Andre Burakovsky's new deal in Colorado is great for both sides

The Avs announced at the crack of dawn today (I’m a late riser, sue me) that Andre Burakovsky had agreed to terms on a new two-year contract. The contract will carry an AAV of $4.9M and is the first significant move of the offseason for the Avs.

In the breakdown of the contract, Burakovsky gets $4.4M in salary this year and $5.4M in year two. This was the most important contract of the offseason for Colorado in order to know what kind of money they have to play with.

While getting Burakovsky’s contract done was important for Colorado’s offseason, it’s also a great deal for both sides.

Burakovsky has six years already recorded in the NHL, making this his last year of restricted free agency. It’s rare that a player with his experience is still trying to prove his worth but the way it unfolded has him exactly in that awkward spot.

The Avs are banking on his expanded role in Colorado that led to career highs across the board is real but they aren’t going all-in with it. There have been too many one-season wonders in NHL history to believe that a player’s breakout in his sixth year, even with the circumstances being what they were, is something you can rely on moving forward.

Registering a career-high in goals, assists, points and then doubling his career playoff points in just 15 games (he had 56 postseason games played in Washington) was enough for Colorado to raise his salary from $3.2M to the $4.9M AAV he gets now.

The deal rewards Burakovsky for the great season but also protects the organization from it being an anomaly. If Burakovsky can repeat the feat next year, the Avalanche can sort out their contracts with Gabe Landeskog and Cale Makar and then engage in extension talks with Burakovsky. There would be no reason to wait for Burakovsky to put up another big year of numbers.

If Burakovsky can’t repeat the great year (45 points in 58 games in the regular season followed by 17 points in 15 playoff games), the Avs bought a year of free agency to use his third year in Colorado to figure out what he’s worth on a long-term contract would be.

The reality of the business is that outside of elite players, teams very rarely regret doing short-term contracts but the history of lengthy deals is filled with poor decisions.

Using CapFriendly’s contract comparison tool, Burakovsky’s deal stands out in that it is relatively uncommon for a player his age and caliber to sign such a short deal at this stage of his career. The other short-term contracts that stand out largely look like smart decisions by the teams.

For example, Alex Galchenyuk’s three-year contract received in 2017 after scoring 44 points in 61 games just expired. By that time, he had seasons with 20 and 30 goals on his track record but Montreal played it safe. Galchenyuk ended up on the move and is sitting in the market right now looking for a job. Montreal guarded themselves against his performance not holding up and were correct.

Similarly, the contract Chris Stewart signed with the St. Louis Blues in 2013 after scoring 36 (18 of which were goals) points in 48 games was to guard against the potential of declining performance. As it turned out, that 36-point year was the last time Stewart was an impact player before becoming a journeyman.

To use a more recent Av, Vladislav Namestnikov received a similar two-year contract after being traded to the New York Rangers and coming off a career year when he posted a 20-goal season for the first time in his most prominent role while in Tampa Bay. The Rangers gave him a raise to see what he could do. Namestnikov just completed that contract in Colorado and is currently a free agent.

These are the examples of a player taking the short deal and it not working out. Of course, there’s the opposite that is possible. Current free agent Tyler Toffoli just completed a three-year bridge deal that he signed with the LA Kings back when they were competitive (it feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?). Things were up and down for Toffoli but they finished on the upswing and he’s in line to cash in as one of the market’s best available forwards.

Another player who took the shorter deal and turned it into a lucrative long-term deal was Brandon Sutter. While he signed a two-year deal with Pittsburgh and was traded to Vancouver upon its completion, he landed a five-year deal from the Canucks on the other side of it.

All these examples show is that the two-year deal is smart business for both player and organization. Especially in a situation such as this where the expanded role for Burakovsky directly coincided with the increased production, it’s good for Colorado to see what they have. It’s good for Burakovsky because he’s going to make just shy of $10M the next two years and has a chance to set himself up to be one of the premier free agents in two years (if he so chooses).

This is a good and fair deal for everyone involved. Might the Avs have to pay a hefty raise in a year or two if Burakovsky’s ascent continues? Absolutely. If that’s the case, he’ll have proven to be worth the investment and they’ll sleep just fine making it. For Burakovsky, the carrot of the long-term deal continues to be dangled in front of him, removing whatever temptation of complacency might exist.

Now, to get to the rest of the offseason. Has Taylor Hall signed anywhere yet?

NOTE: Valeri Nichushkin also signed a two-year, $5M ($2.5M AAV) deal. Plenty of this article also applies to Nichushkin.