Drew Lock's arm belongs in round one, but is he worth a top-10 pick?

Drew Lock and Daniel Jones are the two headliners in a senior QB class that’s lacking a bit of star power. Yet, after a full week of scouting them at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama the two ended the week in very different places.

While Lock checked off all the boxes; showing off his arm strength, athleticism, the ability to throw on the run and handle pressure, Jones faltered.

It might seem odd given Jones ended the week as the Senior Bowl MVP, taking his North team on a pair of scoring drives that put his team in the lead for good, but lacking the same type of natural talents that Lock—or even Jarrett Stidham or Tyree Jackson have—Jones’ consistency was problematic.

Not only did Jones throw two interceptions on Wednesday’s closed practice, but he also missed throws you’d expect a first-round caliber quarterback to make all week, showing a lack of accuracy on his deep ball and underwhelming velocity on sideline throws, confirming his below average—for NFL standards—arm strength. More troubling was how Jones, who on tape was typically strong under pressure with an unwavering pocket presence, was too slow processing information and would’ve been sacked twice in 11-on-11 drills in the final practice if defenders were allowed to hit the QB.

His issues throwing to his left weren’t lost on us when watching from the Senior Bowl sideline, nor was it lost on us that Jones shut down media availability a day into the event after coming off as reserved and unimpressive when talking on a podium.

The Broncos did their due diligence and had a scout talk to Jones down in Mobile, but his performance just wasn’t what you’d expect from a potential candidate for a top-10 pick.

As for Lock, he didn’t light the world on fire, either, after the first day of practice, where he looked like he was a class above the rest. He, too, threw a pick in the final day of practice, with poor ball placement on a deep back-shoulder attempt that lacked touch. His footwork is still a work in progress, and he didn’t always get the ball out quickly when forced to make throws without getting his grip on the laces. His accuracy, while generally looking improved, wavered at times, lacking the type of consistency you’d like to see to confidently pound the table for the kid as your next franchise QB. His accuracy issues are a big deterrent to his stock and the main reason why he sits behind both Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray on our draft board. 

With all of that said, Lock did some of his best work in 11-on-11 work, and in the game when under duress, a huge sign for a quarterback who decided to stay in school after his 2017 season where his ability to handle pressure was one of his biggest concerns.

He’s still inconsistent, but Lock has made major strides under pressure and when throwing to his secondary reads, all while taking on a bigger load of the offense under new Missouri offensive coordinator Derek Dooley, who seemingly took the SEC’s second-most prolific passer in conference history’s game to the next level.

It wasn’t the type of Senior Bowl performance that Carson Wentz had a few years back, taking his draft stock from an upside pick in round two to being the second player taken in the entire class, but Lock confirmed his talent and eased questions that have risen from his last two years on tape, simply doing that was a big win.

The Mizzou QB remained inconsistent, threw passes he’d like to have back and didn’t announce himself as a sure-fire franchise QB, but he confirmed his first-round pedigree.

In 2019, where quarterbacks under rookie contracts are the most valuable commodity an NFL franchise can have, that’ll likely mean he’ll go high, the top-10 seems like a guarantee, and if teams trade up, the Denver Broncos 10th pick might not be enough to ensure his talents. 

In a draft loaded with defensive studs, trading up for Lock or simply taking him at 10 wouldn’t be a great value, but it’ll be the price of doing business for a signal-caller that has the makings of a long-term starter with the upside for more. Whether the Broncos can stomach taking a pick that isn’t a great value is a different question.

Lock certainly made his case while Jones seemingly took himself out of the running.

The rest of the crop in Mobile

On the South team—who new Broncos quarterbacks coach T.C. McCartney got hands-on work with—Jarrett Stidham showed off his natural talent, but the hype surrounding him after Senior Bowl week might be overblown.

He looked competent, is athletic, has a compact release and ample arm strength to fit in the NFL. That said, the narrative around him after the Senior Bowl has been a bit surprising as he remained inconsistent and was slow to process information—two things that doomed him against some of the best competition he faced in 2018.

At the end of the day, Stidham helped his stock, reminding everyone why he was so highly regarded coming into the season, though he didn’t make any jaw-dropping throws, didn’t impress in interviews, and while he showed improved accuracy, Stidham missed enough passes to still question whether he’s ready for the NFL spotlight.

Gardner Minshew looked really polished for an air raid QB coming from Mike Leach’s system. He looked comfortable under center and accurate, but his arm strength didn’t show out, or rather, didn’t overwhelm anyone who had doubts about his arm coming in. He looked more like a solid backup rather than a diamond in the rough and it’s legitimate to wonder if his stock rose all that much after his showing in Mobile.

Will Grier came in with some real day-two projections and just killed his stock, showing a complete lack of arm talent all week. In the game Grier was also reckless, throwing up dangerous deep bombs that he was lucky didn’t get intercepted. Given those were his two biggest concerns, the fact that he only confirmed how big those issues are is problematic. A pick higher than the third day of the draft would be too rich for the West Virginia product at this point. 

Another QB that confirmed ‘he is who we thought he was’ is Buffalo’s Tyree Jackson, the long, lanky QB with a rocket for an arm. The flashes of arm strength were there in limited doses, but he also looked completely lacking in touch and woefully inaccurate. Considering that those were his biggest areas of concern entering the week, he really didn’t do anything to help his stock. Jackson looked more suited for the baseball diamond as a hard-throwing reliever than a quarterback with all the nuances that he’s missing in his game. 

NC State’s Ryan Finley is a name the draft world has had their eyes on for two years now and looked polished and consistent, showing off good ball placement and accuracy. He didn’t blow anyone away with his natural talent but he at least seemed to help his stock. Finley was steady for the most part but didn’t wow anyone with his throws or interviews. The same could be said about Penn State’s Trace McSorley.

The Broncos, like the rest of the NFL, came into the week looking to be impressed and outside of Lock, the week in Mobile only confirmed what the tape showed.

Now, as they dig into the juniors who’ve declared, the real fun begins.