Broncos Roundtable: How Denver can beat Kansas City on Sunday and in the future

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Riding a two-game win streak, the Denver Broncos’ season has life.

But will the Broncos’ momentum be able to carry them to an upset victory of the defending Super Bowl Champions on Sunday?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down along with a long-term formula to beating the Kansas City Chiefs.

HOW DO YOU BUILD THE BRONCOS TO BEAT THE CHIEFS LONG TERM?

Zac

Build a dominant offense — Fight fire with fire. Look, the Broncos have tried fighting the Chiefs’ enormous offensive fire with water over the past few years by spending, spending, spending on the defensive side of the ball in an attempt to build a dominant defense to slow Kansas City down. And it has not worked.

Not only has it not worked against the Chiefs — where the Broncos have lost their past nine games — but the formula of allocating a large number of resources on the defensive side of the ball hasn’t worked for Denver against the rest of the league as the Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since 2015.

That’s why a drastic change in philosophy needs to take place to make the Broncos an offensive football team again. The good thing is, John Elway has already begun that process over the past two seasons.

It doesn’t just give Denver the best chance of making it back to the playoffs, but it also gives them the best shot at taking down the Chiefs.

Since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starting quarterback, the Chiefs have a total of 10 losses. In eight of those losses, their opponent has scored 31 points or more. Only twice have the Chiefs lost when their opponent didn’t top 30 points.

Just two weeks ago, the Las Vegas Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season by putting 40 on the scoreboard.

The way to compete with the Chiefs isn’t by slowing them down. It’s by having an offense that can drop over 30 points per game and keep up with Mahomes and Andy Reid.

In fact, the last time the Broncos dropped 30 points against the Chiefs was the last time they beat them. A guy by the name of Peyton Manning was Denver’s quarterback that game.

Mase

Elite quarterback, balanced team — It starts with Drew Lock, period. His development is the single most important aspect of determining whether the Broncos can mount a successful long-term challenge to the Chiefs for hegemony in the AFC West.

But beyond that, what teams that have beaten the Chiefs have shown is an ability to make key stops, control the clock, capitalize when Kansas City is just a bit off and show an explosive threat to force the Chiefs defense to hedge its bets.

Take the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5. They held the football for 35 minutes and 18 seconds, had three drives that consumed over five minutes apiece, ran for 144 yards, at one point forced four punts in five series and had the knockdown punch in the form of a 72-yard Derek Carr-to-Henry Ruggs III touchdown strike. But all that might not have been enough unless the Chiefs had committed penalties that wiped two touchdowns off the board.

Possession is nine-tenths of the law against the Chiefs; with Mahomes as the starter, the Chiefs are 1-6 when the opponent holds the ball for at least 35 minutes. That requires an offense that can complement an efficient quarterback with a steady run game and a defense that can force some quick stops, putting the Chiefs into chase mode — where they are one-dimensional with the pass. Kansas City is 3-9 in Mahomes’ starts when they don’t run the football on at least one-third of their snaps.

Simply trying to fight Kansas City’s fire with fire will only result in getting burned in a shootout.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS VS CHIEFS (-9.5)

Zac

Chiefs 30, Broncos 23 — Last year, the Broncos put up nine points against the Chiefs. In two games. Nine total points. Nine.

So dropping 23 on Sunday in one game would be a major improvement for Denver from last year. But the magic number to beat the Chiefs is 31. If the Broncos can hit that number on offense, they’ll win. But Denver will fall one score short of that on Sunday and thus drop their 10th-straight game to Kansas City.

For the Broncos to pull off the big-time upset at home, they’ll need to leave Brandon McManus on the bench for the majority of the game. Field goals beat the New England Patriots in Week 6, but it certainly won’t beat the Chiefs.

The Broncos’ offense will have to get into the end zone instead of settling for field goals and Vic Fangio will have to make a bold decision or two to go for it on fourth down instead of settling for three.

With the potential firepower of Drew Lock and the Broncos’ talented young offense, Denver has their best shot of beating the Chiefs they’ve had in many years. But the odds are still certainly not in their favor.

Mase

Chiefs 30, Broncos 21 —  The Chiefs have won 14 of their last 15 games, with an average score of 31-18. As they showed against Houston in Week 1, they’re as capable of breaking 30 points when they must rely on the run as they are when Mahomes wings it. But just as significant a development for the Chiefs in completing their journey from contender to championship team has been that their once-abject defense has become capable of making enough stops to win. Kansas City has limited foes to 20 or fewer points in 11 of those 15 games.

The Broncos could play well, show ample signs of progress toward better results against the Chiefs and build momentum for a strong run in the next several weeks … and yet it might not be enough if the Chiefs are on-point.