Since Vic Fangio took over as the Broncos’ head coach, his defense has been missing something in which his best units usually excel:
Takeaways.
In six of his previous eight seasons over the last decade as defensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears, Fangio’s defenses were in the top half of the league in takeaways. Four of those six seasons saw them in the NFL’s top six, including two years in which his units led the league in forcing turnovers: 2011 and 2018.
But in Denver, his teams have logged just 19 takeaways — 17 in 2019 and two through four games this year. Only the Chargers and Raiders have fewer in that span. And for this season alone, the Broncos’ two takeaways are tied for the second-fewest in the league; only Houston has fewer, with zero.
“I take full responsibility for that,” defensive coordinator Ed Donatell said of the lack of turnovers. “We had a tough month; it wasn’t good and it wasn’t what we wanted. But really the only thing that matters is what we do this week to help our team win.
“The major emphasis is that we have to catch the ball. We had a couple balls in our hands, a couple tips that we’ve got to come down with, we’ve got to attack runners. But that’s a point of emphasis, we need to do it and we want to set up our offense for points. They put up a lot of points last week without us even helping them. If we help them, good things are going to happen.”
If the offense can’t protect the football — and with instability at quarterback, it hasn’t; Denver is third in the league in turnovers — a lack of takeaways puts the Broncos into a vicious cycle that becomes a whirlpool of doom.
Consider this: Seven of eight Broncos turnovers have led directly to points. Only Brett Rypien’s late-game interception against the Buccaneers in Week 3 didn’t result in some kind of eventual score, because Tampa Bay was able to run out the clock on the 28-10 win.
Throw in a fumbled punt snap that led to a Pittsburgh safety and a blocked punt that gave the Bucs a short-field touchdown, and 41 of 98 points allowed by the Broncos began with turnovers or preventable special-teams gaffes.
The offense might not get all of its issues fixed without more lineup stability. That leaves it on the defense to fix the glitch and generate takeaways to make up for any issues elsewhere.
Fangio has experienced this before — in his first two years with the Bears. Often playing from behind and in the early stages of a defensive rebuild, Fangio’s 2015 and 2016 defenses ranked 28th and 32nd, respectively, in takeaways, before a third-year leap to 13th.
Eventually, they come.
“We’ve just got to keep pounding away at it and find a way to get them,” Fangio said. “They haven’t been coming our way, but we’ve got to make a conscious effort to get more.”
An opportunity to change that comes on Monday — no matter which quarterback the Patriots use in the unexpected matinee at Gillette Stadium.
Last Monday in Kansas City, understudy passers Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham were fountains of turnovers — as could be expected. Each gave away the ball twice in the Patriots’ 26-10 loss at Arrowhead Stadium.
But the Broncos have also averaged two takeaways per game directly from Cam Newton in their three games against him — a 2012 win in Charlotte, Super Bowl 50 and the 21-20 win that opened the Broncos’ 2016 season.
Last week, Fangio’s defense didn’t need to force turnovers to impact the game, and the Broncos won with a minus-3 turnover margin, That snapped a 13-game losing streak in games with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse. That streak began after the afore-mentioned win over the Panthers to open the 2016 campaign, when the Broncos won with a minus-3 margin.
“We lost that battle, but we found a way to win the game,” safety Justin Simmons said of the Jets game, “which is a huge confidence boost for our team.”
It is, but it’s also something that isn’t sustainable.
Still, pressure is a root cause of turnovers. The Broncos demonstrated that in their three previous games against Newton-led teams; 16 total sacks — including six in Super Bowl 50 — left Newton rattled and led to the giveaways.
“Our pass rush needs to be good enough to disrupt the passing game to cause some interceptions,” Fangio said. “We’ve got to have coverage that’s tight enough to get interceptions. We’ve got to be searching for the ball when it’s in an opponent’s hands. We’ve just got to do all the things that we emphasize, and the players have been emphasizing it too, they just haven’t come our way at this point.”
Denver didn’t have to blitz often to pressure Newton in those games in previous years. They likely will on Monday. But if the result can be the same — even without Von Miller stalking off the edge — the Broncos could have their second win, and an end to their takeaway drought.
