Are the Nuggets in pole position to sign Jerami Grant?

The first domino in the Nuggets’ offseason has fallen. Jerami Grant is declining his $9.3 million player option for the 2020-21 season and becoming a free agent, according to Chris Haynes

The decision by Grant, a former second-round pick who’s in line for the biggest pay day of his career, is hardly a surprise. Grant set himself up for a substantial raise after a breakout performance during the Nuggets’ 2020 playoff run. Since Denver’s season ended in the Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets’ front office has been charting their offseason plans under the belief that Grant would opt out. Brining back Grant is the Nuggets’ top priority this offseason, a team source recently told DNVR.

President of Basketball Operations Connelly has also indicated that the Nuggets would like to bring back as many of their upcoming free agents as possible, a group that includes Grant, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee and Torrey Craig.

“In a perfect would we’d like to bring the lion’s share of our team back,” Connelly said during his end-of-season media address.

“We’ve had a lot of success with continuity. We believe in the guys in our locker room. I think when you look at each and every guy that’s free, they bring something to the table.”

Grant will have suitors when free agents can officially negotiate new contracts starting on  Nov. 20 at 4 p.m. MT. He’s only 26-years-old, about to enter the prime of his career, and just demonstrated that he can be a valuable contributor in a playoff environment. Grant guarded everyone from Donovan Mitchell to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to LeBron James and Anthony Davis throughout the 2020 playoffs. Offensively, he ran hot and cold as a three-point shooter, but during the regular season Grant shot 39% from distance for the second-consecutive year.

Another reason why Grant’s value went up after the bubble: teams know how versatile he is now. Grant played almost exclusively power forward during the season but started 16 of Denver’s 19 playoff games at small forward. More on-court versatility means more money in today’s NBA.

Here’s who could be chasing Grant over the next week:

Atlanta Hawks

What they have to spend: ≈ $44 million

Why Atlanta would want Grant: One of the worst kept secrets around the league is that the Hawks really want to make the playoffs next season. To climb that mountain, Atlanta will have to upgrade its roster. While the Hawks already have a starting-caliber power forward in John Collins under contract for next year, he’s extension eligible this offseason and isn’t the greatest long-term fit next to Clint Capela. Grant is a much more suitable frontcourt partner. Grant could also reunite with Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce who was an assistant in Philadelphia when Grant was drafted by the 76ers in 2014. The two have a strong relationship.

Detroit Pistons

What they have to spend: ≈ $30 million

Why Detroit would want Grant: The Pistons might be left holding the bag in free agency if Christian Wood bolts for greener pastures and Blake Griffin gets dangled in trade talks. Then again, it could be setting up as a rebuilding year for Detroit ahead of a loaded 2020 draft. But the Pistons love to stay relevant and new GM Troy Weaver could make his mark in Detroit by going all-in for Grant. Weaver was a high ranking executive in the Thunder front office when Grant played in Oklahoma City from 2016-19.

Phoenix Suns

What they have to spend: ≈ $18 million

Why Phoenix would want Grant: Hot on the heels of their 8-0 run in the seeding round (which still didn’t lead to a playoff appearance) the Suns want to make the collective leap next season. Step 1 was made Monday when Phoenix reportedly swung a deal for Chris Paul. Step 2 could be adding a capable role player like Grant to round out the Suns’ starting five. If Phoenix really want to go all-in, Grant would be an ideal complimentary fit next to a Paul-Devin Booker-Deandre Ayton core.

*If the Paul trade is executed Monday, it will leave the Suns with only their $9.3 million mid-level exception available. Grant’s out of Phoenix’s price range if that’s the case.

Miami Heat

What they have to spend: ≈ $21 million

Why Miami would want Grant: The Heat would have to let free agents Jae Crowder and Goran Dragic walk to open up the necessary cap space for Grant, who would mesh well in Miami’s frontcourt next to Bam Adebayo. Grant’s also a no-nonsense grinder who fits into the Heat’s culture. But with their eyes on Giannis Antetokounmpo and the 2021 free agent class, I don’t see Miami as a likely suitor unless the Heat try to sign Grant to their $9.3 million mid-level exception. Grant will ultimately fetch more than that though.

New York Knicks

What they have to spend: ≈ $41 million

Why New York would want Grant: The Knicks could open up around $41 million in cap room this summer as long as they let most of their free agents walk. Would New York then go all-in on Grant? While he’s the type of player you want around your franchise during a rebuild, Grant isn’t the big-time needle mover that suddenly makes the Knicks relevant again. It’s tough to see this one happening unless New York make a huge overpay, which you can never rule out.

Denver Nuggets

What they have to spend: ≈28 million (under the luxury tax)

Why Denver would want Grant: The central reason why I think the Nuggets and Grant come to terms is that Denver can offer what no other team can: a big pay day along with a chance to compete for a championship. The Nuggets can also afford to pay Grant his going rate, which could come in at around $14-16 million per Mike Singer,  stay under the luxury tax threshold, and then turn their attention to their other free agents. There’s mutual interest between the two parties and Grant was happy in Denver last season. He enjoyed playing in Denver’s free-flowing offensive system compared the ISO-centric attack Grant watched in Oklahoma City while he was Russell Westbrook’s teammate. Grant’s also a quiet locker room personality which fits with the Nuggets.

There’s pressure on Denver to extend a competitive offer to Grant. If the Nuggets lost him, they’d be facing a cavernous hole at power forward which Denver would have to fill with either a Millsap/Plumlee timeshare or by poaching someone from an underwhelming free agent pool. Even if a rival franchise outbids Denver for Grant, what the Nuggets have going for them seems like it would trump an extra million or two that another team could offer.

*All salary figures via ESPN