dater
AuthorTrue
gerontion
Hey Dater, with Hughes and Kakko seemingly out of reach, who would you take at #4? I personally would be happy with either Byram or Cozens.
Cameron
Quite likely
JD16
Utter BS. I would feel this way even if it wasn’t the Avs who were involved. Two of the last 3 lotteries (regardless of it being the Avs) have fallen THREE spots. I feel worse for a team like LA who dropped to 5. They really could use a Kakko or Hughes to jumpstart an aging team. Either the NHL makes the odds higher with still allowing a team to drop 3 places. Or they need to keep the odds where a team can only drop 1. So stupid. Sorry for the paragraph.
Hockeyhead
Definitely disappointing! The hockey gods are still making us pay for moving up and getting Mack in 2013. Glad we took Mack vs Jones and Barkov. Still worth it to cheer on Ottawa’s last place finish so we didn’t go lower than the 4th pick. How do you think LA and Detroit fans are feeling right now? AD thanks for the link on the top 15, I like the looks of Dach and Cozens. Are they Good skaters? How do they rate in their two way game, etc. Byram also looks good. Maybe not a bad idea to draft Byram if you can pull off a good trade with Barrie for a quality top six forward who is a guaranteed point producer like Barrie is. . What do you guys think about that one? But like you say, we really need help in our top six forward group so drafting a forward is probably the smart move. Especially since Makar is on the way. This off season will be extremely interesting and important for the future of the franchise.
ColoradoCartography
Teams know we suck at drafting so that’s why we have so many picks. Who cares about 5 picks in the first 70 or whatever.
We don’t need picks, we need players. We just look like morons again because the league knows we suck at drafting so they give us picks knowing we just burn them.
It’s always something…our strategy can’t keep being next year or wait till this or wait for this guy or wait for all our picks or wait for development it’s always next year next year next year…
We can’t wait 3 years for this batch of draft picks to arrive,
In 3 years this is when we become Minnesota or Nashville and too f n old ….EJ is 34,
Barrie 30, Landy 29, Compher 27, Kerfoot 27, Grubi 30, Calvert 32, Cole 33
In 23-24…Mac will command what…15m 18m?
Our window is the next 3 years and this draft class outside of 4 is meaningless.
DP10
I am reminded of the story of the Chinese farmer and his horse…
But in all seriousness, 2 years ago the lottery surely added insult to injury. This year I can barely muster a shrug ??♂️ So we traded Dutchy (a 3rd overall pick in 2009) for a 4th pick and a few key components. I think the Avs capitalized 99% on that trade! So now we won’t get Kaapo or Hughes…at least we won’t have to deal with the outsize expectations or the cap implications. 2 years ago we lamented having to settle for Makar…now we are all secretly hoping that he will don the Avs shirt next week. Again.. I am reminded of the Chinese farmer and his horse..there probably aren’t many things in life where this story is as applicable as the NHL draft… in a year when a lowly 58th pick will be crowned MVP no less!
ColoradoCartography
Avs draft picks from 2009-2017
That are still playing for the Avs
Not drafted in 1st 10 picks
Out of 59 picks
1 pick is playing for the Avs
Tyson Barrie
If we don’t get a top 10 pick…we don’t draft good enough to be happy about draft picks.
Picks 16, 47, 63 & 78 = 0 when we don’t convert to players.
Chris DeMott
Yes, but the scouting staff has changed so… maybe things improve.
Chris DeMott
On the other hand the 3rd round pick from Ottawa is still almost a 2nd round pick. Also, I wonder if Chicago might bite in taking Barrie for their Third overall? This opens up the ability to take Byram and an elite forward.
jpwheels
hooobaby…there’s lots of pissed off Avs fans tonight!
But I’m not sure why because the +50% odds of the Avs getting the fourth pick were plastered all over the hockey web.
Look, I can understand the disappointment and frustration. But the lottery system seems to be working just as it was designed.
I don’t like the massive jumps in draft positions that are possible, but the odds of that happening are pretty damned low.
If you’d bet against the moves CHI & the NYR made every time, you’d come out way ahead.
ThePhotoGorilla
Certainly a frustrating process, especially when better teams can jump 5+ spots. NHL should keep the lottery, but limit the number of positions a team can move (say, 3-4) in either direction from their finish.
Pucklehead
Agree. The current lottery system is rotten which is another reason hockey fans despise Bettman.
David C McKinnis
Meh. The Senators were just coming off a conference final season. I don’t think anyone was thinking they would crash so hard and they were looking at trading away a 16 and up 1st round pick. I’ll bet the Avalanche were looking at that too. The 4th pick is a pretty nice return.
mladen
The procedure is terrible and unfair to the teams who are really bad and need help. They don’t need this clusterfuck of a system to prevent tanking.
Pucklehead
Freaking big market teams like the 3 ahead of the avs should automatically drop at least 1 spot in the lottery
dudleyconrad
I was initially mad since I figured we’d have better luck this year than the Makar year. But ultimately, as alluded to, this wasn’t our pick and it’s still a number 4.
Every mock draft I’ve seen has us taking Cozens, Dach or Turcotte after the top three go in order. I think we could take any of those three and still end up trading Barrie at the draft; we’d never get a better return. Maybe it depends on how Timmins progresses in the offseason health-wise.
Lefseeter
Can Hughes still go to college? For four years and free agency?
Raz
Lol the comments here are killing me. I don’t get all the depression over drafting 4th on a pick Super Joe pulled in a ridiculous package that has already paid dividends. I will never understand sports fans here in Denver.
And yes, people should feel bad. Rooting for a team to lose so that we can prosper? That’s just bad sportsmanship.
This actually makes things more interesting to me now. We’re not just being granted more young talent to take the team to the cup. We’re going to have to make smart moves in the off season and draft well with our 4th overall to keep our momentum going. That is way more exciting to me than being handed everything on a silver platter.
We have playoff hockey to watch Thursday for the second year in a row. And we get to watch Makar perform miracles on the ice against the Pioneers in the Frozen Four to boot.
I love this time of year.
GO AVS!!!
jbame
I don’t feel bad at all and will continue to root against Ottawa. Their fans are pathetic celebrating that the puck dropped to 4th even though that’s the exact same pick they had last year. Their fans hate Colorado so I hate them. May they never have success.