There were two words uttered about Justin Simmons on Wednesday that you would never have expected to hear said about someone playing better than perhaps any safety in the NFL.
“Justin sucks.”
But before he could take a breath, Kareem Jackson, Simmons’ safety partner, made it clear he was being facetious.
“Nah, I’m just playing,” he said, smiling.
“Just playing,” of course, is what has propelled Simmons to elite status in the last two seasons. Even before then, he showed glimpses of greatness in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, even scoring a touchdown at Miami in 2017 on an interception return when he was pressed into slot-cornerback duty because of injuries in the defensive backfield.
Simmons is the first Bronco with at least four interceptions in consecutive seasons since Champ Bailey in 2005 and 2006. With one more interception to add to the four he has this year — including three in the last four games — he will become the first Broncos safety in 15 years with a 5-pick campaign.
“Justin’s instincts are excellent,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said Monday, a day after his end-zone interception clinched the Broncos’ 20-13 win over the Miami Dolphins. “That was one of the things I noticed about him when we got here back in 2019. He’s progressed beautifully along those lines as he has grasped more of a command of the coverages we play in our overall scheme.
“That’s something that will continue to improve, although he’s playing at a high level right now. I think he’ll continue to improve in that area, and it’ll result in more big plays for him.”
So, when you look at Simmons and why the Broncos need to keep him, don’t just see what he is right now. See the fact that Fangio believes there is bigger and better in front of him with improvement.
Now, one must confront the business of the moment.
Because the Broncos and Simmons did not come to terms on a contract extension after the Broncos placed the franchise tag on him in March, the team is placed into a conundrum that will prove costly — either in dollars or in losing one of their best players.
Earlier this season, Arizona signed safety Budda Baker to a 4-year contract with an average per-year value of $14.75 million. In terms of average annual value, Baker is now the highest-paid safety in the NFL.
Becoming the first $15-million-a-year safety is a possibility for Simmons, even in the current financial landscape. The loss of revenues due to the pandemic means that the salary cap will likely sit at $175 million next year; this figure is the lowest it can go, per negotiations earlier this year between the NFL and NFL Players Association. But the handful of contracts given out in recent months to players like Baker, Baltimore offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and others shows that elite players will still get paid; the consequences are more likely to be absorbed by second- and third-tier free agents next spring.
So, barring an injury, a trip to the open market for Simmons would mean a visit with the Brinks truck.
The Broncos could place a second consecutive franchise tag on Simmons, but left tackle Garett Bolles’ contract situation comes into play there.
A long-term extension for Bolles would free up that franchise tag. But like Simmons, Bolles has the No. 1 ranking for his position in Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Bolles’ agent, Chase Callahan, will surely cite the PFF ranking in making the case for his client, and having such a distinction means possessing the confidence that if the Broncos don’t write the check, someone on the open market will.
The second tag for Simmons would cost the Broncos $13,729,200, based on it being 120 percent of his franchise-tag value for this year. Tolerable — but only if Bolles gets his deal, because losing either Simmons and Bolles could constitute a significant step backward.
Something else also matters, although it is about franchise culture rather than the team of the moment: It’s that Simmons has carved his name into the Broncos’ storied history at safety.
From original Bronco Austin “Goose Gonsoulin” to Simmons and Jackson, the Broncos’ safety legacy is perhaps the richest in the sport. It includes Hall of Famers (Steve Atwater and Brian Dawkins), Ring of Famers who perhaps deserve more recognition (Dennis Smith, John Lynch, Billy Thompson), players who saw time at cornerback and safety and carved out their niches in both (Steve Foley, Tyrone Braxton) and others who didn’t play as long or didn’t attract as much national recognition, but played well (T.J. Ward, Darian Stewart, Kenoy Kennedy, Nick Ferguson, Bernard Jackson, Mike Harden).
No position has a stronger history in orange and blue than safety.
And Simmons is the current keeper of the flame.
“To be honest, I think he’s gotten better,” Jackson said. “We all know how good he was last year. For him to take strides and be even better this year just shows what type of guy and what type of player he is with the work he puts in in the offseason.
“It’s a luxury for us to have him on this defense and him patrolling the back end with the ability that he has. It definitely makes my job easier as well as the rest of the guys on defense. It’s incredible to play alongside him and to see him in live action and the things he does on a week-to-week basis.”
And if the best is yet to come for Simmons, the Broncos need to reach a deal — even if it makes No. 31 into the No. 1 safety in compensation, and not just performance.
