Aaron Nesmith could be a natural fit in the Nuggets' Jokic-Ball system

The Nuggets currently hold the No. 22 pick in the NBA Draft. Over the next month, the DNVR Nuggets crew will examine who Denver may pick with that selection. Make sure to mark your calendar for Wednesday, November 18, the night of the draft and DNVR Nuggets Draft Day LIVE streaming on Periscope and YouTube.”

Who is Aaron Nesmith?

There are a few prerequisites to thriving in the Nuggets’ Jokic-Ball system. To play alongside Nikola Jokic and excel you have to be a high IQ player. You must be able to move and cut intelligently off the ball and screen to free both yourself and others for scoring opportunities. The best Jokic-Ball players also make the defense respect them from three.

Aaron Nesmith showed over the last two years at Vanderbilt that he could have the intangibles to fit into the Nuggets’ read-and-react offensive attack. Nesmith was Vanderbilt’s reading scorer last season at 23 points per game but understands how to play as a link in a connected offensive chain. He’s a good off-ball screener and knows how to use picks to get himself and his team open threes. He also takes smart shots, plays mostly unselfish basketball and keeps the ball moving within an offense.

At 6-foot-6 with a 6-10 wingspan, Nesmith is a long-armed guard who’s projected to go in the middle of the first round. The 21-year-old played 14 games for Vanderbilt and head coach Jerry Stackhouse last season before a stress fracture in his right foot, which could cause him to drop a bit from his mid-first round projection, ended his sophomore year in January. Before the injury, Nesmith was looking like one of the more improved players in college basketball.

Strengths

• Three-point shooting: Nesmith is arguably the best three-point shooter in the draft. He’s comfortable shooting it both off screens and off the dribble. He could speed up his release a bit.
• Great at playing his role. Good screener and off-ball mover. Could be a plug-and-play option next season at the NBA level as a catch-and-shoot role player.
• High IQ player who competes on the defensive end.

Weaknesses

• He’s a good athlete but not an elite one. Not a big-time leaper at the rim.
• Could struggle defending quicker guards. He’ll be better matched up on twos and threes.
• Doesn’t currently boast a ton of creation ability off the bounce. Could be limited to just a shooter when he enters the league.

NBA Comparison: Buddy Hield but a better defender

How does Nesmith fit with the Nuggets?

Offense

Remember how Malik Beasley used to come off the bench and inject life into the Nuggets’ offense with his three-point shooting and energy? I could see Nesmith playing a similar role in Denver.

Nesmith’s calling card in the NBA, at least initially, will be his three-point shooting. He’s one of, if not the best shooter in the class and was the most efficient catch-and-shoot player in college basketball last season. Nesmith only played in 14 games last year but was one of only two players in college (Tyler Hagedom) to attempt at least 100 threes and shoot better than 50% from beyond the arc.

Nesmith shot 52% from distance on a monster 8.2 attempts per game and he’s the only player in Sports Reference’s college database (since 1992-93) to shoot over 50% from three and attempt at least eight triples per game in a season, albeit it was a shortened one. He should be a very, very effective shooter in the NBA and teams shouldn’t be able to go under screens or dribble hand-offs against him.

Nesmith’s intangibles fit with what the Nuggets like to do on the offensive end of the floor as well. He’s great at relocating around the three-point line when he gives up the ball and is a willing screener. Listening to Nesmith review his own film, he recognizes that sometimes the best way for him to get open as a shooter is to set a screen. You love to hear that from a guard that averaged 23 per game last season. I’m not sure if his tape screams future All-Star, but he has the tools to be a solid role player for years to come.

Defense

I’m curious to see how Nesmith impacts the game defensively at the next level. He’s a willing defender, which is step one. But he’s not an ultra quick-twitch athlete which could hurt him on the ball.

Still, Nesmith is a smart, high IQ player who you can tell pays close attentions to opponent’s scouting reports. His size and length should allow him to guard multiple positions too. At the least, Nesmith should be a very good team defender whose instincts can help force turnovers.