If the Broncos reach these numbers, they have a chance to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

From the final day of 2017 to now, Patrick Mahomes has started 42 games for the Kansas City Chiefs, including five postseason contests.

His accomplishments at a young age are well-documented — and perhaps enough to leave fans of other teams in the AFC West bolting for a bottle of Pepto-Bismol at the thought of having him leading the Chiefs for the foreseeable future. The statistics are mind-blowing, but for those in the “QB wins” camp of analysis, the Chiefs’ 33 wins in Mahomes’ first 42 starts would give them an average of 12.6 wins and 3.4 losses per 16 games.

And even if you consider only the regular season, the Chiefs’ 29 wins in Mahomes’ 37 starts are the most for any quarterback in that time frame of starts since the AFL-NFL merger, matching the Raiders with Ken Stabler, the Dolphins with Dan Marino and the Rams with Kurt Warner, according to data compiled via pro-football-refernece.com. All of those quarterbacks, by the way, are in the Hall of Fame, and only Warner has matched Mahomes by leading his team to that many wins while tacking on an MVP award, a Super Bowl ring and a Super Bowl MVP trophy before having two and a half seasons’ worth of starts.

Mahomes creates conundrums that few defenses have been able to answer — and even then, it’s a matter of containment, rather than stopping him and the Chiefs in their tracks. Only once in those 42 starts have the Chiefs failed to score at least 23 points — when the Colts held them to 13 last year in an upset at Arrowhead Stadium.

For perspective, the Chiefs have as many games with 23 or more points in Mahomes’ 42 starts as the Broncos do in their last 91 regular-season or playoff games.

This year, they can win on the ground just like they can via the air. And as Mahomes has shown in his career you can have him and the Chiefs properly defended and his off-script abilities still allow him to make the play.

“First of all, the thing you’re mentioning is you have to prepare for the first play, and you have to prepare for the second play,” Broncos defensive coordinator Ed Donatell said. “When it starts to be [break down] and guys are moving around, we have to be tight in our coverage. We have to keep playing and we have to play longer in the down. We’ve put that in our practice.”

But there is more to keep in mind. With Mahomes and the Chiefs, it’s all about trying to give yourself the best odds — to turn being a long shot into a fighting chance. So, what statistical benchmarks will reveal whether the Broncos have a viable shot at victory?

MAHOMES’ COMPLETION PERCENTAGE:

Kansas City has yet to lose a game in which Mahomes completes more than 72.0 percent of his passes; the Chiefs are 9-0 in this scenario. Kansas City is also 20-3 when Mahomes hits the 65-percent mark in completion percentage. In those losses, Mahomes and the offense can hardly be considered culpable; the Chiefs averaged 37.0 points per game in those defeats.

So if you want to give yourself a fighting chance, you must limit Mahomes to a completion percentage of under 58.0 percent. Ten teams have done this, most recently the Raiders in Week 5, who held him to a career-low figure of 51.2 percent. Kansas City’s record in these games is 5-5. But part and parcel of this was having enough firepower to outscore the Chiefs; it was often necessary, as Kansas City has averaged 29.6 points per game when Mahomes has a sub-58 completion percentage.

PASSER RATING:

Don’t read too much into passer rating, and don’t get your hopes up if Mahomes’ figure in this statistic is pedestrian. The Chiefs are 9-1 when Mahomes posts a rating below 89.0 — a winning percentage of .900 that is actually higher than their rate when Mahomes’ rating is 110.0 or better (20-5, .800). They’re also 21-6 when his rating is north of 100.0.

But do pay attention to how efficient Drew Lock is against the Chiefs defense. Opponents are 5-7 when they post a passer rating of at least 100.0 against a Mahomes-led Chiefs team. That record drops to 3-9 for a rating between 75.0 and 99.9 and 1-17 for a sub-75.0 rating.

RUN FREQUENCY:

Some of this is a function of the Chiefs often working from ahead during Mahomes’ career. But you also cannot ignore the fact that the Chiefs are a perfect 32-0 when they run the football on at least 32.5 percent of their snaps during Mahomes’ starts — and 1-9 when they don’t. Their 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2 was the only exception to this.

Last week in Buffalo, the Chiefs ran more often than at any other point in the Mahomes era: on 63.0 percent of their snaps. Furthermore, their Week 1 win over Houston is the only other time with Mahomes at QB to see them run on more than half of their snaps. Their newfound ability to take the run when the opponent gives it to them adds another layer to their effectiveness.

Meanwhile, the more you can run against the Chiefs, the better your chances. Kansas City is 2-6 when opponents run at least 50 percent of the time — although it also helps that all but one of those teams averaged at least 4.1 yards per carry. This has a greater connection to success than raw rushing yardage; teams that ran for at least 180 yards against the Chiefs in Mahomes’ starts are just 4-6.

TIME OF POSSESSION:

Of course, this is usually wedded to running the ball frequently and effectively. But there is a clear demarcation point.

When the Chiefs hold the football for at least 30 minutes, they’re 16-1 in Mahomes’ starts. A 16-2 record when they lose the time-of-possession statistic but still hold the football for at least 25 minutes takes them to 32-3 in Mahomes’ starts when surpassing the 25-minute mark.

But when the Chiefs hold the ball for fewer than 25 minutes, they are 1-6. The Las Vegas Raiders successfully played keep-away in Week 5; they held the football for 35 minutes and 18 seconds, running the ball 35 times for 144 yards in the process. Derek Carr was also characteristically accurate — completing 71 percent of his passes — and the Raiders ran more than they threw.

UNFORCED CHIEFS ERRORS:

Kansas City getting a bushel of penalties doesn’t necessarily prove damaging in the Mahomes era. The Chiefs are 4-1 when they have at least 100 yards of infractions during his 42 starts and 8-4 when officials whistle them for at least 10 infractions.

When the Chiefs turn over the football at least twice with Mahomes at quarterback, they’re 5-4. They’re 16-3 with exactly one turnover and 12-2 with no giveaways. Turnover margin is also worth noting; Kansas City is 17-3 with Mahomes when it logs a positive giveaway/takeaway margin, 13-3 when it is even and 3-3 when it is negative, including an 0-2 mark with a margin of minus-2 or worse.

But one number to watch that reflects the ability to shoot themselves in the foot is first downs given up by penalty. When Kansas City allows at least four first downs because of its own infractions in Mahomes’ starts, the team’s record is just 3-4. Their Week 5 loss to Las Vegas is not among those seven games, but penalties did play a part in it, as penalties wiped out two Kansas City touchdowns, giving the Raiders a window to capitalize. A year ago, they might have frittered away that chance. But this month, an improved Raiders team seized the opportunity in a 40-32 win.

This is where the game can serve as a measuring stick for the Broncos. If all of the Chiefs’ pistons fire without flaw, the Broncos’ chances to win are dim. But if the Chiefs are a bit off — as they were against the Raiders — are the Broncos good enough to capitalize?

Las Vegas was. Perhaps on Sunday, we’ll find out if Denver is, too.